War

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JJA

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Re: War
« Reply #120 on: February 14, 2022, 03:21:32 AM »
There are some interesting tweets in there.  I don't quite understand some of them.

There's these:
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491440754690256897
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491442438069964800

"The goal of massing troops is not to invade but to put a lot of fear into the West to force everyone on this side to agree."

How would this benefit Putin?

"The source also added Putin has never been more isolated, very few people speak to him now.  the world inside his head is only his own."

I don't know what that means either.

I really wish there was an easy way to embed tweets here like we embed youtube videos.

I think the first just means that Russia wants to scare Ukraine and NATO into thinking there will be an invasion so that they have much greater leverage for negotiations. Already the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK said they are considering to drop their plans to join NATO in order to avoid war. It's very likely what is actually happening, though I'm not sure this "insider" knows much.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-might-consider-to-drop-nato-bid-to-avoid-war-ambassador-says/

Or not.  Putin is massing troops, threatening to invade another country.  There is nobody to blame for this but Putin, and if he invades it won't be because he was 'provoked' but because he for whatever his reasons decided that a war would be good for him personally.

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Space Cowgirl

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Re: War
« Reply #121 on: February 14, 2022, 11:59:48 AM »
Quote
US to temporarily relocate Ukraine embassy from Kyiv to Lviv, Secretary Blinken saysUS Embassy operations in Ukraine will be temporarily relocated from the capital to the western city of Lviv due to the “dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Monday. US officials have repeatedly called on American citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, warning that a Russian invasion could come at any moment, including as soon as this week.

WAR IS IMMINENT! (again)

Zelenskyy still says Ukraine doesn't think it will happen.

Also https://www.reuters.com/business/futures-slide-fears-potential-russian-attack-ukraine-2022-02-14/

Quote
NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Wall Street indexes turned sharply lower on Monday, as news that the United States is closing its Kyiv embassy in Ukraine heightened geopolitical tensions and prompted a sell-off in choppy trading.

All three major indexes fell after the Wall Street Journal reported on the relocation of U.S. diplomatic operations to western Ukraine, in a possible harbinger of imminent Russian invasion.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged state officials, politicians and business leaders who have recently left the country to return within 24 hours to show unity. "We have been told that February 16 will be the day of the attack, but we will make it the day of unity," he said. 

Won't someone think about the suffering of Wall Street?
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Crouton

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Re: War
« Reply #122 on: February 14, 2022, 12:13:15 PM »
There are some interesting tweets in there.  I don't quite understand some of them.

There's these:
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491440754690256897
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491442438069964800

"The goal of massing troops is not to invade but to put a lot of fear into the West to force everyone on this side to agree."

How would this benefit Putin?

"The source also added Putin has never been more isolated, very few people speak to him now.  the world inside his head is only his own."

I don't know what that means either.

I really wish there was an easy way to embed tweets here like we embed youtube videos.

I think the first just means that Russia wants to scare Ukraine and NATO into thinking there will be an invasion so that they have much greater leverage for negotiations. Already the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK said they are considering to drop their plans to join NATO in order to avoid war. It's very likely what is actually happening, though I'm not sure this "insider" knows much.

Interesting.  If their goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO by agreeing to not invade I'm not sure how that yields a benefit for Russia since the purpose of NATO is preventing invasions.

It would be like some crazy guy threatening to murder a girl if she calls the police.  But if she agrees to not call the police then he'll leave.  Sort of makes you wonder why he even bothered.  Unless he wants everyone to think he's insane.
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Crouton

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Re: War
« Reply #123 on: February 14, 2022, 12:14:32 PM »
Quote
US to temporarily relocate Ukraine embassy from Kyiv to Lviv, Secretary Blinken saysUS Embassy operations in Ukraine will be temporarily relocated from the capital to the western city of Lviv due to the “dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Monday. US officials have repeatedly called on American citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, warning that a Russian invasion could come at any moment, including as soon as this week.

WAR IS IMMINENT! (again)

Zelenskyy still says Ukraine doesn't think it will happen.

Also https://www.reuters.com/business/futures-slide-fears-potential-russian-attack-ukraine-2022-02-14/

Quote
NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Wall Street indexes turned sharply lower on Monday, as news that the United States is closing its Kyiv embassy in Ukraine heightened geopolitical tensions and prompted a sell-off in choppy trading.

All three major indexes fell after the Wall Street Journal reported on the relocation of U.S. diplomatic operations to western Ukraine, in a possible harbinger of imminent Russian invasion.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged state officials, politicians and business leaders who have recently left the country to return within 24 hours to show unity. "We have been told that February 16 will be the day of the attack, but we will make it the day of unity," he said. 

Won't someone think about the suffering of Wall Street?

Getting our people out would be more concerning if it weren't for Afghanistan.  I wonder if maybe they're trying to compensate for now getting out of there fast enough.
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Lorddave

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Re: War
« Reply #124 on: February 14, 2022, 01:08:34 PM »
There are some interesting tweets in there.  I don't quite understand some of them.

There's these:
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491440754690256897
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491442438069964800

"The goal of massing troops is not to invade but to put a lot of fear into the West to force everyone on this side to agree."

How would this benefit Putin?

"The source also added Putin has never been more isolated, very few people speak to him now.  the world inside his head is only his own."

I don't know what that means either.

I really wish there was an easy way to embed tweets here like we embed youtube videos.

I think the first just means that Russia wants to scare Ukraine and NATO into thinking there will be an invasion so that they have much greater leverage for negotiations. Already the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK said they are considering to drop their plans to join NATO in order to avoid war. It's very likely what is actually happening, though I'm not sure this "insider" knows much.

Interesting.  If their goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO by agreeing to not invade I'm not sure how that yields a benefit for Russia since the purpose of NATO is preventing invasions.

It would be like some crazy guy threatening to murder a girl if she calls the police.  But if she agrees to not call the police then he'll leave.  Sort of makes you wonder why he even bothered.  Unless he wants everyone to think he's insane.

But thats a valid and non-crazy move.
"Don't call the cops or I'll kill you" and you pray he keeps his word.

Right now thats what he wants.  And if he invandes, Nato may not intervene.  The US will but Ukraine will be the one hurt.  And even if Russia loses, you still have the people of Ukrane pissed because the US damaged their country.
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Pezevenk

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Re: War
« Reply #125 on: February 14, 2022, 01:18:37 PM »
There are some interesting tweets in there.  I don't quite understand some of them.

There's these:
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491440754690256897
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491442438069964800

"The goal of massing troops is not to invade but to put a lot of fear into the West to force everyone on this side to agree."

How would this benefit Putin?

"The source also added Putin has never been more isolated, very few people speak to him now.  the world inside his head is only his own."

I don't know what that means either.

I really wish there was an easy way to embed tweets here like we embed youtube videos.

I think the first just means that Russia wants to scare Ukraine and NATO into thinking there will be an invasion so that they have much greater leverage for negotiations. Already the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK said they are considering to drop their plans to join NATO in order to avoid war. It's very likely what is actually happening, though I'm not sure this "insider" knows much.

Interesting.  If their goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO by agreeing to not invade I'm not sure how that yields a benefit for Russia since the purpose of NATO is preventing invasions.

It would be like some crazy guy threatening to murder a girl if she calls the police.  But if she agrees to not call the police then he'll leave.  Sort of makes you wonder why he even bothered.  Unless he wants everyone to think he's insane.

But that's not the point of NATO...

I don't know if you watched it but after Putin met Macron he very specifically warned that if Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to take back Crimea, then the NATO countries would be dragged into a war with Russia. Russia has repeatedly warned Ukraine against joining NATO. Their major goals is to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the Crimea matter to be settled. A secondary goal would be to annex Donetsk probably but that's far more distant and unrealistic than the other two and I don't think it's the main thing they want to pursue. NATO means US influence and military bases in the area. That's the biggest thing that Russia does not want.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2022, 01:25:07 PM by Pezevenk »
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Themightykabool

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Re: War
« Reply #126 on: February 14, 2022, 01:29:22 PM »
they should have a vote to split ukraine in half.

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Pezevenk

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Re: War
« Reply #127 on: February 14, 2022, 01:47:13 PM »
The one thing that I don't really agree with with many people's takes is that they seem to be predicated on Putin being a nutter, and acting completely alone. For starters Russia and the foreign policy of Russia isn't just Putin, and I've never seen anything from Putin that made me think he is nuts. Brutal yes, but calculated. I've never felt like he was some unstable wacko. Neither him nor Lavrov or anyone important. I don't believe at all the people saying he's like new Hitler, or acting on whims etc. If he does something it's because he thinks it is a reasonable risk, and he is very well aware of the limitations of Russia's power. In fact he's even admitted it these past few days. After all we know what he does, he's been president of Russia for more than two decades now (well, technically he wasn't for a brief period but everyone knows he really was). So a lot of these things that people say mostly in anglo media about this just seem really weird and doesn't really match what I know (Greek media actually seems to be a little bit different on this subject which might be because of the greater proximity to Russia and Ukraine, some people in Greece having a pro Russia tilt and the fact that eastern Ukraine and especially Donetsk has a significant Russian speaking Greek minority which kind of complicates things).
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JJA

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Re: War
« Reply #128 on: February 14, 2022, 01:49:51 PM »
But that's not the point of NATO...

I don't know if you watched it but after Putin met Macron he very specifically warned that if Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to take back Crimea, then the NATO countries would be dragged into a war with Russia.

Woah there. Joining NATO and starting a war to take back Crimea are two very different things.

That's like warning the Ukraine not to join NATO and launch biological weapons all over the world. The one does not automatically follow the other.

Only time will tell if Putin is really as crazy as he is trying to look or if it's all posturing. If he's decided he wants to invade, nothing anyone says is going to stop him.

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JJA

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Re: War
« Reply #129 on: February 14, 2022, 01:52:43 PM »
The one thing that I don't really agree with with many people's takes is that they seem to be predicated on Putin being a nutter, and acting completely alone. For starters Russia and the foreign policy of Russia isn't just Putin, and I've never seen anything from Putin that made me think he is nuts.

I would have to also disagree here too. Putin is a dictator in everything but title at this point. Brutal repression of any opposition, total control of the countries economy. Billionaires are made, and unmade at his word.

Just who is going to tell him no? A military coup is the only thing that could dethrone him now.

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Lorddave

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Re: War
« Reply #130 on: February 14, 2022, 02:07:24 PM »
But that's not the point of NATO...

I don't know if you watched it but after Putin met Macron he very specifically warned that if Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to take back Crimea, then the NATO countries would be dragged into a war with Russia.

Woah there. Joining NATO and starting a war to take back Crimea are two very different things.

That's like warning the Ukraine not to join NATO and launch biological weapons all over the world. The one does not automatically follow the other.

Only time will tell if Putin is really as crazy as he is trying to look or if it's all posturing. If he's decided he wants to invade, nothing anyone says is going to stop him.

Its not as unrelated as you'd think.
Once you're in Nato, you can convince your allies to help you retake it.
But its not like Ukraine could join tomorrow.

Honestly, I think Putin is just afraid of being outflanked on all sides by US/Nato bases.  Which is not unreasonable, especially if you're a ruthlessly calculating dictator.

His hope is to scare Ukraine into not joining Nato or even trying to.  And public opinion is easily going to be "Don't join if it means no war."
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JJA

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Re: War
« Reply #131 on: February 14, 2022, 02:18:50 PM »
But that's not the point of NATO...

I don't know if you watched it but after Putin met Macron he very specifically warned that if Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to take back Crimea, then the NATO countries would be dragged into a war with Russia.

Woah there. Joining NATO and starting a war to take back Crimea are two very different things.

That's like warning the Ukraine not to join NATO and launch biological weapons all over the world. The one does not automatically follow the other.

Only time will tell if Putin is really as crazy as he is trying to look or if it's all posturing. If he's decided he wants to invade, nothing anyone says is going to stop him.

Its not as unrelated as you'd think.
Once you're in Nato, you can convince your allies to help you retake it.
But its not like Ukraine could join tomorrow.

Honestly, I think Putin is just afraid of being outflanked on all sides by US/Nato bases.  Which is not unreasonable, especially if you're a ruthlessly calculating dictator.

His hope is to scare Ukraine into not joining Nato or even trying to.  And public opinion is easily going to be "Don't join if it means no war."

Again, slow down. :)

"Hey guys, can I invite you to a land war with Russia?" - Ukraine

There is going to be close to zero chance for anyone agreeing to that.  Slightly higher than the chances of Ukraine joining NATO in the first place.

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Crouton

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Re: War
« Reply #132 on: February 14, 2022, 02:39:12 PM »
There are some interesting tweets in there.  I don't quite understand some of them.

There's these:
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491440754690256897
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491442438069964800

"The goal of massing troops is not to invade but to put a lot of fear into the West to force everyone on this side to agree."

How would this benefit Putin?

"The source also added Putin has never been more isolated, very few people speak to him now.  the world inside his head is only his own."

I don't know what that means either.

I really wish there was an easy way to embed tweets here like we embed youtube videos.

I think the first just means that Russia wants to scare Ukraine and NATO into thinking there will be an invasion so that they have much greater leverage for negotiations. Already the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK said they are considering to drop their plans to join NATO in order to avoid war. It's very likely what is actually happening, though I'm not sure this "insider" knows much.

Interesting.  If their goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO by agreeing to not invade I'm not sure how that yields a benefit for Russia since the purpose of NATO is preventing invasions.

It would be like some crazy guy threatening to murder a girl if she calls the police.  But if she agrees to not call the police then he'll leave.  Sort of makes you wonder why he even bothered.  Unless he wants everyone to think he's insane.

But that's not the point of NATO...

I don't know if you watched it but after Putin met Macron he very specifically warned that if Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to take back Crimea, then the NATO countries would be dragged into a war with Russia. Russia has repeatedly warned Ukraine against joining NATO. Their major goals is to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the Crimea matter to be settled. A secondary goal would be to annex Donetsk probably but that's far more distant and unrealistic than the other two and I don't think it's the main thing they want to pursue. NATO means US influence and military bases in the area. That's the biggest thing that Russia does not want.

I'm looking at the NATO articles from what I can tell it looks like that's exactly the point of NATO.  A bunch of countries close to Russia are afraid of Russia invading them, a fear which is completely rational btw, so they have a mutual defense pact.  Military bases and US influence comes with the territory of such an agreement.  Seems to me that the best way to stop the expansion of NATO would be for Russia to stop invading other countries.
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Lorddave

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Re: War
« Reply #133 on: February 15, 2022, 01:41:22 AM »
Invasion tomorrow, according to the Ukrainian president, if no deal can be made diplomatically.
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Crouton

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Re: War
« Reply #134 on: February 15, 2022, 01:50:04 AM »
That's an interesting negotiation tactic.  But what if Russia refuses to invade?  Or did he mean Ukraine is going to invade?

A bold move.  Should take the Russians off guard.  It's just crazy enough to work.
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Lorddave

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Re: War
« Reply #135 on: February 15, 2022, 02:03:39 AM »
That's an interesting negotiation tactic.  But what if Russia refuses to invade?  Or did he mean Ukraine is going to invade?

A bold move.  Should take the Russians off guard.  It's just crazy enough to work.

From the news i saw, the intelligence from Ukraine said that russia will invade on the 16th.
Russia says they have no plans.

So we'll see what happens tomorrow.
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Themightykabool

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Re: War
« Reply #136 on: February 15, 2022, 05:39:55 AM »
Good night, Ukraine. Good work. Sleep well. I'll most likely kill you in the morning

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Crouton

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Re: War
« Reply #137 on: February 15, 2022, 06:54:52 AM »
That's an interesting negotiation tactic.  But what if Russia refuses to invade?  Or did he mean Ukraine is going to invade?

A bold move.  Should take the Russians off guard.  It's just crazy enough to work.

From the news i saw, the intelligence from Ukraine said that russia will invade on the 16th.
Russia says they have no plans.

So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

From what I can tell the president of Ukraine was more or less repeating information from I think US intelligence.  It doesn't sound like it involved much new information.
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Space Cowgirl

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Re: War
« Reply #138 on: February 15, 2022, 07:26:25 AM »
That's an interesting negotiation tactic.  But what if Russia refuses to invade?  Or did he mean Ukraine is going to invade?

A bold move.  Should take the Russians off guard.  It's just crazy enough to work.

From the news i saw, the intelligence from Ukraine said that russia will invade on the 16th.
Russia says they have no plans.

So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

From what I can tell the president of Ukraine was more or less repeating information from I think US intelligence.  It doesn't sound like it involved much new information.

Yes, it's the US who say the invasion is tomorrow, Zelenskyy wants tomorrow to be a holiday.

Quote
Ukraine: Russia says it is withdrawing some troops from the Ukraine borderRussia's defense ministry confirmed on Tuesday that some of the troops stationed on the country's border with Ukraine are returning to their bases after completing drills, Interfax news agency reports. The news agency added large-scale drills will continue across the country. It comes as President Joe Biden’s deputy principal press secretary said Russia has not moved to deescalate its presence on Ukraine’s border, where some 100,000 troops are massed. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Moscow on Tuesday for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Maybe Olaf can talk Putin into packing up and going home.
I'm sorry. Am I to understand that when you have a boner you like to imagine punching the shit out of Tom Bishop? That's disgusting.

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Crouton

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Re: War
« Reply #139 on: February 15, 2022, 07:32:39 AM »
Sounds like a good sign.  Unless they're taking a shortcut through Kiev.

Maybe that slightest of concessions from the president of Ukraine was enough for Putin to save face.
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sokarul

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Re: War
« Reply #140 on: February 15, 2022, 08:36:24 AM »
I am now reading a claim that it was all west propaganda and no attack was ever going to happen.
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Themightykabool

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Re: War
« Reply #141 on: February 15, 2022, 09:01:03 AM »
is it a pattern?
do they (the big guys) always take turns who's going to be at war?
is it putin's turn to fuel his war machine?




cuba-russia vs usa
afghan1-usa vs russia
afghan2-russia vs usa
desert storm-usa vs iraq-USSR
syria-russia vs usa
korea-china vs usa
viet-russia/ china? vs usa
ukraine-usa vs russia

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Space Cowgirl

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Re: War
« Reply #142 on: February 15, 2022, 09:41:15 AM »
Now the MSM are going after Zero Hedge for spreading Russian propaganda.
I'm sorry. Am I to understand that when you have a boner you like to imagine punching the shit out of Tom Bishop? That's disgusting.

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Crouton

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Re: War
« Reply #143 on: February 15, 2022, 09:48:23 AM »
Looks like it's a bit more serious than that.  It looks like it's the US government that's accusing Zero Hedge of spreading Russian propaganda.  It seems that Zero Hedge has a history of this.  https://newrepublic.com/article/156788/zero-hedge-russian-trojan-horse
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Space Cowgirl

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Re: War
« Reply #144 on: February 15, 2022, 10:05:13 AM »
Are they blaming Zero Hedge for the invasion that's supposed to happen tomorrow? (jk)

The msm tweeters (journalists from several of the major cable outlets) keep repeating that Zero Hedge has 1.2 million Twitter followers, and then their followers reply with demands that Twitter "do something".  I bet many of their followers follow them for the same reason I follow some people - just to see wtf they tweet about.   
I'm sorry. Am I to understand that when you have a boner you like to imagine punching the shit out of Tom Bishop? That's disgusting.

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Pezevenk

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Re: War
« Reply #145 on: February 15, 2022, 10:42:53 AM »
There are some interesting tweets in there.  I don't quite understand some of them.

There's these:
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491440754690256897
https://twitter.com/shustry/status/1491442438069964800

"The goal of massing troops is not to invade but to put a lot of fear into the West to force everyone on this side to agree."

How would this benefit Putin?

"The source also added Putin has never been more isolated, very few people speak to him now.  the world inside his head is only his own."

I don't know what that means either.

I really wish there was an easy way to embed tweets here like we embed youtube videos.

I think the first just means that Russia wants to scare Ukraine and NATO into thinking there will be an invasion so that they have much greater leverage for negotiations. Already the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK said they are considering to drop their plans to join NATO in order to avoid war. It's very likely what is actually happening, though I'm not sure this "insider" knows much.

Interesting.  If their goal is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO by agreeing to not invade I'm not sure how that yields a benefit for Russia since the purpose of NATO is preventing invasions.

It would be like some crazy guy threatening to murder a girl if she calls the police.  But if she agrees to not call the police then he'll leave.  Sort of makes you wonder why he even bothered.  Unless he wants everyone to think he's insane.

But that's not the point of NATO...

I don't know if you watched it but after Putin met Macron he very specifically warned that if Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to take back Crimea, then the NATO countries would be dragged into a war with Russia. Russia has repeatedly warned Ukraine against joining NATO. Their major goals is to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the Crimea matter to be settled. A secondary goal would be to annex Donetsk probably but that's far more distant and unrealistic than the other two and I don't think it's the main thing they want to pursue. NATO means US influence and military bases in the area. That's the biggest thing that Russia does not want.

I'm looking at the NATO articles from what I can tell it looks like that's exactly the point of NATO.  A bunch of countries close to Russia are afraid of Russia invading them, a fear which is completely rational btw, so they have a mutual defense pact.  Military bases and US influence comes with the territory of such an agreement.  Seems to me that the best way to stop the expansion of NATO would be for Russia to stop invading other countries.

NATO is for "preventing invasions" about as much as bath salts are for your bath... Like, yeah, that's the idea on the label but that's not the point...

Also I... Think you're kind of confused because NATO was created by a few western countries and later dominated by the US and let's just say neither the US nor Canada are anywhere close to Russia, and most of the original treaty countries were never in any real risk of invasion by the USSR and didn't share any borders. In fact Canada and the US are about as far from Russia as they can be. Greece is in NATO too. I can assure you that absolutely nobody in Greece has ever seriously had the concern that Russia may invade us. NATO was a cold war invention of the US, the point of which was to create a "western bloc" to counter the USSR primarily and serve the foreign policy interests of the US more broadly. The USSR had its own "NATO" in response, the Warsaw pact.

As for the invading other countries part, how common do you think what you are describing is? Russia has not done something like what you are describing to anyone besides Ukraine for a long time, and what is often missed regarding Ukraine is that a big part of the conflict is essentially a civil irredentist conflict between ethnic groups within Ukraine, like the Chechen wars in Russia or the troubles in Ireland. You're making it seem like Russia just keeps invading neighboring countries and is trying to take over everyone when it's just not in a position to do that neither really intending to, barring a few specific long standing disputes involving Russian populations in other places and occasionally sending troops to other places at the request of allied countries, like in Syria. Russia tries to exert influence a lot but not typically by invading other places, it's just not something that common.

As for the NATO thing, both Greece and Turkey are in NATO. And yet Turkey disputes some Greek islands, and is also occupying part of Cyprus. You probably don't know it but a couple years ago many people were worried there would be some sort of incident between Greece and Turkey which could escalate to war, kind of similar to the current stand off in Ukraine. But neither Turkey nor Greece are concerned about a Russian invasion. So you have countries within NATO (supposedly to protect member states from invasions by Russia, right?) that are not threatened at all by Russia, and are instead primarily threatened by other countries within NATO. And obviously NATO did not freak out about any of this nearly as much as it's freaking out about a non-NATO country, where a large component of the issue is essentially a civil conflict between ethnic groups. Does any of this sound normal to you?
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Pezevenk

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Re: War
« Reply #146 on: February 15, 2022, 10:58:30 AM »
But that's not the point of NATO...

I don't know if you watched it but after Putin met Macron he very specifically warned that if Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to take back Crimea, then the NATO countries would be dragged into a war with Russia.

Woah there. Joining NATO and starting a war to take back Crimea are two very different things.

That's like warning the Ukraine not to join NATO and launch biological weapons all over the world. The one does not automatically follow the other.

Only time will tell if Putin is really as crazy as he is trying to look or if it's all posturing. If he's decided he wants to invade, nothing anyone says is going to stop him.

Yes, but you understand that Russia is worried that Ukraine will use its NATO status to take back Crimea as well as install more US military bases close to Russia. As for "starting" a war, there is no need to start one, they are STILL in war since 2014, and Ukraine considers Crimea to be an occupied territory. Of course Ukraine would not automatically try to invade Crimea if they joined NATO but Russia is worried they would be in a far better position to do something like that.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2022, 11:04:08 AM by Pezevenk »
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Pezevenk

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Re: War
« Reply #147 on: February 15, 2022, 11:01:32 AM »
The one thing that I don't really agree with with many people's takes is that they seem to be predicated on Putin being a nutter, and acting completely alone. For starters Russia and the foreign policy of Russia isn't just Putin, and I've never seen anything from Putin that made me think he is nuts.

I would have to also disagree here too. Putin is a dictator in everything but title at this point. Brutal repression of any opposition, total control of the countries economy. Billionaires are made, and unmade at his word.

Just who is going to tell him no? A military coup is the only thing that could dethrone him now.

Putin and his government in general is who Russian oligarchs decided is the best to further their interests and maintain a balance of powers between them. He remains there as long as he is efficient at doing that, which he is, and as long as he is popular in Russia, which he is. But that doesn't mean he just acts alone on his whims.
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JJA

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Re: War
« Reply #148 on: February 15, 2022, 11:09:50 AM »
But that's not the point of NATO...

I don't know if you watched it but after Putin met Macron he very specifically warned that if Ukraine joined NATO and then tried to take back Crimea, then the NATO countries would be dragged into a war with Russia.

Woah there. Joining NATO and starting a war to take back Crimea are two very different things.

That's like warning the Ukraine not to join NATO and launch biological weapons all over the world. The one does not automatically follow the other.

Only time will tell if Putin is really as crazy as he is trying to look or if it's all posturing. If he's decided he wants to invade, nothing anyone says is going to stop him.

Yes, but you understand that Russia is worried that Ukraine will use its NATO status to take back Crimea as well as install more US military bases close to Russia. As for "starting" a war, there is no need to start one, they are STILL in war since 2014, and Ukraine considers Crimea to be an occupied territory. Of course Ukraine would not automatically try to invade Crimea if they joined NATO but Russia is worried they would be in a far better position to do something like that.

No, I don't understand that.  Putin is a smart guy, he knows as well as anyone else NATO doesn't want to get involved with a military invasion of Crimeria.

Poor Putin.

If he didn't want to have to worry about all this then maybe he shouldn't have annexed part of another country.  ::)

?

Lorddave

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Re: War
« Reply #149 on: February 15, 2022, 12:15:25 PM »
That's an interesting negotiation tactic.  But what if Russia refuses to invade?  Or did he mean Ukraine is going to invade?

A bold move.  Should take the Russians off guard.  It's just crazy enough to work.

From the news i saw, the intelligence from Ukraine said that russia will invade on the 16th.
Russia says they have no plans.

So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

From what I can tell the president of Ukraine was more or less repeating information from I think US intelligence.  It doesn't sound like it involved much new information.

Yes, it's the US who say the invasion is tomorrow, Zelenskyy wants tomorrow to be a holiday.

Oh good.  So its only half reliable intel.

Looks like it's a bit more serious than that.  It looks like it's the US government that's accusing Zero Hedge of spreading Russian propaganda.  It seems that Zero Hedge has a history of this.  https://newrepublic.com/article/156788/zero-hedge-russian-trojan-horse
Sounds like alot of spy vs spy to me.

But hey, maybe this was just Putin trolling everyone.  Sending 100,000 troops to the border. Complaining about stuff.. then watching everyone lose their shit.  See how they react.  What deals they offer.  All the while never intending to do anything.

Gone.