What would it take to fake the ISS?

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Slemon

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What would it take to fake the ISS?
« on: November 21, 2018, 06:00:02 PM »
This is a thread dedicated to actually analysing an FE belief some people hold. If all you're interested in doing is insulting FET or claiming victory in one post or just generally not contributing, please hit back. If you're confident this won't work then contribute, add facts that hold from an FE perspective to help calculate, and don't clutter the thread so there's a simple, easy read-through disproof. If on the other hand you think it could work, let's see if that can be proved and, in the same vein, it's an easy read-through of a counter to an RE argument.

As I imagine everyone here knows, the International Space Station, or at least a light claimed to be it, can be seen on Earth
https://spotthestation.nasa.gov/sightings/
http://www.isstracker.com/

The ISS completes a journey in 92 minutes.

Goals of this thread
To determine the basic specs of the ISS. Things like how fast it needs to be going, whether there are any opportunities for it to be refueled, and potentially even height/size. Does it need to be in space? How feasible is it to function in atmosphere?

Things to do
If we can work out the distance along the ground the ISS appears to take, then on a flat Earth that easily tells us how much distance it covers itself and so its speed. Ideally we'll get a lower bound, so that we have the best chance of making the ISS work.
With that, we can calculate what could happen when it's out of view of land over the ocean (for however long that is), what acceleration would be needed for it to be replaced with a fuelled up version etc, or consider in-air refuelling. We can also determine how much force from air resistance and such it's under, and how that compares with objects like planes.
Calculate a minimum altitude, and from that an estimate as to mass to work out what forces (at a basic level) would be needed.

Caveats
Initially we'll work with basic principles as those will be most persuasive. If necessary, concepts like aetheric whirlpools and laevorotatory subquarks can be included if the conclusion is otherwise too unwieldy.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2018, 06:14:28 PM »
I appreciate that you started a new thread on this lol. Is it not enough evidence that we can see it?
This is just flat out fun!

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Slemon

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2018, 06:19:40 PM »
I appreciate that you started a new thread on this lol. Is it not enough evidence that we can see it?
Slightly different issue.
And not inherently, all that proves is that there's something there. For all we know it's just a souped-up jet. Takes a bit of legwork to show it's any more than that.
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Bullwinkle

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2018, 06:22:58 PM »
I appreciate that you started a new thread on this lol. Is it not enough evidence that we can see it?

Obviously you mean 'I' when you say 'we', unless you just believe anyone who says anything.

If you were told that god's shiny butthole was going to pass overhead at 7:48:23pm and you saw something shiny pass overhead at 7:48:23pm, would you believe you saw god's shiny butthole?

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JackBlack

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2018, 06:28:25 PM »
The first thing you would need to determine is if the ISS is an actual physical object (or potentially some projected image) which appears to multiple people at different locations at once, or if it is a projected image such that people looking at "it" from different locations are actually seeing different images.

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Bullwinkle

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2018, 06:31:06 PM »
The first thing you would need to determine is if the ISS is an actual physical object (or potentially some projected image) which appears to multiple people at different locations at once, or if it is a projected image such that people looking at "it" from different locations are actually seeing different images.

No, you are wrong.

First you would need to determine if what you see is the ISS.



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Slemon

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2018, 06:36:27 PM »
The first thing you would need to determine is if the ISS is an actual physical object (or potentially some projected image) which appears to multiple people at different locations at once, or if it is a projected image such that people looking at "it" from different locations are actually seeing different images.

Like I said, starting with the basic model first. If that proves unwieldy, then we'll get to the more involved alternatives.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Platonius21

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2018, 06:42:17 PM »
Start with the basics.  Good idea.  So the first thing is to know how far it has to travel in its 92 minutes so you can calculate the velocity it has to be moving at.  Easy, and basic  -- take a look at the flat earth map and see how far it has to travel.

Oh -- I forgot. There isn't a flat earth map.

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Bullwinkle

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2018, 06:44:38 PM »
Start with the basics.  Good idea.  So the first thing is to know how far it has to travel in its 92 minutes so you can calculate the velocity it has to be moving at.  Easy, and basic  -- take a look at the flat earth map and see how far it has to travel.

Oh -- I forgot. There isn't a flat earth map.

First you need to establish the ISS.

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Platonius21

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2018, 06:51:25 PM »
No you don't need to do that in order to figure out if there actually is one if what you are doing is trying to figure out how to fake one -- that's what the thread asks

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Bullwinkle

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2018, 07:11:02 PM »
No you don't need to do that in order to figure out if there actually is one  . . .

So, you don't need to establish that the ISS exists in order to figure out if there actually is one?

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Platonius21

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2018, 07:17:55 PM »
The question was "What would it take to fake the ISS"?  And then specifies a 92 minute time to complete a pass.  So I assume we are trying to figure out how whatever that is up there is being faked. So I'm suggesting that first thing is to figure out how fast that fake thing has to be moving.

I mean, if you were to use round earth distances to get a first cut at it, the circumference traveled (at, say a 10 mile flight height) would be over 24,000 miles, and to do that in 92 minutes would take an average speed of around 16,000 miles per hour (about Mach 21).  So unless the flat earth map shows it's a lot less distance than that, you pretty much rule out any known jet plane. 

Really -- you need the map to get started on this.  Where is one?

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Quorum

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2018, 08:15:29 PM »
You can just start with satellites, and before you bullshit me with the "oh, its a projected hologram that's projecting on nothing, the giant light that's shining it in the sky is invisible, it never gets distorted by weather or clouds and the projector moves around the entire world somehow!", I think it's common sense that projectors don't work like this.

You can view and predict the orbit of satellites using a telescope. If you're really going to tell me that it's just a random flying object that flies forever, looks exactly like a satellite and moves at the exact speed predicted and just so happens to always be there, with a straight face, there is nothing that can help you, I'm not kidding.

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Bullwinkle

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2018, 08:28:32 PM »

I'm not kidding.

Nobody thinks you are kidding.

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Themightykabool

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #14 on: November 21, 2018, 09:32:16 PM »
I appreciate that you started a new thread on this lol. Is it not enough evidence that we can see it?

Haha solved in first reply.

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rabinoz

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #15 on: November 21, 2018, 10:26:04 PM »
This video shows a way to measure the ISS height using two cameras:

Using Cameras To Measure The Real Altitude Of The Space Station, Scott Manley
If course Scott Manley implicitly uses the sun's great distance as part of his calculations.
Is there a knowledgeable flat-earth supporter that could repeat these for the flat-earth sun height and position?

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Lonegranger

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #16 on: November 21, 2018, 10:51:28 PM »
I appreciate that you started a new thread on this lol. Is it not enough evidence that we can see it?

It’s hardly a case of seeing it, and it’s not just a light in the sky. I was on an Astro photography course in Wales earlier in the year and the guy who ran the course took a great long exposure shot of the ISS, whose outline and overal shape could be determined from the image. It was like a comet with the tail being a series of images of the ISS itself. It was a great shot. I was too busy just watching it streak by.  He held the event at that location as he knew the ISS would be trucking on by at a set time. There are a plethora of apps that will calculate for you the exact time it will be seen from any location.
To recap it’s orbit is know to the exact second.
With even a modest pair of binoculars you can see it pretty clearly.
There is a live feed from it
I’m not sure there needs to be a debate on it as it’s existance is not any doubt. Just look up at the right time in the right place with the right conditions, and it will be there.
The only problem why there is even a discussion on it is it’s one of the FE requirements that it shouldn’t exist. That’s why the question has been slanted toward the possibility of it being a fake, which is of course a total cop out. When you can see it real as you like, the only option left is to cry fake.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2018, 10:55:28 PM by Lonegranger »

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Themightykabool

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #17 on: November 21, 2018, 10:58:29 PM »
Actually, reread the title.
We re not supposed to be debating its existence.
She wants to explore how such a thing could be faked.

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Lonegranger

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2018, 11:27:03 PM »
Actually, reread the title.
We re not supposed to be debating its existence.
She wants to explore how such a thing could be faked.

Ah, my bad..... why would you want to fake it? Other than to meet a FE requirement?

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JackBlack

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2018, 12:51:46 AM »
Ah, my bad..... why would you want to fake it? Other than to meet a FE requirement?
I think the idea is tied to determining if it is real.
If it doesn't take much to fake it, then I assume she will say the ISS isn't evidence against a FE as it can easily be faked from a FE view. If it very difficult, then depending upon how she decides to define evidence she might accept it as evidence against a FE.

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Slemon

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2018, 04:52:35 AM »
Start with the basics.  Good idea.  So the first thing is to know how far it has to travel in its 92 minutes so you can calculate the velocity it has to be moving at.  Easy, and basic  -- take a look at the flat earth map and see how far it has to travel.

Oh -- I forgot. There isn't a flat earth map.
Like I said, all you need's a lower bound. It doesn't have to be a distance people accept as accurate, just so long as they accept it as a lower bound.



Given the common diagram of the ISS' path, presumably corroborated by claimed observation times, a lower bound would be a straight shot around the, say, equator. Certainly not every orbit will necessarily be that, but so long as some are it means those are the speeds it has to be capable of reaching.

For the sake of error, I'll lop 10,000km off the RE measure of the length of the equator. Sure, it's a lot, but in the interests of giving the FE model every chance it seems a pretty good way of getting a lower bound. (Please, leave aside all the arguments of how that distance could or could not be verified, all that matters is that this value is likely less than the truth of any model).
The ISS would then travel at the speed 5,434m/s, or 19,565km/h, or 12,157mph. Still easily supersonic, and considerably faster than the known fastest jet.

However, the fastest unmanned aerial vehicle was the HTV-2 Falcon, at 21,245km/h, so our figure is within the realm of possibility, though whether it can be sustained is a whole other question. There's also the fact that this vehicle's launch altitude was 100 miles, getting it past most air resistance; while this will certainly be something to bear in mind, it does mean that it was technically in space and so may not be acceptable as a recourse.

Of the two HTV-2s launched, the mission was planned to be just 30 minutes which allows only for a partial journey. The first disintegrated after 9 minutes, the second lost contact also after nine minutes and crashed after three more. This was in 2010.

Trig can probably get us our altitude, using two distances on land that can both observe the ISS at a set time, using the angle of inclination. At the very least it's an estimate, possibly in terms of size, so we can see how feasible our Falcon comparison is.

Remaining questions:
Altitude, air resistance, possibility of sustained flight.
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Platonius21

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2018, 05:43:28 AM »

For the sake of error, I'll lop 10,000km off the RE measure of the length of the equator. Sure, it's a lot, but in the interests of giving the FE model every chance it seems a pretty good way of getting a lower bound.
<snip>
Remaining questions:
Altitude, air resistance, possibility of sustained flight.

Wait a minute -- I thought we were starting with the basics.  The first, most basic question still remains: The distance traveled.  You can't just guess at a distance in order to "give the FE model a chance". You have to know the distance in order to get the velocity. You have to know the velocity in order to know what kind of vehicle (if any) could be used, and to know if air resistance is a problem.  If you start with a guess, the whole exercise is a guess.

Just tell me where I can find a map to get the distance from -- what's the problem here?

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Slemon

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2018, 05:50:11 AM »

For the sake of error, I'll lop 10,000km off the RE measure of the length of the equator. Sure, it's a lot, but in the interests of giving the FE model every chance it seems a pretty good way of getting a lower bound.
<snip>
Remaining questions:
Altitude, air resistance, possibility of sustained flight.

Wait a minute -- I thought we were starting with the basics.  The first, most basic question still remains: The distance traveled.  You can't just guess at a distance in order to "give the FE model a chance". You have to know the distance in order to get the velocity. You have to know the velocity in order to know what kind of vehicle (if any) could be used, and to know if air resistance is a problem.  If you start with a guess, the whole exercise is a guess.

Just tell me where I can find a map to get the distance from -- what's the problem here?
Like I said, it's a lower bound; there's a difference between that and a guess. Chances are that distance will have to be accepted as a lower bound.
If you want to revive the tired old map debate, start your own thread on it rather than derail this one, or better yet search for the truly tiresome number of times that discussion's been had. It doesn't really matter so long as we have the aforementioned lower bound.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Platonius21

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2018, 06:10:26 AM »

For the sake of error, I'll lop 10,000km off the RE measure of the length of the equator. Sure, it's a lot, but in the interests of giving the FE model every chance it seems a pretty good way of getting a lower bound.
<snip>
Remaining questions:
Altitude, air resistance, possibility of sustained flight.

Wait a minute -- I thought we were starting with the basics.  The first, most basic question still remains: The distance traveled.  You can't just guess at a distance in order to "give the FE model a chance". You have to know the distance in order to get the velocity. You have to know the velocity in order to know what kind of vehicle (if any) could be used, and to know if air resistance is a problem.  If you start with a guess, the whole exercise is a guess.

Just tell me where I can find a map to get the distance from -- what's the problem here?
Like I said, it's a lower bound; there's a difference between that and a guess. Chances are that distance will have to be accepted as a lower bound.
If you want to revive the tired old map debate, start your own thread on it rather than derail this one, or better yet search for the truly tiresome number of times that discussion's been had. It doesn't really matter so long as we have the aforementioned lower bound.

So, you just pronounce a number as a lower bound and it's not a guess. And it will have to be accepted as a lower bound. Because you say so.  And I'm not trying to start a debate on the FE map, I just want to know where I can find one because it's needed to get this analysis going and show how the ISIS is being faked. If this whole exercise is based on guesswork, no one will believe it -- that's not what you want is it?

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Slemon

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #24 on: November 22, 2018, 06:18:55 AM »

For the sake of error, I'll lop 10,000km off the RE measure of the length of the equator. Sure, it's a lot, but in the interests of giving the FE model every chance it seems a pretty good way of getting a lower bound.
<snip>
Remaining questions:
Altitude, air resistance, possibility of sustained flight.

Wait a minute -- I thought we were starting with the basics.  The first, most basic question still remains: The distance traveled.  You can't just guess at a distance in order to "give the FE model a chance". You have to know the distance in order to get the velocity. You have to know the velocity in order to know what kind of vehicle (if any) could be used, and to know if air resistance is a problem.  If you start with a guess, the whole exercise is a guess.

Just tell me where I can find a map to get the distance from -- what's the problem here?
Like I said, it's a lower bound; there's a difference between that and a guess. Chances are that distance will have to be accepted as a lower bound.
If you want to revive the tired old map debate, start your own thread on it rather than derail this one, or better yet search for the truly tiresome number of times that discussion's been had. It doesn't really matter so long as we have the aforementioned lower bound.

So, you just pronounce a number as a lower bound and it's not a guess. And it will have to be accepted as a lower bound. Because you say so.  And I'm not trying to start a debate on the FE map, I just want to know where I can find one because it's needed to get this analysis going and show how the ISIS is being faked. If this whole exercise is based on guesswork, no one will believe it -- that's not what you want is it?
Again, a map isn't necessary, just a very vague ballpark. No one is going to tell you that the distance from the US to UK is a couple of miles, for example. If you really want to get technical there's more reason to think the FE equator is longer rather than shorter than 40,000km due to the area it'd need to contain, but again, exact figures aren't what's important here. We are trying to determine if there is any possibility of this working, and in that case bounds are so much more useful.

If you want to get technical, sure, people are free to believe that the ISS' path is less than 30,000km and by extension that the equator is less than that, if that's the conclusion that ends up being drawn so be it. But whatever happens, at the end we can put it all together and get a list of parameters that can easily be tweaked depending on what someone finds reasonable. If they believe 25,000km is a closer bet then that can be plugged in, and the subsequent requirements determined.

But again, please don't derail this thread. If you have a valid reason or have seen FEers claim a smaller equator, rather than larger as I have, then please provide it. If not then I really couldn't care less about this distraction. A map isn't needed, bounds are. If we tie this to a map then it's going to be utterly useless for those that accept a different map.
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JimmyTheCrab

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #25 on: November 22, 2018, 09:11:42 AM »
For the purposes of this thread I presume we are discounting any independent photos of the ISS in orbit?  As of course the fakers would then have not just have something up there in the right time and place, but something that looked exactly like the ISS as well.

If we are discounting this, then I presume the only way to fake it is via some kind of relay of multiple aircraft.  Anyone want to calculate what kind of altitude/velocity they would need to maintain to look like the ISS?

I've no idea how would smoothly handle the switch from one aircraft to the next....
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Slemon

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #26 on: November 22, 2018, 09:33:26 AM »
For the purposes of this thread I presume we are discounting any independent photos of the ISS in orbit?  As of course the fakers would then have not just have something up there in the right time and place, but something that looked exactly like the ISS as well.

If we are discounting this, then I presume the only way to fake it is via some kind of relay of multiple aircraft.  Anyone want to calculate what kind of altitude/velocity they would need to maintain to look like the ISS?

I've no idea how would smoothly handle the switch from one aircraft to the next....
Fair point, probably should at the question of how it appears the way it does to consideration. I was initially focused on the more readily apparent traits, have to get those working first before we start taking photos through telescopes.

As far as sustained flight goes, the two options I can think of are refuelling in the air, and having enough redundancies for any repairs to be done similarly, or there being a switchover when the ISS is over the sea etc. The number of potential observers from the sea is greatly diminished from over the land, the chances of it being seen by anyone with any interest in what it could mean is minimal.
In the first case we'd need a second craft to be able to accelerate to the same speed as the ISS in order to transfer fuel. In the second, it's the acceleration/deceleration that's going to be trickier.

Though this does raise another question. The ISS appears as a particularly bright light in the sky; is this something the ISS can choose to switch on and off, a giant bank of floodlights of whatever, or is it a natural result of the altitude it's at? The former would at least make the switchover easier (the replacement has much longer to accelerate before it becomes visible, with some coordination it could be done fairly smoothly), though the latter is potentially problematic in models with a self-illuminating moon and so no established means for light to reach and reflect off the ISS.
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Platonius21

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #27 on: November 22, 2018, 09:43:19 AM »
  Anyone want to calculate what kind of altitude/velocity they would need to maintain to look like the ISS?

That's exactly why I said we need to start with the distance involved in a single transit -- it's the only way to calculate the needed velocity to transit in 92 minutes.  Nobody want's to accept the distance RE theory provides, but otherwise it seems there is only a guess.  Nobody will be convinced of anything based on guesswork.

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Slemon

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #28 on: November 22, 2018, 09:45:33 AM »
  Anyone want to calculate what kind of altitude/velocity they would need to maintain to look like the ISS?

That's exactly why I said we need to start with the distance involved in a single transit -- it's the only way to calculate the needed velocity to transit in 92 minutes.  Nobody want's to accept the distance RE theory provides, but otherwise it seems there is only a guess.  Nobody will be convinced of anything based on guesswork.

If you don't know the difference between a guess and a bound I can't help you.
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JimmyTheCrab

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Re: What would it take to fake the ISS?
« Reply #29 on: November 22, 2018, 09:48:13 AM »
As far as sustained flight goes, the two options I can think of are refuelling in the air, and having enough redundancies for any repairs to be done similarly, or there being a switchover when the ISS is over the sea etc. The number of potential observers from the sea is greatly diminished from over the land, the chances of it being seen by anyone with any interest in what it could mean is minimal.
In the first case we'd need a second craft to be able to accelerate to the same speed as the ISS in order to transfer fuel. In the second, it's the acceleration/deceleration that's going to be trickier.

Though this does raise another question. The ISS appears as a particularly bright light in the sky; is this something the ISS can choose to switch on and off, a giant bank of floodlights of whatever, or is it a natural result of the altitude it's at? The former would at least make the switchover easier (the replacement has much longer to accelerate before it becomes visible, with some coordination it could be done fairly smoothly),
Yes, the lighting aspect was troubling me, but I thought I'd leave that until the logistics were solved.

However, the illumination aspect could be tied up with the logistics.  As one aircraft took the baton from another, it could  illuminate while the other went dark...

Quote
though the latter is potentially problematic in models with a self-illuminating moon and so no established means for light to reach and reflect off the ISS.
It reflects sunlight, not moonlight, so is this relevant?

Also, if this is an aircraft flying at a much lower altitude, then it's not going to reflect anything really, and must be self-illuminating.
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