Thought experiment.

Torve do you work or sleep?


Today is my day off but I'm going to go and buy a welder because I have some steel framing to weld together and welders are cheap enough now to justify me buying one.

I'm going to go and buy a welder because I have some steel framing to weld together and welders are cheap enough now to justify me buying one.

hella fresh and welcome to the club (although i think you had previous experience iirc, i had to go take a short class)

A man can never have too many tools or skills. I can weld things together well enough but my welds are ugly. I'm looking forward to practicising and getting better at it.

Fair play.  That’s not bad, and not something I thought of at all. 

It’s still a bit of a simplified problem though.  It assumes that the prisoners will play by the rules of the game.  ie they either behave or make a break for it.

But people will try to circumvent the rules.  They could take off their clothes or otherwise hide their number.  They could rush you as a group (lowest numbers at the front) instead of trying to run.  You could start adding more rules to mitigate for such attempts, but after a few hours or days of quietly whispering between themselves they would find new ways to defy you and get around whatever little rules you give them. 

Assuming they want out and are prepared to take some risk, they will rebel and try to break the system.

It works as a logic problem where you are the smart person trying to find an inventive way to deal with dumb people with very predictable behavior.  The problem is if they are just as cunning and inventive as you.

If it were an actual real life situation, it’s hard to escape the basic conditions set out at the beginning.  You are vastly outnumbered with one gun and one bullet trying to stop a bunch of people who want to escape.

Fair play.  That’s not bad, and not something I thought of at all.

Thanks, I did say that I had a good answer.

It’s still a bit of a simplified problem though.

That's why its just a thought experiment.

A thought experiment is an imaginary scenario that is meant to elucidate or test an argument or theory. It is often an experiment that would be hard, impossible, or unethical to actually perform. It can also be an abstract hypothetical that is meant to test our intuitions about morality or other fundamental philosophical questions.
Wikipedia

In the answer, 100 people don't have a 1% chance of being shot. 1 person has a 100% chance of being shot. Did you even read my answer?

One person may have a 100% chance of being shot at, but not necessarily a 100% chance of being killed or even hit.  Assuming that the one shot is not wasted as a warning shot, of course.

Its a thought experiment, my silicon friend.

A thought experiment is an imaginary scenario that is meant to elucidate or test an argument or theory. It is often an experiment that would be hard, impossible, or unethical to actually perform. It can also be an abstract hypothetical that is meant to test our intuitions about morality or other fundamental philosophical questions.
Wikipedia

A man can never have too many tools or skills. I can weld things together well enough but my welds are ugly. I'm looking forward to practicising and getting better at it.

i agree and i am sure you will achieve the perfect weld bead (i have not and do not even practice anymore because no projects and too much life responsibility)

Torve do you work or sleep?

No.

And I never drink.

Wine.

I used to know someone pretty similar who posted here.

I used to know someone pretty similar who posted here.

So did I.

A tasty fellow.

Masalang
Is pretty tasty. Especially when it's spicy.

I'm sorry but that's your solution?
It's a terrible solution!

Now, I've read the thread and I do not recall the guards being invulnerable or otherwise unable to be harmed.  So where did you explain that rushing the guards isn't an option?

Also, how do the guards hear, see, or otherwise know when a plan is made and who or who isn't in the group?

You also seem to assume that a group of people won't intentionally sacrifice someone to die by force or lie.

Or simply have say... Number 1 blocked by others so you can't shoot him as everyone runs.

Your "thought experiment" seems to make the assumption that everyone is scared and helpless.

Also, by your own post: this isn't a thought experiment as you, the person who made it, have created a solution.  There is no testing.  No argument.  No theory. It's a riddle at best.  Any experiment, when done, must not have the experiment or determine the solution prior to engaging it.

I'm sorry but that's your solution?
It's a terrible solution!

Thanks for sharing your opinion.

The only thing we can do at this point is get together and try this out for real.

I agree with Dave.

as you rightly said D1 in your critique of my dark scenario there are people willing to do stuff or allow others to do stuff that are morally bankrupt. Co-opting someone with a higher number than you by coercion, promising to cover them up, and then not doing so, cheating in society especially in potentially dangerous situations is a strategy that often works.
But, a fun exercise if fruitless.

Quote from: disputeone on September 18, 2025, 05:49:16 PM

A man can never have too many tools or skills. I can weld things together well enough but my welds are ugly. I'm looking forward to practicising and getting better at it.

i agree and i am sure you will achieve the perfect weld bead (i have not and do not even practice anymore because no projects and too much life responsibility)

My brother is an excellent welder. Someday I should take a picture of a trailer he built and show it to you. He is a welder and a mechanic for a living.

Listen dude, this thought experiment fails on the principles of game theory.

You threaten to shoot a member of the crowd if they try to leave, as previously outlined.

They crowd knows you won't shoot, bc if you do the rest will kill you.

You don't shoot when they pick up and leave bc you also know they will kill you if you do.

So it's a fail.

Sorry.

This was the original and purported to be an interview question for Blackrock.  Whether that is true or not, I've no idea..



So, it's bit tighter, in that it tells us the parameters of the prisoners - ie if there's any chance of escaping they will.  It's not really a good puzzle let alone thought experiment and apparently it's not meant to be.  Blackrock were apparently less bothered about the answer itself and more with how you approached and framed it.

That could work.

Confirmed:
Disputeone works for Black Rock.

Confirmed:
Disputeone works for Black Rock.

No, he works for Putin.

This was the original and purported to be an interview question for Blackrock.  Whether that is true or not, I've no idea..



So, it's bit tighter, in that it tells us the parameters of the prisoners - ie if there's any chance of escaping they will.  It's not really a good puzzle let alone thought experiment and apparently it's not meant to be.  Blackrock were apparently less bothered about the answer itself and more with how you approached and framed it.

Blackrock thinks a good answer is worth 400k a year. Its a pretty dark question to be asking investment bankers.

Blackrock thinks a good answer is worth 400k a year. Its a pretty dark question to be asking investment bankers.

You think that investment banking isn't dark?
https://www.mbacrystalball.com/blog/2018/07/30/investment-banking-dark-side/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2024/05/30/the-dark-side-of-investment-banking-stress-pressure-and-100-hour-workweeks/
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082415/7-reasons-investment-banking-not-you.asp

No, I get it.

This was a revolutionary conversation

There's a way forward.

That said, after a couple of days, no human being is going to believe any food is forthcoming and they will rush you.

or run away, even at the risk of death (fast vs slow)

I've read the supposed solution, it's dumb.

First you set up a boundary, then you apply the following rules:

First person who crosses the boundary, will be killed.  All others will be granted their freedom.

If someone tries to take one for the team (purposely be the one killed), one of remaining will be killed at random and the rest will be granted their freedom.

If you force someone to cross the boundary or be the last man, you will be killed, and everyone else will be granted their freedom.

If a group tries to force someone across the boundary, or be the last man, one person at random from that group will be killed, and everyone else will be granted their freedom.

If a group attempts to cross the boundary simultaneously, one person at random from that group will be killed, and everyone else will be granted their freedom.

If you try to cross the boundary en mass, the last person to cross the barrier is killed and the rest will be granted their freedom.

As long as you stay within the boundary, you are free to live how you want.  Materials, tools, and supplies will be provided upon request. (Scenario says items are available)


----------------

Essentially you want to do two things, provide an incentive for staying in the boundary beyond just not dying and MORE IMPORANTLY within the rules create a rule paradox that makes it impossible to logic their way out of their chance of being killed.

As long as you stay within the boundary, you are free to live how you want.  Materials, tools, and supplies will be provided upon request. (Scenario says items are available)

Would there be enough resources to fabricate one set of IronMan mk1 armor?

Quote from: NotSoSkeptical on October 08, 2025, 10:03:49 PM

As long as you stay within the boundary, you are free to live how you want.  Materials, tools, and supplies will be provided upon request. (Scenario says items are available)

Would there be enough resources to fabricate one set of IronMan mk1 armor?

As a though experiment, sure why not.  If he escaped, it would be considered self sacrifice and one of the others would be killed at random.

Quote from: markjo on October 09, 2025, 05:18:04 AM

Quote from: NotSoSkeptical on October 08, 2025, 10:03:49 PM

As long as you stay within the boundary, you are free to live how you want.  Materials, tools, and supplies will be provided upon request. (Scenario says items are available)

Would there be enough resources to fabricate one set of IronMan mk1 armor?

As a though experiment, sure why not.  If he escaped, it would be considered self sacrifice and one of the others would be killed at random.

Ok, how about 100 sets of armor?