War

No, he is right, you are a dickhead.

Quote from: Space Cowgirl on March 02, 2026, 06:12:46 AM

Quote from: Pezevenk on March 01, 2026, 10:42:27 PM

Quote from: Space Cowgirl on March 01, 2026, 01:18:48 PM

ANYWAY, I still don't know what to think about this Iran shit. I absolutely do not think we should be involved in any more wars, but at the same time the Iranian diaspora is so happy.

Monarchists in the US (a lot of whom have never even been in Iran) should not decide who lives and dies in their ex country, or in the world more generally.

Should the protesters in Iran have been murdered, then? I don't understand. Most of the interviews I've seen with Iranians were born in Iran and fled at some point over the past 30-40 years.

Before you get mad at me, I'm not trying to justify US involvement in these attacks. I would just like to understand why so many people are supportive of the religious dictatorship and not the people. I know that the sanctions against Iran created a boiling point, but Iranians have been resentful of being forced to live by Islamist extremist laws for a very long time.

No, why does it have to be that you either have to believe that either 1) Iranian protesters should get murdered by the dozens or 2) Iranians should get murdered by the dozens in bomb campaigns?

One aspect that all of these Iranians you see who fled have in common is that they fled. Why did they flee? Because they hated the government, and possibly they were persecuted. Now, a lot of them have some very weird and wrong ideas about what is going to happen in Iran, but I can't stress enough how biased this sample is. I am not saying the people in Iran like the government, about two thirds if not more don't, then there's people who don't care much either way and there's 20-25% who are loyal to it, are very religious and will fight tooth and nail for it. But even though most people don't like the government, only a small percentage of those actually in Iran is happy with getting bombed over it, the diaspora is not at all representative, and even in the diaspora opinions aren't so monolithic (you will find very, very few government supporters in the diaspora but many who resent the war).

Another thing that people completely ignore and that everyone should remember when talking about Iranian diaspora is that there was absolutely crushing, overwhelming support FOR the Iranian revolution to overthrow the Shah (Reza Pahlavi's dad) and FOR Islamic governance. In fact there were far more people (comparatively) who wanted the Shah to fall than there are who want the Islamic Republic to fall. They had a referendum about it and the revolution side won with 98%, and even before then polls showed it wasn't even close. So a lot of the diaspora who left right when the revolution happened belong to that tiny percentage that were always pro-monarchy (of course it also includes other people who supported it initially but then soured on it as Khomeini consolidated power, which is probably what will happen too with a lot of the people who initially came out pro-war, who will probably change their opinions on it pretty soon). A lot of the diaspora will also talk serious shit about Islam and Muslims, which is funny because the vast majority of Iran is Muslim (although young people are not very religious). Again, it's not even close to representative.

To put it in different terms: Imagine it's the year 2033. Trump is 86 years old (like Khamenei was), and he has declared himself Supreme Leader of the USA after refusing to step down after his term was over. China is now in war with the USA to depose him, and they launch a large scale ICBM attack on Florida. They manage to blow him up, and in the process missiles that were meant for Mar a Lago flatten your entire neighborhood. Meanwhile, diaspora who fled the USA after he made himself Supreme Leader are celebrating. It's... kinda like that.

I didn't really mean to imply that you had to be for one kind of killing or the other, but I realize that it does kind of read that way. I was more thinking about how the protesters had been crushed by the IRGC, which indicates to me that there are many people living in Iran unhappy with their situation. When I see people outside of Iran opposing what the US and Israel are doing, they usually don't mention the massacred protesters. This is one of the reasons I don't know how to feel about all this. I don't want the US bombing other countries, or assassinating their leaders, or starting forever wars. I do feel that there could be situations where the US should be involved, I just don't trust the govt to make the right choices for good reasons. It's difficult to say it perfectly.

I read that there could have been 20,000 - 30,000 protesters killed in January. Has this number been downgraded to a few dozen? I know it is impossible to verify the death toll because the internet has been cut off, but there were reports and video from people in Iran of hospitals and mortuaries not having room for bodies, and of mass graves.

I don't think anybody is happy being bombed for any reason. It's not really the bombing they'd be happy about, but the possibilities of what could happen next. I think Iranians living in Iran are probably dreaming of a life without the morality police.

A lot of people support something without knowing how it will turn out. Weren't there a lot of supporters of the Iranian revolution executed or exiled? Like thousands of supporters were executed? Thousands of activists and academics (who supported the revolution) also fled the country, to avoid execution or imprisonment.

Quote from: Pezevenk on March 02, 2026, 07:02:09 AM

Quote from: Space Cowgirl on March 02, 2026, 06:12:46 AM

Quote from: Pezevenk on March 01, 2026, 10:42:27 PM

Quote from: Space Cowgirl on March 01, 2026, 01:18:48 PM

ANYWAY, I still don't know what to think about this Iran shit. I absolutely do not think we should be involved in any more wars, but at the same time the Iranian diaspora is so happy.

Monarchists in the US (a lot of whom have never even been in Iran) should not decide who lives and dies in their ex country, or in the world more generally.

Should the protesters in Iran have been murdered, then? I don't understand. Most of the interviews I've seen with Iranians were born in Iran and fled at some point over the past 30-40 years.

Before you get mad at me, I'm not trying to justify US involvement in these attacks. I would just like to understand why so many people are supportive of the religious dictatorship and not the people. I know that the sanctions against Iran created a boiling point, but Iranians have been resentful of being forced to live by Islamist extremist laws for a very long time.

No, why does it have to be that you either have to believe that either 1) Iranian protesters should get murdered by the dozens or 2) Iranians should get murdered by the dozens in bomb campaigns?

One aspect that all of these Iranians you see who fled have in common is that they fled. Why did they flee? Because they hated the government, and possibly they were persecuted. Now, a lot of them have some very weird and wrong ideas about what is going to happen in Iran, but I can't stress enough how biased this sample is. I am not saying the people in Iran like the government, about two thirds if not more don't, then there's people who don't care much either way and there's 20-25% who are loyal to it, are very religious and will fight tooth and nail for it. But even though most people don't like the government, only a small percentage of those actually in Iran is happy with getting bombed over it, the diaspora is not at all representative, and even in the diaspora opinions aren't so monolithic (you will find very, very few government supporters in the diaspora but many who resent the war).

Another thing that people completely ignore and that everyone should remember when talking about Iranian diaspora is that there was absolutely crushing, overwhelming support FOR the Iranian revolution to overthrow the Shah (Reza Pahlavi's dad) and FOR Islamic governance. In fact there were far more people (comparatively) who wanted the Shah to fall than there are who want the Islamic Republic to fall. They had a referendum about it and the revolution side won with 98%, and even before then polls showed it wasn't even close. So a lot of the diaspora who left right when the revolution happened belong to that tiny percentage that were always pro-monarchy (of course it also includes other people who supported it initially but then soured on it as Khomeini consolidated power, which is probably what will happen too with a lot of the people who initially came out pro-war, who will probably change their opinions on it pretty soon). A lot of the diaspora will also talk serious shit about Islam and Muslims, which is funny because the vast majority of Iran is Muslim (although young people are not very religious). Again, it's not even close to representative.

To put it in different terms: Imagine it's the year 2033. Trump is 86 years old (like Khamenei was), and he has declared himself Supreme Leader of the USA after refusing to step down after his term was over. China is now in war with the USA to depose him, and they launch a large scale ICBM attack on Florida. They manage to blow him up, and in the process missiles that were meant for Mar a Lago flatten your entire neighborhood. Meanwhile, diaspora who fled the USA after he made himself Supreme Leader are celebrating. It's... kinda like that.

I didn't really mean to imply that you had to be for one kind of killing or the other, but I realize that it does kind of read that way. I was more thinking about how the protesters had been crushed by the IRGC, which indicates to me that there are many people living in Iran unhappy with their situation. When I see people outside of Iran opposing what the US and Israel are doing, they usually don't mention the massacred protesters. This is one of the reasons I don't know how to feel about all this. I don't want the US bombing other countries, or assassinating their leaders, or starting forever wars. I do feel that there could be situations where the US should be involved, I just don't trust the govt to make the right choices for good reasons. It's difficult to say it perfectly.

I read that there could have been 20,000 - 30,000 protesters killed in January. Has this number been downgraded to a few dozen? I know it is impossible to verify the death toll because the internet has been cut off, but there were reports and video from people in Iran of hospitals and mortuaries not having room for bodies, and of mass graves.

I don't think anybody is happy being bombed for any reason. It's not really the bombing they'd be happy about, but the possibilities of what could happen next. I think Iranians living in Iran are probably dreaming of a life without the morality police.

A lot of people support something without knowing how it will turn out. Weren't there a lot of supporters of the Iranian revolution executed or exiled? Like thousands of supporters were executed? Thousands of activists and academics (who supported the revolution) also fled the country, to avoid execution or imprisonment.

About the protests, I've heard anything from 7k to 150k. Nobody knows for sure, some people are making very far fetched claims. I don't know, but it's certainly thousands.

Yes, many supporters were killed or exiled. Almost all the people inside Iran who hate the government now and who were alive back then also supported the revolution back then. Again, almost everybody did. But this doesn't change the fact that a lot (not nearly all) of the most die hard monarchist diaspora that you hear about come from the few people who always supported Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, and don't have a lot of ties to the country any more. That's why I'm saying it's a very biased sample, and it's easier for them to call for war. There are Iranians in Iran who celebrate the strikes (for now, if this is going where I fear it's going then they're gonna change their minds, same way they changed minds about the revolution), but it really isn't that many. It is one thing to be sick of your government and want to change it, and it's a whole other thing for a foreign power (which, btw, hates your guts and won't think twice of splitting your country apart and leaving it ravaged, because Iran being strong is a threat for them) to come in and bomb you.

It's not impossible that the government falls eventually due to this war. But this will take a really, really long time, and there's going to be massive clashes, and as a power vacuum forms there's going to be separatist groups that will join in the fighting, and zealous loyalists who will never let it go. There will be chaos for a really long time, and it's possible that millions will die in the process, and in the end, they will still have a messed up police state, because that's what Israel and the US will want to make sure that the huge percentage of the population who will now hate them for destroying their country won't act up again. Bibi and Trump know this, this is the plan. Many dictatorships have collapsed without external intervention. Hell, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi's dictatorship in Iran collapsed without external intervention, because nobody wanted him any more. There were very bloody protests but the country wasn't blown to bits by bombs, and overall it was a far smoother passage than what they're imagining for Iran now. By the way, even the morality police was getting dialed back recently, without outside war, because of the protests, and because Iranians voted reformist parties (yes, Iranians can vote, it doesn't always do that much, but people forget that sometimes).

If you want to also hear some anti-war diaspora Iranians you can check out Samira Mohyeddin or Shargh Zadeh. I don't always agree with them but you can see the other side of what is far more promoted. You can watch Shargh debate a monarchist a few months ago when the first bombing campaign happened here (unfortunately it's moderated by professional idiot and shame of global Greeks Drew Pavlou lol):

https://www.youtube.com/live/zqdEwyoY6Uw?si=aDvhBFpNO6cyGchG

To be fair I don't think that monarchist is that representative, he comes of as very stupid and weird. Also note that Shargh Zadeh ALSO comes from a family of people who were always pro-Pahlavi, and he is anti-IR (same as Samira).

I think that one of the things that Trump and his cronies haven’t thought through is who are the IRGC supposed to surrender to?  It’s not as if there’s an organized resistance with potential new leaders and security forces waiting in the wings.

I wondered about that too. Of course the Shah is waiting, but I think Iranians would probably prefer to have a choice. There will be too much chaos for anything normal.

Another thing to consider is that there’s 40 odd years of government infrastructure and bureaucracy involved, almost certainly very loyal to the current regime.  I doubt that they’re looking to change any time soon. I think that there’s a lot more to “regime change” than Trump (or most people here) think.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-sinks-iranian-corvette-gulf-170414979.html

The US struck an Iranian Jamaran-class corvette in the Gulf of Oman, sinking the vessel, US Central Command confirmed on Sunday.

The vessel was struck by the US military as part of Operation Epic Fury, and is sinking at Chah Bahar pier, southeast Iran, CENTCOM added.

The statement did not specify whether the vessel was part of the Iranian military navy or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' naval force.

Today I learned that the IRGC has its own naval force separate from the Iranian military.

If Wikipedia is to be believed, the IRGC navy could be bigger than the regular navy.

From what I can see operation Epstein fury, is not about the people of Iran, it's just a distraction, not just about the women and their abusers, but the state of a nation where the rich are getting every break available but the rest are struggling with 90% of the tariff damage.

All the things touted about the evils of the Iranian regime are true, but the same things are true about Putin and look how he is treated, if you are scared of Iranian missiles you will acquiesce to killing a foreign dictator, 14 schoolgirls and American troops.
Apparently this was all done last June, some of the military disagreed so he sacked them, he's down in the polls, his Gestapo is killing US citizens but there is money to be made in war even if it means breaking his promise of “No new wars.”

I think that one of the things that Trump and his cronies haven’t thought through is who are the IRGC supposed to surrender to?  It’s not as if there’s an organized resistance with potential new leaders and security forces waiting in the wings.

The IRGC can't surrender. They are all going to be strung up no matter what. The big idea is that the army flips and crushes the IRGC. Or so it might seem.

Reports indicate the new Ayatolla lasted 5 hours.

Quote from: markjo on March 02, 2026, 11:43:28 AM

I think that one of the things that Trump and his cronies haven’t thought through is who are the IRGC supposed to surrender to?  It’s not as if there’s an organized resistance with potential new leaders and security forces waiting in the wings.

The IRGC can't surrender. They are all going to be strung up no matter what. The big idea is that the army flips and crushes the IRGC. Or so it might seem.

If their respective navies are anything to go by, the IRGC might just win that fight.

If their respective navies are anything to go by, the IRGC might just win that fight.

It's not. The army is at least 3x larger.

The current regime only has two choices - carry on repressing the population (well the ones that don't support it) or get hung from the lampposts.

That's not true, western politicians could start a war to try and avoid being being hung from lampposts, while still repressing their population.

All the things touted about the evils of the Iranian regime are true, but the same things are true about Putin and look how he is treated.

Do you want the US to start a full scale war against Russia?

Quote from: markjo on March 02, 2026, 01:03:40 PM

If their respective navies are anything to go by, the IRGC might just win that fight.

It's not. The army is at least 3x larger.

Seems like the IRGC is better equipped, better trained and more highly motivated than the regular army.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/irans-massive-army-still-nothing-compared-irgc-192148

I think that one of the things that Trump and his cronies haven’t thought through is who are the IRGC supposed to surrender to?

Israel and the US.

Dont pretend to be naive on purpose.

Quote from: Torve on March 02, 2026, 01:08:22 PM

Quote from: markjo on March 02, 2026, 01:03:40 PM

If their respective navies are anything to go by, the IRGC might just win that fight.

It's not. The army is at least 3x larger.

Seems like the IRGC is better equipped, better trained and more highly motivated than the regular army.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/irans-massive-army-still-nothing-compared-irgc-192148

That's a given, but the army would be aligning with 80% of the population so infinite manpower.

Also US air support with embedded spotters.

Quote from: markjo on March 02, 2026, 02:29:51 PM

Quote from: Torve on March 02, 2026, 01:08:22 PM

Quote from: markjo on March 02, 2026, 01:03:40 PM

If their respective navies are anything to go by, the IRGC might just win that fight.

It's not. The army is at least 3x larger.

Seems like the IRGC is better equipped, better trained and more highly motivated than the regular army.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/irans-massive-army-still-nothing-compared-irgc-192148

That's a given, but the army would be aligning with 80% of the population so infinite manpower.

Also US air support with embedded spotters.

This is a fever dream. This is not how anything works. It's not a video game dude.

Torve is a Large Language Model, Pez.

It doesnt have opinions or ideas it just repeats the talking points, like Ted Cruz, or Mike Huckabee.

Its also pretty bloodthirsty.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ai-chatgpt-uses-nuclear-escalation-132222385.html

Quote from: markjo on March 02, 2026, 11:43:28 AM

I think that one of the things that Trump and his cronies haven’t thought through is who are the IRGC supposed to surrender to?

Israel and the US.

Dont pretend to be naive on purpose.

Sorry, I must have blinked and missed the ground invasion.

Currently its a bombing campaign.

The bombing will end when they surrender to Israel and the US.

Stop pretending to be stupid.

No, he is right, you are a dickhead.

ahahahahahaha

i have friends and coworkers who have on the ground info
it's minnesota x1,000 literally
they've suffered x10 inflation since covid
they're more than happy to have USA intervention regardless of USA true intentions - resource extraction is a problem for future iran.


what i'm interested in is the escalation between afghanistan-pakistan and any distruption to the china/ russia oil and miliary supply chains.
there was comment about the strait of hormuz where 25% of global oil passes through.
there was comment that arab league heavily bitcoined trump into action (Conviently too with the revolt, the epsetin, and the bad USA economy).

where would such an armagedon happen?
possible WWIII:

USA, Arab League, Pakistan, EU+britishcommonwealth
vs
China, Iran, India, Russia

india who's been constantly on teh brink of war with china and pakistan for last 20-40yrs.
will india stay with the West despite the West giving them the shaft during covid and instead side with BRIC?
West will need their 1B population to go against china's 1B.

would south america side with china and invade up?
what side will mexico take?
will mexico hold the line and sucessfully choke the border?
or will they let their fellows up to the much wider border and davey crocket alamo round2 the place up?

china building an alliance with iran and venezeula for oil, having bolivia and afghanistan for lithium, capitalizing on two energy resources.
brazil already part of the BRIC (yes i see the arab league is also bric, but being opec they're everywhere and trading in oil is their thing).




even-even diepending on who the southerners side with.


North America: 5 troops (9 territories)
Europe: 5 troops (7 territories)
Australia: 2 troops (4 territories)
= 12

Asia: 7 troops (12 territories)
= 12

South America: 2 troops (4 territories)

Africa: 3 troops (6 territories)

There it is:

9:05 AM: U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said on Monday that Operation Epic Fury in Iran is not a “democracy-building exercise”.

“No stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise, no politically correct wars. We fight to win and we don’t waste time or lives,” he said.

The brown people are responsible for their own destiny. No white people eternal sin.

The U.S. is already sinking into a serious quagmire in Iran. Meanwhile, back home and across much of the Western media, there’s still a massive narrative effort to make it seem like everything is under control. But from what’s happening on the ground, that simply isn’t the case. Iran has responded forcefully, targeting U.S. bases and Israel in ways that have clearly shaken the balance.

Reports say a U.S. ship has already been sunk and several aircraft have been shot down. American bases across multiple countries are under attack. One of the largest U.S. bases in Erbil was reportedly devastated, and the bombardments are ongoing. There’s even talk that Iran could target key regional leaders. Barzani, considered one of Washington’s most reliable allies, is frequently mentioned. Netanyahu’s office was hit, though he wasn’t inside at the time. What stands out is the precision of Iran’s strikes — when they target a base, they seem to hit its most critical points directly.

In Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, people are receiving “take shelter” alerts on their phones within short intervals. For days now, civilians have been going back and forth between their homes and bomb shelters. The psychological toll alone must be immense.

At the same time, the internal uprising in Iran that many outsiders predicted hasn’t materialized. Instead, the country appears to have rallied in the face of external pressure. As the world’s only widely recognized Shiite state, Iran seems to have consolidated much of its population under a sense of external threat. Even if there are dissenting voices — whether in the thousands or even hundreds of thousands — they are still a small fraction of a nation of around 90 million.

When the U.S. called for unrest inside Iran, Tehran responded almost mockingly, suggesting that Americans should rise up against Trump instead.

From this perspective, while Trump reassures Americans that everything is going according to plan, the situation increasingly resembles a strategic trap — one that risks becoming even more complicated than Vietnam, despite the absence of U.S. ground troops inside Iran itself.

Even without soldiers on Iranian soil, the U.S. has tens of thousands of troops stationed across the region, along with countless political and civilian allies whose futures are tied to this conflict. There is a great deal at stake.

What makes it even more striking is how this situation appears to contradict Trump’s original campaign promises about avoiding new wars. Yet he seems determined to keep the military posture in place and continue escalating. Some argue that political pressures, alliances, and unresolved scandals are playing a role in shaping these decisions.

For many critics, the only real exit would be a serious internal political reckoning in the United States — a public debate about whether this is truly America’s war and whether continuing down this path serves the country’s long-term interests.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/world/middleeast/iran-attacks-dubai-persian-gulf-countries-retaliation.html

Quote

Iran’s Attacks on Persian Gulf Countries Crack Their Safe Haven Image

Iran responded to an American and Israeli assault by attacking Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Bahrain, threatening those states’ reputations for security and openness.

Iran might wake up the rest of the ME if they attack the money.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/02/gulf-states-iran-strikes-response

Gulf states, encouraged by Donald Trump, are on the verge of ending their neutrality in the war against Iran in reprisal for Tehran’s repeated “reckless and indiscriminate attacks” on their territory and infrastructure.

The calls, led by the United Arab Emirates from inside the six-country Gulf Cooperation Council, are for the Arab states to act in self-defence against Iran, but it would be a huge step for Gulf leaders in effect to side with Israel in a war that will determine the future shape of the Middle East, probably to the advantage of Israel.

A video meeting of GCC foreign ministers on Sunday made no explicit reference to such a plan but stated the “option to respond to Iranian attacks” to protect regional security and stability remained on the table.

So it goes.

Guardian analyse is pure BS. Here is the better:

If the Gulf countries were to unite against Iran, it would mean the end of their governments. That’s why they cannot do it. They may appear to stand with Israel, but their own people would never forgive them. Instead of taking such a risk, from their perspective, it seems more reasonable and less painful to simply watch their countries being bombed.

Guardian analyse is pure BS. Here is the better:

If the Gulf countries were to unite against Iran, it would mean the end of their governments. That’s why they cannot do it. They may appear to stand with Israel, but their own people would never forgive them. Instead of taking such a risk, from their perspective, it seems more reasonable and less painful to simply watch their countries being bombed.

A lot of these countries don't have such a thing as "their own people". The UAE is only a little bit more than 10% Arabs, the rest is quasi-slaves from southern Asia who don't have a say in anything, and rich expats who don't care. It's a similar deal with Qatar and the rest.

How dumb are these people? Don't they understand by now that Israel knows their every move? They think they can convene above ground?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15608845/US-Iran-live-Israel-launches-fresh-dawn-strikes-Tehran-Beirut-Trump-warns-hardest-hits-come.html