War

The Guardian quoting David Frum as if he didn't give us the "Axis of Evil".

My biggest fear is we have a repeat of Germany in the years leading to WW2 where they annex nations and Europe just lets them for one reason or another.

I'm glad Ukraine is planning for the long haul, tho.  Hopefully that training won't be used...

Arming a bunch of rag tag civilians is stupid. Look how the 'Syrian Rebels' turned out. I remember when the MSM was rooting for them and allied countries gave them weapons

Then they morphed into ISIS

We never learn from our mistakes in history. Didn't we also help arm Afghanistan in their fight against the USSR at the time by giving local militia groups weapons? And we again gave weapons to the Afghan army only for them to not even bother to fight when it came time to defend themselves and now the Taliban has a lot of them.

There's no easy answer or a path that won't turn around and bite us in the arse in future years. Random militia groups might be useful fodder now but you cant be sure of their underlying ideology. Will they settle down when the war is over? Or will they start a new war inside the country they defended?

It is very disturbing that putin is using the same strategies that Hitler used. But Hitler was delusional. Putin seems rational. A rational person wouldn't overextend himself the same way that Hitler did.

Mini war is better than a big war



And more profitbale.

Arming a bunch of rag tag civilians is stupid.

National.Guard.

Look how the 'Syrian Rebels' turned out. I remember when the MSM was rooting for them and allied countries gave them weapons

Then they morphed into ISIS

We never learn from our mistakes in history. Didn't we also help arm Afghanistan in their fight against the USSR at the time by giving local militia groups weapons? And we again gave weapons to the Afghan army only for them to not even bother to fight when it came time to defend themselves and now the Taliban has a lot of them.

There's no easy answer or a path that won't turn around and bite us in the arse in future years. Random militia groups might be useful fodder now but you cant be sure of their underlying ideology. Will they settle down when the war is over? Or will they start a new war inside the country they defended?

Its not easy, true, but Ukraine is training their own people.  Its vastly different than a third party comming in to do it.
The risk is you train russian sympathizers and end up with a civil war.

Canada and usa are training them

Some of the Ukrainian Militias are probably pretty close to real Nazis. 

They are pretty dodgy.  Ironically some of them were funded by a Jewish oligarch who had business interests in Donbas - Ukraine is a pretty mad old place at times.

Canada and usa are training them

Oh.
Then thats dumb as fuck.

The risk is you train russian sympathizers and end up with a civil war.

They already have a civil war.  The war in Donbas has been going for 8 years and plenty of militias have been fighting over there.

Quote from: Lorddave on January 26, 2022, 10:09:17 PM

The risk is you train russian sympathizers and end up with a civil war.

They already have a civil war.  The war in Donbas has been going for 8 years and plenty of militias have been fighting over there.

Ah.
So just adding more logs to the bonfire eh?

Quote from: JimmyTheCrab on January 27, 2022, 06:07:07 AM

Quote from: Lorddave on January 26, 2022, 10:09:17 PM

The risk is you train russian sympathizers and end up with a civil war.

They already have a civil war.  The war in Donbas has been going for 8 years and plenty of militias have been fighting over there.

Ah.
So just adding more logs to the bonfire eh?

Yeah.  I suspect if Putin does go in, it will be just into Donbas to capture the whole oblast for the separatists and declare it an "autonomous" region under Russian protection.  This will include capturing Mariupol (which fell to separatists early on but was recaptured)  - a significant city with a decent economy.

Things could get real nasty there though, as many pro-Ukrainians from the rest of the region have fled to it, so it's largely anti-Russian now

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-city-tries-to-ward-off-russia-by-promising-a-better-future-11643135362

Why are they fighting anyway?  And why isn't it international news?  You'd think open warfare would be big.

solomon - cut the baby in half!

it's impossible to defend with such an open border.
but there's a water way splitting the country.
N/S korea this bitch up.

Why are they fighting anyway?  And why isn't it international news?  You'd think open warfare would be big.

Basically they are fighting because separatists in the region didn't want to be ruled from Kyiv and were more Russia facing.   Though it all kicked off after Crimea was annexed, Yanukovych was deposed and a Western facing government took power.

Russia poured in troops (though under the guise of being Ukrainian separatists) and arms into the region and the separatists started taking over cities etc.  Obviously the Ukrainian government wasn't impressed and sent it's troops in.  Plenty of militias also headed down there (Ukraine barely had much of a regular army at the time).   It's been a really nasty war, with both sides barely more than gangsters at times.  Rules of war rarely followed and torture commonplace.  Something like 14,000 have died.

It's all pretty low level now with regular peace agreements, then it kicks off again.  Part of the problem is that Russia doesn't want it to end and many of the warlords down there are wealthy and powerful because of the conflict and don't really want it to end.

It was international news when it kicked off, but these things are soon forgotten when the journalist move on.   You must remember when the separatists used a Russian anti-aircraft system to accidently shoot down that flight from Amsterdam?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

One thing this war has done is make Ukraine a far more nationalist place than before - probably the opposite of what Putin actually wants.  It's also created lots of battle hardened vets who might be very effective at guerrilla warfare, should it come to that.

Anyway, I've greatly simplified the whole thing  - have a google if you want the full picture.

Quote from: Lorddave on January 27, 2022, 08:10:35 AM

Why are they fighting anyway?  And why isn't it international news?  You'd think open warfare would be big.

Basically they are fighting because separatists in the region didn't want to be ruled from Kyiv and were more Russia facing.   Though it all kicked off after Crimea was annexed, Yanukovych was deposed and a Western facing government took power.

Russia poured in troops (though under the guise of being Ukrainian separatists) and arms into the region and the separatists started taking over cities etc.  Obviously the Ukrainian government wasn't impressed and sent it's troops in.  Plenty of militias also headed down there (Ukraine barely had much of a regular army at the time).   It's been a really nasty war, with both sides barely more than gangsters at times.  Rules of war rarely followed and torture commonplace.  Something like 14,000 have died.

It's all pretty low level now with regular peace agreements, then it kicks off again.  Part of the problem is that Russia doesn't want it to end and many of the warlords down there are wealthy and powerful because of the conflict and don't really want it to end.

It was international news when it kicked off, but these things are soon forgotten when the journalist move on.   You must remember when the separatists used a Russian anti-aircraft system to accidently shoot down that flight from Amsterdam?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

One thing this war has done is make Ukraine a far more nationalist place than before - probably the opposite of what Putin actually wants.  It's also created lots of battle hardened vets who might be very effective at guerrilla warfare, should it come to that.

Anyway, I've greatly simplified the whole thing  - have a google if you want the full picture.

Fair enough summary,  I'd add that Russia just doesn't have the resources to fight a prolonged war.  Anything more than a few months would break the Russian Economy more than it already is.  That would be bad news for Putin.   

Considering that the current incursion into eastern Ukraine is not at all decisive even with significant portions of local population supporting the seperatists,  I can't imagine a wider incursion in areas where there is very little support would go at all well let alone be over before Russia goes broke. 

In short,  they can't claim a decisive result in Donbass,  they have bugger all chance of a quick result in Kiev.

 

In that case, do any of you think our dear leaders should figure out a way to let Putin back down and save face at the same time?

Unless putins actions are coordinated with china.
Pulling forces to eruope will allow china to mobilize

In that case, do any of you think our dear leaders should figure out a way to let Putin back down and save face at the same time?

Well these things are always tricky.  We need a leader who is very sharp and even handed, able to out think Putin and stay several steps ahead of him while marshalling our allies to achieve the best possible outcome.

And we've got Joe Biden.  Better than the former guy but hardly reassuring.  Um... we'll see what happens I guess.  The best thing I can say about Biden is that I think he knows how to accept good advice from people more knowledgeable than him.

In that case, do any of you think our dear leaders should figure out a way to let Putin back down and save face at the same time?

I'm sure that's the plan.  However they can't set a precedent of letting Putin dictate NATO policy every time he waves his tanks at Ukraine.

people are saying germany and italy are most affected by russian disrupt due to gas and such.
and since germnay is the richest powerhouse over there then it really should be up to them to frontman the direction and handling.

usa would be just the muscle.

In that case, do any of you think our dear leaders should figure out a way to let Putin back down and save face at the same time?

You’d think this would be the No 1 rule of diplomacy, so I certainly hope so. 

The war pundits will be very disappointed!

Quote from: Space Cowgirl on January 27, 2022, 05:02:00 PM

In that case, do any of you think our dear leaders should figure out a way to let Putin back down and save face at the same time?

You’d think this would be the No 1 rule of diplomacy, so I certainly hope so.

Aaaaaha thats like a tv show where the guy pays the goon to take a dive to show off to the girl.



But i think best bet is that the people see their leader is a crazy pos and they oust him.

Unless the people are with him... then its off to wwiii we go

Quote from: Unconvinced on January 28, 2022, 09:59:53 AM

Quote from: Space Cowgirl on January 27, 2022, 05:02:00 PM

In that case, do any of you think our dear leaders should figure out a way to let Putin back down and save face at the same time?

You’d think this would be the No 1 rule of diplomacy, so I certainly hope so.

Aaaaaha thats like a tv show where the guy pays the goon to take a dive to show off to the girl.



But i think best bet is that the people see their leader is a crazy pos and they oust him.

Unless the people are with him... then its off to wwiii we go

I thought that was standard courting procedure?  Maybe I watch too much TV?

Not sure about the odds of your bet though.  Certainly don’t like the stakes.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-orders-us-troop-deployments-reassure-nato-allies/story

Biden orders US troop deployments to reassure NATO allies amid Russia standoff

Biden told reporters Friday U.S. troops would move "in the near term."

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby announced the imminent arrival of several thousand U.S. troops -- some already in Europe and some from the U.S. -- to NATO allies in eastern Europe at a Pentagon briefing Wednesday -- the first major movement of U.S. forces in response to concerns Russia will invade Ukraine.

Looks like the war is still on. 

They're headed to nato countries adjacent to Ukraine. It is an escalation. Whether this is more likely to cause putin to back down or more likely to cause someone to do something stupid is unclear yet.

They're headed to nato countries adjacent to Ukraine. It is an escalation. Whether this is more likely to cause putin to back down or more likely to cause someone to do something stupid is unclear yet.

Imagine 2 similar situations with one key difference. Situation 1: 100 people are in a big conference room having a heated debate about an issue they all take very seriously. 1 of those people brought a weapon. Situation 2: 100 people are in a big conference room having a heated debate about an issue they all take very seriously. 90 of those people each brought a weapon.

When you imagine those scenarios, is it more likely someone will do something stupid with mortal consequences in the first scenario or the second one? Because we're currently moving away from the analog to Scenario 1 and into the analog for Scenario 2.

I really don't know.  Maybe projecting some kind of strength is a good thing.  Maybe it kicks off a gunfight. 

I will say that my impression of Putin is that he's ruthless but also cold and rational.  I think he's less likely to do something irrational if provoked.

One thing to remember is all these public statements are most often directed at the speakers own country.

Biden is saying things he thinks he wants his voters to hear, Putin is saying things he thinks will keep him in power.

There is always tons of stuff flying back and forth through diplomatic channels.  When politicians speak it's almost always to their own base.