Will Anyone Else Miss FET?

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Lasker

Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« on: January 07, 2011, 11:15:04 PM »
I've been visiting these forums (lurking, as you might say) for about a year.  I love spending time here and I think this website is the most fascinating display of self-deception I've ever seen.   If it ever shut down, it would be like my favorite museum closed.  I hope the forum archives stay on the internet forever.

FET has outlasted telescopes, Newtonian physics, modern astronomy, the widespread adoption of satellite technologies and even spaceflight.  How can you not root for it now?  I find it deeply troubling that as the number of private citizens in space goes from 10 to 1,000 to 100,000 over the next forty years, the final chapter in the hundred-plus year history of the FES will be written. 

For those of you that are genuinely frustrated by the existence of the website and spend time and energy trying to "debunk" it -- I think you are missing the point.  Enjoy FET while it lasts.  You will miss it when it is gone. 

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Thork

Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2011, 09:03:08 AM »
What on earth are you blithering on about?

First of all, we have been on the verge of civilian space travel since 1969.
 
Howard Hughes beat Branson to the punch on this bit of marketing by 40 years.
Just because Branson is the latest lunatic to pretend his cheesey brand will succeed, doesn't mean he will be any more successful. If he was serious, would he have asked Bert Rutan to design his space ship? A guy who builds aircraft the exact opposite way round to everyone else? Propellors at the back, horizontal stabilizer at the front, Rudders on the wings? He might just as well have asked George Lucas for a design.
Rutan's Long-EZ 61 below.

^ For the record, I have flown one of these myself (yes IRL!)
Nice toy, but not a mode of transport for the masses.

Pinning your hopes on this duo ... I can't even finish. And people laugh at FET!

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Crustinator

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2011, 10:36:55 AM »
The moon is fake. I waited to see an eclipse but it didn't happen.

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markjo

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #3 on: January 08, 2011, 11:54:48 AM »
Howard Hughes beat Branson to the punch on this bit of marketing by 40 years.
Just because Branson is the latest lunatic to pretend his cheesey brand will succeed, doesn't mean he will be any more successful.

Did Howard Hughes (or anyone else) ever actually build a spaceship or spaceport?

If he was serious, would he have asked Bert Rutan to design his space ship? A guy who builds aircraft the exact opposite way round to everyone else? Propellors at the back, horizontal stabilizer at the front, Rudders on the wings?

Well, maybe Branson should have asked a guy who built a spaceship that has actually gone into space.  Oh, wait.  He did.
Science is what happens when preconception meets verification.
Quote from: Robosteve
Besides, perhaps FET is a conspiracy too.
Quote from: bullhorn
It is just the way it is, you understanding it doesn't concern me.

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #4 on: January 08, 2011, 04:47:26 PM »
Quote
Did Howard Hughes (or anyone else) ever actually build a spaceship or spaceport?

Did Richard Branson?

Quote
Well, maybe Branson should have asked a guy who built a spaceship that has actually gone into space.  Oh, wait.  He did.

Branson's plane doesn't go into space.


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Crustinator

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #5 on: January 08, 2011, 04:50:39 PM »
Please tell us where it goes Tom.

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #6 on: January 08, 2011, 04:57:46 PM »
Please tell us where it goes Tom.

Branson's plane goes into the upper atmosphere and then comes down again, much like those amateur balloons which can reach the edge of the atmosphere. At no point does Branson's plane go into space, which he admits himself.

I'm not claiming that Richard Branson's plane is a conspiracy, a hoax, or a fake. Neither am I claiming that those amateur balloons are fakes.

In FET at such high altitudes the observer is looking down at a circle.

http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/tiki/tiki-index.php?page=High+Altitude+Photographs
« Last Edit: January 08, 2011, 05:00:38 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Danukenator123

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #7 on: January 08, 2011, 05:30:39 PM »
Please tell us where it goes Tom.

Branson's plane goes into the upper atmosphere and then comes down again, much like those amateur balloons which can reach the edge of the atmosphere. At no point does Branson's plane go into space, which he admits himself.

I'm not claiming that Richard Branson's plane is a conspiracy, a hoax, or a fake. Neither am I claiming that those amateur balloons are fakes.

In FET at such high altitudes the observer is looking down at a circle.

http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/tiki/tiki-index.php?page=High+Altitude+Photographs


Please do explain that and back up what you say.

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2011, 06:08:40 PM »
Please tell us where it goes Tom.

Branson's plane goes into the upper atmosphere and then comes down again, much like those amateur balloons which can reach the edge of the atmosphere. At no point does Branson's plane go into space, which he admits himself.

I'm not claiming that Richard Branson's plane is a conspiracy, a hoax, or a fake. Neither am I claiming that those amateur balloons are fakes.

In FET at such high altitudes the observer is looking down at a circle.

http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/tiki/tiki-index.php?page=High+Altitude+Photographs


Please do explain that and back up what you say.


Read the link I provided.

I see no reason why I should write novels of material over and over again when I've already put the material on the Wiki.

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markjo

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2011, 06:35:51 PM »
Quote
Did Howard Hughes (or anyone else) ever actually build a spaceship or spaceport?

Did Richard Branson?

Yes, he did.
http://www.virgingalactic.com/news/item/spaceport-america-runway-dedication/

Quote
Well, maybe Branson should have asked a guy who built a spaceship that has actually gone into space.  Oh, wait.  He did.

Branson's plane doesn't go into space.

But Burt Rutan's spaceship did.
http://www.richard-seaman.com/Aircraft/AirShows/SpaceShipOne2004/
Science is what happens when preconception meets verification.
Quote from: Robosteve
Besides, perhaps FET is a conspiracy too.
Quote from: bullhorn
It is just the way it is, you understanding it doesn't concern me.

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2011, 06:40:20 PM »
Quote
Did Howard Hughes (or anyone else) ever actually build a spaceship or spaceport?

Did Richard Branson?

Yes, he did.
http://www.virgingalactic.com/news/item/spaceport-america-runway-dedication/

Not really a "Spaceport" if its launching airplanes, is it?

Quote
Quote
Well, maybe Branson should have asked a guy who built a spaceship that has actually gone into space.  Oh, wait.  He did.

Branson's plane doesn't go into space.

But Burt Rutan's spaceship did.
http://www.richard-seaman.com/Aircraft/AirShows/SpaceShipOne2004/

No. Neither SpaceShipOne or SpaceShipTwo went into space. They are not spaceships. They are airplanes. They stay within the atmosphere of the earth at all times.
« Last Edit: January 08, 2011, 06:42:06 PM by Tom Bishop »

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markjo

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2011, 06:54:23 PM »
Not really a "Spaceport" if its launching airplanes, is it?

What if it launches space craft as well?
Quote from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaceport_America#Operation
Spaceport America has already hosted several vertical launches of its first tenant, UP Aerospace. Though incomplete, it has multiple vertical takeoff facilities completed.
Click the link in the citation for the actual list of launches.

No. Neither SpaceShipOne or SpaceShipTwo went into space. They are not spaceships. They are airplanes. They stay within the atmosphere of the earth at all times.

Spaceship One achieved an altitude above the K?rm?n line (approximately 100km) which is considered to be the boundary of outer space as recognized by the FIA (F?d?ration A?ronautique Internationale).
Science is what happens when preconception meets verification.
Quote from: Robosteve
Besides, perhaps FET is a conspiracy too.
Quote from: bullhorn
It is just the way it is, you understanding it doesn't concern me.

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Danukenator123

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2011, 07:46:46 PM »
Please tell us where it goes Tom.

Branson's plane goes into the upper atmosphere and then comes down again, much like those amateur balloons which can reach the edge of the atmosphere. At no point does Branson's plane go into space, which he admits himself.

I'm not claiming that Richard Branson's plane is a conspiracy, a hoax, or a fake. Neither am I claiming that those amateur balloons are fakes.

In FET at such high altitudes the observer is looking down at a circle.

http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/tiki/tiki-index.php?page=High+Altitude+Photographs


Please do explain that and back up what you say.


Read the link I provided.

I see no reason why I should write novels of material over and over again when I've already put the material on the Wiki.

The unsupported wiki article doesn't suffice as evidence.

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Crustinator

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2011, 08:55:09 AM »
At no point does Branson's plane go into space, which he admits himself.

Please provide evidence for this outlandish claim.

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2011, 01:51:53 PM »
Quote
Spaceship One achieved an altitude above the K?rm?n line (approximately 100km) which is considered to be the boundary of outer space as recognized by the FIA (F?d?ration A?ronautique Internationale).

There are numerous altitudes which various organizations hold for the "boundary of space". Some people say its 80km, others say it's 122km, and still others say it's 200km.

But the fact remains that Spaceship One stays aloft through lift via the atmosphere, exactly like a plane. At 100km, if Spaceship One is being lifted by the atmosphere then it's still in the atmosphere. I don't care how close it is to the "edge of space," or whether it's above 98% of the atmosphere. It's still not a spaceship.

Say that I took a jeep onto the beach and drove along the water line, maybe splashing the water a little with my tires. Is my jeep now a sea-faring vessel? I did drive it extremely close to the water and splashed some water a little with my tires after all. Using the same Virgin Galactic logic one could reason that my jeep is "close enough" to being a sea-faring vessel and therefore, is.

No. My jeep is not a boat and Spaceship One is not a spaceship. I never took my jeep out into the ocean and Virgin Galactic never took its airplanes out into space.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2011, 08:57:04 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #15 on: January 09, 2011, 02:50:11 PM »
The unsupported wiki article doesn't suffice as evidence.

I didn't present it as evidence, I presented it as an explanation.

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markjo

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #16 on: January 09, 2011, 04:35:08 PM »
But the fact remains that Spaceship One stays aloft through lift via the atmosphere, exactly like a plane. At 100km, if Spaceship One is being lifted by the atmosphere then it's still in the atmosphere. I don't care how close it is to the "edge of space," or whether it's above 98% of the atmosphere. It's still not a spaceship.

At an altitude of 100km, Spaceship One was not held aloft through lift via the atmosphere.
Quote from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line
The line was named after Theodore von K?rm?n, (1881?1963) a Hungarian-American engineer and physicist who was active primarily in the fields of aeronautics and astronautics. He first calculated that around this altitude the Earth's atmosphere becomes too thin for aeronautical purposes (because any vehicle at this altitude would have to travel faster than orbital velocity in order to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift from the atmosphere to support itself).

In fact, Spaceship One's trajectory was more or less straight up and down.  Not very conducive for generating lift, even in the denser atmosphere.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2011, 04:38:26 PM by markjo »
Science is what happens when preconception meets verification.
Quote from: Robosteve
Besides, perhaps FET is a conspiracy too.
Quote from: bullhorn
It is just the way it is, you understanding it doesn't concern me.

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Thork

Burt Rutan ... Genius or madman?
« Reply #17 on: January 09, 2011, 05:39:32 PM »
So how serious is Branson? Let's look at Rutan's pedigree.

In 1974 after working in the military on various design projects he founds his own company. He does very little until 1977. At this point he watches star wars and he stops making regular composite aircraft.


Rutan:"You can put the wings at the back??? mmmm idea brewing ..."

In 1979 the prototype design for the varieze and long-ez aircraft were flown and designs sold in the mid 80's to civilian home builders.
Now, no one is saying Burt is stupid. Burt's brother Dick Rutan flew the long ez and smashed many world speed and endurance records. As I mentioned before I have had he privilege of flying a long ez. It was unlike any other aircraft I have ever flown. All his aircraft are of similar layout as you will see. Let me out line the pros and cons.
Pro's. Rutan's canard planes are fast - ridiculously fast. Very low drag. Best glide ratio of any aircraft I have ever flown by a country mile. Very fuel efficient. Corner like a house fly. So good are the aerodynamics that XCOR Aerospace modified a Long-EZ and replaced the engine with twin liquid fueled rocket engines to form a flight test vehicle called the EZ-rocket, which was used as a proof-of-concept demonstrator.
Con's. They cannot be negatively G-loaded. They fall to bits. Very high stall speeds. This is to make sure the canard stalls before the main wing. Stall the main wing on one of these and you are dead. There is no recovery. You have no control. Consequently high landing speeds.

 
Above is a varieze.                                                          Above is another aircraft he designed called the Quickie.

His finest homebuilt the Berkut 360. I met the guy who owns that 360. Anyway ...

Now these aircraft have a place in history. However these aircraft also killed a lot of people. You need to be a damn good pilot to fly one.  Not for novices. Ever heard of John Denver? Long Ez finished him off. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Denver
http://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=74430   Another one.
http://www.thekathrynreport.com/2009/12/n499cm-rutan-long-ez-built-by-michael-j.html   Another
http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief.asp?ev_id=20001206X02295&key=1    One of his other planes the cozy
http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief.asp?ev_id=20001207X02891&key=1   Another cozy death
http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief.asp?ev_id=20020213X00211&key=1   And another

Only 700 long ez were ever built. 71 have had accidents. 28 were fatalities.

But Rutan didn't leave it there. Still dreaming of starwars he convinced Beechcraft that he could design them an awesome business jet.

Rutan: "Mmmmm what shall i call it? How about ... The Beechcraft Starship? Yeah like that."

Development cost $300 million. Unit cost $3.9 million. Units sold? 13. Ouch. Beechcraft got hurt. Still Burt shrugged his shoulders and looked forward to his next project. There must be other rich people out there who would pay him silly money to design a back-to-front aircraft.

And Burt found a rich guy. This rich guy was going to fund an aircraft that would be the first to fly round the world without stopping for fuel in one go.

The Rutan Voyager. Can you guess which rich guy from the picture above?
Indeed the aircraft accomplished its mission so again Burt moved on.

Since he first sat on his couch and watched a film about a galaxy far, far away, he knew what he wanted to do. He has always been attempting technical exercises on this long road.
Burt Rutan has no interest in money. None. He built the kits planes to break world records. He built the starcruiser to prove his designs could work on commercial vehicles. He built the voyager to break endurance records. And now he is building this.


Just kidding. This weird thing is one of his though from 1990.

He built this to prove it could be done.

It could, Halo flight achieved. High Altitude Long Operperation (Extension of Voyager with piggy backing vehicle)

Now he is building this.


The thing is, Rutan doesn't give a monkey's whether this succeeds financially or not. He isn't picking up the tab. He is only interested in can it be done. Not 'will anyone use it?'.

This will flop, Branson will get burned, I will laugh, and you guys still won't get your space flight. You read it here first.

Of course Branson probably suspects what I suspect. But exactly like Howard Hughes 40 years before, it gets headlines. Captures the imagination, makes you think Virgin is the best company to fly with.

In summation, BRanson is not going to be offering trips to hundreds of thousands of people as the OP suggested. The numbers of those who have been high enough to see earth's shape will be small enough for the conspiracy to control.


« Last Edit: January 09, 2011, 05:43:22 PM by Thork »

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markjo

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Re: Burt Rutan ... Genius or madman?
« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2011, 05:44:05 PM »
So how serious is Branson? Let's look at Rutan's pedigree.

In 1974 after working in the military on various design projects he founds his own company. He does very little until 1977. At this point he watches star wars and he stops making regular composite aircraft.


Rutan:"You can put the wings at the back??? mmmm idea brewing ..."

Yes, because nobody had ever though of putting the wings on the back of the plane before.  ::)
Science is what happens when preconception meets verification.
Quote from: Robosteve
Besides, perhaps FET is a conspiracy too.
Quote from: bullhorn
It is just the way it is, you understanding it doesn't concern me.

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #19 on: January 09, 2011, 05:52:11 PM »
Quote
At an altitude of 100km, Spaceship One was not held aloft through lift via the atmosphere.

Actually, it was. Spaceship One did not achieve Earth Orbit.

Quote
In fact, Spaceship One's trajectory was more or less straight up and down.  Not very conducive for generating lift, even in the denser atmosphere.

Spaceship One is an airplane with wings. It generated lift through the atmosphere. It is not possible to generate lift in a vacuum. Therefore Spaceship did not go into space, even if it came extremely close to it.

See: Jeep-Boat analogy
« Last Edit: January 09, 2011, 05:53:48 PM by Tom Bishop »

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General Disarray

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #20 on: January 09, 2011, 06:04:04 PM »
Quote
At an altitude of 100km, Spaceship One was not held aloft through lift via the atmosphere.

Actually, it was. Spaceship One did not achieve Earth Orbit.

Quote
In fact, Spaceship One's trajectory was more or less straight up and down.  Not very conducive for generating lift, even in the denser atmosphere.

Spaceship One is an airplane with wings. It generated lift through the atmosphere. It is not possible to generate lift in a vacuum. Therefore Spaceship did not go into space, even if it came extremely close to it.

See: Jeep-Boat analogy

Because no vehicle could possibly have two methods of propulsion, right?
You don't want to make an enemy of me. I'm very powerful.

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Thork

Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #21 on: January 09, 2011, 06:08:43 PM »
I'll dumb this down for you as you didn't get the subtly of my last post, nor what Tom is trying to tell you.

Do Branson's 'Spaceships' have long wings?
If the answer is yes, they are for high altitude flight. Not space flight.

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General Disarray

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2011, 06:09:30 PM »
Because no vehicle could possibly have two methods of propulsion, right?
You don't want to make an enemy of me. I'm very powerful.

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Thork

Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2011, 06:14:01 PM »
100km. Not space flight. Only the lower Thermosphere.

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markjo

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2011, 06:23:11 PM »
I'll dumb this down for you as you didn't get the subtly of my last post, nor what Tom is trying to tell you.

Do Branson's 'Spaceships' have long wings?
If the answer is yes, they are for high altitude flight. Not space flight.

*sigh*  Spaceship One started in the atmosphere where it's wings gave it aerodynamic control.  It then used it's rocket engine to propel it to an altitude in excess of 100 km where the atmosphere was too thin for the wings to provide any aerodynamic control.  Gravity then caused Spaceship One to return to the denser layers of the atmosphere where the wings were once again able to provide aerodynamic control and allow for a safe landing.
Science is what happens when preconception meets verification.
Quote from: Robosteve
Besides, perhaps FET is a conspiracy too.
Quote from: bullhorn
It is just the way it is, you understanding it doesn't concern me.

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bl4ke360

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #25 on: January 09, 2011, 06:39:58 PM »
I'll dumb this down for you as you didn't get the subtly of my last post, nor what Tom is trying to tell you.

Do Branson's 'Spaceships' have long wings?
If the answer is yes, they are for high altitude flight. Not space flight.


I'm not sure about you but I see wings on this vehicle intended for space flight.



wings in action:



As markjo said, the wings aren't being used in space, the engines are.

And oh look, here is spaceshipone's engine:
« Last Edit: January 09, 2011, 07:00:42 PM by bl4ke360 »
Quote from: Tom Bishop
Oh, for God's sake... ::)
Look out your window.
Quote from: Bl4ke360
http://i33.tinypic.com/350t5s8.jpg

Is this supposed to prove something here?
Quote from: Tom Bishop
Looks pretty flat to me.

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fenterb

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #26 on: January 10, 2011, 12:35:13 AM »
Do not be surprised by the ability of conspiracy theorists to deny the truth even in the face of irrefutable evidence

FE debate has been thinning out over time as far as I can tell, there seems to be little real conversation going on these days beyond trolling and noob education.  Everything has done to death, FE for the most part is unable to explain vast amounts of phenomena without baseless speculation, and everyone is tired of threads drying up. 

However there will always be FErs in the same way there will always be creationists who stick their fingers in their ears and deny evolution.  Even if nobody wants to talk to them at parties. 

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Crustinator

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #27 on: January 13, 2011, 11:48:00 AM »
Spaceship One is an airplane with wings. It generated lift through the atmosphere. It is not possible to generate lift in a vacuum. Therefore Spaceship did not go into space, even if it came extremely close to it.

Say that I took a boat put wheels on it and drove it onto the beach. I drove along the water line, maybe splashing the water a little with my tires. Then I went into the sea and floated about a bit. I use the wheels to get to the beach, and the buoyancy to float on the water.

But the fact is jeeps are cars. Cars cannot go into the sea. Read ENaG.

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Pongo

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Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #28 on: January 13, 2011, 02:35:13 PM »


My mom went through mesopause.  Does that mean she went into space?

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Thork

Re: Will Anyone Else Miss FET?
« Reply #29 on: January 13, 2011, 03:56:45 PM »
It just means she has flat tits. Do not make me prove to you, that they are not round. :(