Hurricane tracks

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Cartesian

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #90 on: September 23, 2013, 12:02:05 PM »
My point is this. Knowing just Coriolis effect, I can predict with 100% certitude that if there is a hurricane anywhere in the northern hemisphere anytime then it will swirl counterclockwise. Whereas using the same knowledge, I cannot tell exactly where a storm would hit. There are many factors involved in determining the trajectory of a storm, and all these can only be roughly predicted with some degrees of certainty within the next few hours.

For example, this is the path of Katrina in 2005



National Hurricane Center did not even mention New Orleans or Louisiana when the storm was first detected (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.004.shtml)
« Last Edit: September 23, 2013, 12:03:47 PM by Cartesian »
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rottingroom

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #91 on: September 23, 2013, 12:07:11 PM »
My point is this. Knowing just Coriolis effect, I can predict with 100% certitude that if there is a hurricane anywhere in the northern hemisphere anytime then it will swirl counterclockwise. Whereas using the same knowledge, I cannot tell exactly where a storm would hit. There are many factors involved in determining the trajectory of a storm, and all these can only be roughly predicted with some degrees of certainty within the next few hours.

For example, this is the path of Katrina in 2005



National Hurricane Center did not even mention New Orleans or Louisiana when the storm was first detected (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.004.shtml)

Yes of course there are other factors, but notice that Coriolis really starts to take effect once it starts to dissipate. That means that other forces are not as prevalent at this point.

Also, the northern hemisphere has swirls in an anti-cyclonic rotation. That is the same as clockwise, not counter-clockwise.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2013, 12:10:14 PM by rottingroom »

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Cartesian

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #92 on: September 23, 2013, 12:38:57 PM »
Yes of course there are other factors, but notice that Coriolis really starts to take effect once it starts to dissipate. That means that other forces are not as prevalent at this point.

Also, the northern hemisphere has swirls in an anti-cyclonic rotation. That is the same as clockwise, not counter-clockwise.

Coriolis effect started as soon as it formed cyclone.
Regarding anticyclones, as far as I know they don't cause hurricanes.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2013, 12:42:36 PM by Cartesian »
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rottingroom

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #93 on: September 23, 2013, 01:11:58 PM »
Yes of course there are other factors, but notice that Coriolis really starts to take effect once it starts to dissipate. That means that other forces are not as prevalent at this point.

Also, the northern hemisphere has swirls in an anti-cyclonic rotation. That is the same as clockwise, not counter-clockwise.

Coriolis effect started as soon as it formed cyclone.
Regarding anticyclones, as far as I know they don't cause hurricanes.

eh, turns out your right about cyclones, I don't know what I was thinking.

As far as Coriolis, I agree that coriolis is working as soon as the cyclone is formed. I'm just suggesting that that it has an easier time diverting to the right in the northern hemisphere once it hits land. This is also where the westerlies are, which coincidentally are the result of convection cells which in turn are caused by divergence and convergence aloft and at the surface as well as Coriolis.

Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #94 on: September 23, 2013, 08:38:42 PM »
The Earth isn't spinning. The reason hurricanes spin in opposite directions is because the SUN acts like a jet engine, stirring up the air behind it as it orbits above Earth.

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rottingroom

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #95 on: September 23, 2013, 08:44:50 PM »
The Earth isn't spinning. The reason hurricanes spin in opposite directions is because the SUN acts like a jet engine, stirring up the air behind it as it orbits above Earth.

Way to disregard basic observation. Why do you even try to think about this kind of stuff? You obviously don't even care.

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Cartesian

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #96 on: September 24, 2013, 02:08:51 AM »
The Earth isn't spinning. The reason hurricanes spin in opposite directions is because the SUN acts like a jet engine, stirring up the air behind it as it orbits above Earth.

I am sure you, or someone who told you about this, are able to provide more detailed explanation why the Sun - while rotating daily to produce day and night and moving up and down the equator to produce summer and winter - always stirs the air counterclockwise anywhere in the northern hemisphere, and clockwise in the southern hemisphere 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. Of course you will include a diagram too, won't you.

And also, if it stirs the air like you said then why don't we have hurricane all the time? 
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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #97 on: September 24, 2013, 07:23:33 AM »
Cartesian,
The warm air from the Equator is drawn toward the colder air in the North and South, creating a counter-clockwise spiral in the North and a clockwise spiral in the South.  It's caused by the sun circling, not the Earth spinning.


Rottingman stated in the Google Doodle FP thread:
"Cyclone development is dependent on the temperature of water, yes. They develop all year along the equator, but as far as N. America is concerned, those same cyclone's usually only reach our coasts during the summer months because it is during that time that it is warm enough for those cyclone's to be sustained. During the winter, they still develop near the equator and work their way up toward our east coast but  simply dissipate before ever reaching land.

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Cartesian

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #98 on: September 24, 2013, 07:33:03 AM »
Cartesian,
The warm air from the Equator is drawn toward the colder air in the North and South, creating a counter-clockwise spiral in the North and a clockwise spiral in the South.  It's caused by the sun circling, not the Earth spinning.

I am sorry but I still don't get it. How is it counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere? A diagram for the benefit of all please.
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rottingroom

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #99 on: September 24, 2013, 07:33:33 AM »
Cartesian,
The warm air from the Equator is drawn toward the colder air in the North and South, creating a counter-clockwise spiral in the North and a clockwise spiral in the South.  It's caused by the sun circling, not the Earth spinning.


Rottingman stated in the Google Doodle FP thread:
"Cyclone development is dependent on the temperature of water, yes. They develop all year along the equator, but as far as N. America is concerned, those same cyclone's usually only reach our coasts during the summer months because it is during that time that it is warm enough for those cyclone's to be sustained. During the winter, they still develop near the equator and work their way up toward our east coast but  simply dissipate before ever reaching land.

How does this contradict what Cartesian has said?

They still develop in the winter in the northern hemisphere. You just don't hear about it on the news because they don't come to N. America because they dissipate before getting there. The opposing turning that we observe (which is what we are talking about) and the paths of these tracks are still opposite depending on which side of the equator they develop. 

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Cartesian

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #100 on: September 24, 2013, 07:34:42 AM »
Rottingman stated in the Google Doodle FP thread:
"Cyclone development is dependent on the temperature of water, yes. They develop all year along the equator, but as far as N. America is concerned, those same cyclone's usually only reach our coasts during the summer months because it is during that time that it is warm enough for those cyclone's to be sustained. During the winter, they still develop near the equator and work their way up toward our east coast but  simply dissipate before ever reaching land.

If you are trying to explain the swirling direction based on the hemisphere then I can't see it.
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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #101 on: September 24, 2013, 01:21:18 PM »
The warm air from the Equator mixes with the cold air to the North....one direction.
The warm air from the Equator mixes with the cold air to the South...the other direction.
Hence, OPPOSITE directions.
Opposite spirals.

Rottingman's (and the mainstream's) explanation makes less sense for the simple fact that hurricanes wouldn't tend to be "seasonal" if it was caused by the Earth supposedly spinning.  If that were the case, they'd occur more often year round.

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rottingroom

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #102 on: September 24, 2013, 01:44:56 PM »
The warm air from the Equator mixes with the cold air to the North....one direction.
The warm air from the Equator mixes with the cold air to the South...the other direction.
Hence, OPPOSITE directions.
Opposite spirals.

Rottingman's (and the mainstream's) explanation makes less sense for the simple fact that hurricanes wouldn't tend to be "seasonal" if it was caused by the Earth supposedly spinning.  If that were the case, they'd occur more often year round.

Where do you get your info from? There are more places in the world than N. America.

- Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th each year. 97% of all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic fall within this period of time. The month most likely to have a hurricane is September.

- Northeast Pacific Hurricane Season begins on May 15th and ends on November 30th each year.

- Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season has no official start or end date since storms commonly occur all year long.

- The North Indian Cyclone Season begins in April and lasts until June. There is typically another heightened period of activity from late September to early December.

Worldwide, tropical cyclone activity peaks in late summer, when the difference between temperatures aloft and sea surface temperatures is the greatest. However, each particular basin has its own seasonal patterns. On a worldwide scale, May is the least active month, while September is the most active. It has more to do with the temperature of the water than it does the heat of the sun on a given day.

Water temperate caused by the sun is a factor in tropical storm development but it is not the only factor. While six factors appear to be necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions:

- In most situations, water temperatures of at least 79.7 °F are needed down to a depth of at least 50 m (160 ft), waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms.

- Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.

- High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop.

- Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation.

- Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 345 mi (or five degrees of latitude) away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Because the Coriolis effect initiates and maintains their rotation, tropical cyclones rarely form or move within 5 degrees of the equator, where the effect is weakest.

- Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather. Tropical cyclones will not form spontaneously.


From wikipedia regarding Coriolis:

"The Earth's rotation imparts an acceleration known as the Coriolis effect, Coriolis acceleration, or colloquially, Coriolis force. This acceleration causes cyclonic systems to turn towards the poles in the absence of strong steering currents. The poleward portion of a tropical cyclone contains easterly winds, and the Coriolis effect pulls them slightly more poleward. The westerly winds on the equatorward portion of the cyclone pull slightly towards the equator, but, because the Coriolis effect weakens toward the equator, the net drag on the cyclone is poleward. Thus, tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere usually turn north (before being blown east), and tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere usually turn south (before being blown east) when no other effects counteract the Coriolis effect."

So yes... it is about the sun's heat, or rather the accumulation of heat by the end of summer combined with the colder temperatures aloft creating this inversion. Hurricanes are dependent on that but they are also dependent on Coriolis and it is the Coriolis that gives them their rotation. Not the sun.

Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #103 on: September 24, 2013, 02:21:09 PM »
I wasn't talking about just N. America.  All you did by cut and pasting all that was reiterate that the TEMPERATURE causes them, not the Earth spinning.  Also, I do not care what Wikipedia says about the Coriolis effect because right off the top it says Earth rotates, which is does not.

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rottingroom

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #104 on: September 24, 2013, 02:24:08 PM »
I wasn't talking about just N. America.  All you did by cut and pasting all that was reiterate that the TEMPERATURE causes them, not the Earth spinning.  Also, I do not care what Wikipedia says about the Coriolis effect because right off the top it says Earth rotates, which is does not.

Water temperature. Not direct heat from the sun. Incidentally this water temp has nothing to do with the rotation. Also that temperature is only 1 of 6 criteria. What source would you like? NOAA? NWS? JTWC? Your pick.

Even in N. America, why is that the most active part of the season in September instead of a hotter time in the summer? Why are they active all year long in the Indian Ocean?

Your hypothesis that it is directly by the sun is silly.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2013, 02:51:20 PM by rottingroom »

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Cartesian

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #105 on: September 25, 2013, 01:37:33 AM »
The warm air from the Equator mixes with the cold air to the North....one direction.
The warm air from the Equator mixes with the cold air to the South...the other direction.
Hence, OPPOSITE directions.
Opposite spirals.

Mixing warm and cold air on a stationary flat earth doesn't explain why the hurricanes spiral in one direction or another.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2013, 03:12:46 AM by Cartesian »
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Son of Orospu

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #106 on: September 25, 2013, 05:43:44 AM »
The warm air from the Equator mixes with the cold air to the North....one direction.
The warm air from the Equator mixes with the cold air to the South...the other direction.
Hence, OPPOSITE directions.
Opposite spirals.

Mixing warm and cold air on a stationary flat earth doesn't explain why the hurricanes spiral in one direction or another.

I am skeptical about them spinning one direction or the other. 

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Cartesian

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #107 on: September 25, 2013, 06:36:36 AM »
I am skeptical about them spinning one direction or the other.

When the sun is in the Northern hemisphere, hurricanes spin in one direction and when the sun is in the Southern hemisphere, hurricanes spin the opposite direction.

If you are that certain with your claim then I am sure you are able to provide us with two aerial photos of hurricanes taken from the same hemisphere showing two different spinning direction. It has to be from the same hemisphere. We also need to see the source of your pictures just to verify that both pictures are indeed from the same hemisphere.
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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #108 on: September 25, 2013, 07:01:51 AM »
Cartesian,
I see that you took that post from the Google Doodle thread.  I clearly stated in my following post on that thread that I did not mean spirals in opposite directions in the SAME hemisphere.  Here is my post from that thread:

Re: Google Doodle - 9/18 - Foucault Pendulum 

« Reply #58 on: September 23, 2013, 05:17:54 AM »
 
"I guess I should've been clearer.  I didn't mean they spin opposites directions in the same hemisphere.  I meant they spin in opposite directions in opposite hemispheres only because the sun MOVES closer to one hemisphere than the other, depending on the season.  The weather channel is always saying "hurricane season" so naturally, I figured they only occur in the given hemisphere at the given season.  Am I wrong?"

Most people here are fully aware that hurricanes spin in opposite directions respectively, not in the same hemisphere.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2013, 07:06:49 AM by EarthIsASpaceship »

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Cartesian

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #109 on: September 25, 2013, 07:04:04 AM »
That was intended for jroa who is still not convinced that hurricanes spin in the same direction depending on the hemisphere they are located.
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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #110 on: September 25, 2013, 07:08:30 AM »
That was intended for jroa who is still not convinced that hurricanes spin in the same direction depending on the hemisphere they are located.

Oh, I see.  Faked photos maybe?  Well, I guess it's possible.

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Cartesian

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #111 on: September 25, 2013, 07:10:40 AM »
Let's wait for what he'll come up with. Anyway, I also specifically mentioned that I needed the source of the pictures as well.
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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #112 on: September 25, 2013, 08:50:37 AM »
I haven't posted any photos.

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Son of Orospu

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #113 on: September 25, 2013, 04:42:27 PM »
Cartesian, I have yet to see any credible evidence that hurricanes spin at all, let alone the way you are describing. 

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Rama Set

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #114 on: September 25, 2013, 04:49:04 PM »
Cartesian, I have yet to see any credible evidence that hurricanes spin at all, let alone the way you are describing.

You doubt that hurricanes rotate?
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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #115 on: September 25, 2013, 05:13:19 PM »
Cartesian, I have yet to see any credible evidence that hurricanes spin at all, let alone the way you are describing.

You doubt that hurricanes rotate?

They might rotate, but I am not convinced that they rotate in the manner that RET says they do.

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rottingroom

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #116 on: September 25, 2013, 05:14:34 PM »
Cartesian, I have yet to see any credible evidence that hurricanes spin at all, let alone the way you are describing.

I know you don't believe in satellites and all but do you realize that meteorologists depend on the imagery provided by those so called satellites? Where ever they are from they are an extremely valuable tool. The imagery from hurricanes in north hemisphere compared to the south shows some obvious differences.

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Rama Set

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #117 on: September 25, 2013, 05:16:07 PM »
Have you seen anything to indicate hurricanes do not rotate in opposite directions depending on whether you are north or south of the equator?
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Rama Set

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #118 on: September 25, 2013, 05:16:46 PM »
Cartesian, I have yet to see any credible evidence that hurricanes spin at all, let alone the way you are describing.

I know you don't believe in satellites and all but do you realize that meteorologists depend on the imagery provided by those so called satellites? Where ever they are from they are an extremely valuable tool. The imagery from hurricanes in north hemisphere compared to the south shows some obvious differences.

Doppler radar can be ground based can't it?
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rottingroom

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Re: Hurricane tracks
« Reply #119 on: September 25, 2013, 05:30:48 PM »
Cartesian, I have yet to see any credible evidence that hurricanes spin at all, let alone the way you are describing.

I know you don't believe in satellites and all but do you realize that meteorologists depend on the imagery provided by those so called satellites? Where ever they are from they are an extremely valuable tool. The imagery from hurricanes in north hemisphere compared to the south shows some obvious differences.

Doppler radar can be ground based can't it?

Absolutely but thats a completely different kind of product compared to a VIS, IR, Microwave, or water vapor image that we get from satellites. The product is overlayed onto a map, showing reflected returns of the radial component of a targets velocity relative to a radar. on the other hand, satellite images (besides microwave satellites, which are like radars) are literally snapshots.