Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #810 on: March 19, 2021, 12:07:39 AM »
You are not very bright at all to inject yourself with a vaccine which has an ARR of 0.7%.

Here is another paper which takes a look at the difference between the RRR and the ARR for covid-19 vaccines:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348691034_Title_What_is_the_efficacy_of_a_Covid-19_vaccine_A_viewpoint

Where are you getting the 0.7% ARR from?

Let us now analyze the raw data from the clinical studies.

"Pfizer’s vaccine “may be more than 90% effective.” (Mahase, BMJ 2020;371:m4347, November 9) Specific data are not given but it is easy enough to approximate the numbers involved, based on the 94 cases in a trial that has enrolled about 40,000 subjects: 8 cases in a vaccine group of 20,000 and 86 cases in a placebo group of 20,000. This yields a Covid-19 attack rate of 0.0004 in the vaccine group and 0.0043 in the placebo group. Relative risk (RR) for vaccination = 0.093, which translates into a “vaccine effectiveness” of 90.7% [100(1-0.093)]. This sounds impressive, but the absolute risk reduction for an individual is only about 0.4% (0.0043-0.0004=0.0039). The Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV) = 256 (1/0.0039), which means that to prevent just 1 Covid-19 case 256 individuals must get the vaccine; the other 255 individuals derive no benefit, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them."

BMJ (Where the above can be found) is kinda like Quora for I guess medical stuff. Cunningham's article you cited above is in response to an original article titled, "Covid-19: Vaccine candidate may be more than 90% effective, interim results indicate".

And like Quora (or even Reddit) all the responses (Cunningham's among them) are really just comments; Someone's personal assessment. They are not peer reviewed official journal stuff. So I would put about as much weight in a BMJ response as would in in a Reddit/Quora response. So yeah, all said and done, bullshit source, and you're not really bright for not realizing this.

Here's the full list of BMJ response comments, (Your's, Cunningham's, included):
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4347/rapid-responses

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sandokhan

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #811 on: March 19, 2021, 01:00:43 AM »
All of you here are trying to downplay the most significant aspect discussed here so far: the ARR of the mRNA vaccines is 0.7%, respectively 1.1%. It is the ARR factor which counts, NOT the RRR percentage.

Here is the peer reviewed paper which establishes these facts of science:


https://www.mdpi.com/1648-9144/57/3/199/htm

Abstract

Relative risk reduction and absolute risk reduction measures in the evaluation of clinical trial data are poorly understood by health professionals and the public. The absence of reported absolute risk reduction in COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials can lead to outcome reporting bias that affects the interpretation of vaccine efficacy. The present article uses clinical epidemiologic tools to critically appraise reports of efficacy in Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccine clinical trials. Based on data reported by the manufacturer for Pfzier/BioNTech vaccine BNT162b2, this critical appraisal shows: relative risk reduction, 95.1%; 95% CI, 90.0% to 97.6%; p = 0.016; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; 95% CI, 0.59% to 0.83%; p < 0.000. For the Moderna vaccine mRNA-1273, the appraisal shows: relative risk reduction, 94.1%; 95% CI, 89.1% to 96.8%; p = 0.004; absolute risk reduction, 1.1%; 95% CI, 0.97% to 1.32%; p < 0.000. Unreported absolute risk reduction measures of 0.7% and 1.1% for the Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, respectively, are very much lower than the reported relative risk reduction measures. Reporting absolute risk reduction measures is essential to prevent outcome reporting bias in evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy.

As was also noted in the BMJ Opinion, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna reported the relative risk reduction of their vaccines, but the manufacturers did not report a corresponding absolute risk reduction, which “appears to be less than 1%”. Absolute risk reduction (ARR) and relative risk reduction (RRR) are measures of treatment efficacy reported in randomized clinical trials. Because the ARR and RRR can be dramatically different in the same trial, it is necessary to include both measures when reporting efficacy outcomes to avoid outcome reporting bias.

Ironically, the omission of absolute risk reduction measures in data reviewed by the VRBPAC overlooks FDA guidelines for communicating evidence-based risks and benefits to the public. The FDA’s advice for information providers includes:

“Provide absolute risks, not just relative risks. Patients are unduly influenced when risk information is presented using a relative risk approach; this can result in suboptimal decisions. Thus, an absolute risk format should be used.”

The New England Journal of Medicine also published clinical trial data on safety and efficacy for the BNT162b2 vaccine and the mRNA-1273 vaccine, but with no mention of absolute risk reduction measures.


Relative Versus Absolute Risk Reduction

So exactly how much risk reduction are the manufacturers crediting their vaccine with?

The reduced risk of COVID-19 infection reported by the manufacturers is approximately 95%, which is an accurate relative risk reduction measure. However, missing from the vaccine reports are absolute risk reduction measures which are much more clinically relevant to the reduced risk of COVID-19 infection. The absolute risk reduction of the vaccines in the present critical appraisal is approximately 1%, indicating practically no clinical efficacy or usefulness of the vaccines to reduce COVID-19 infection.

Essentially, the vaccine is useless and ineffective?

For applied clinical and public health interventions, yes, they appear to be almost completely ineffective. The members of the FDA advisory committee overlooked FDA guidelines to include absolute reduction measures when reporting clinical trial outcomes to the public, leading to outcome reporting bias in the FDA’s authorization of the mRNA vaccines.

Reporting relative risk outcomes, without absolute risk outcomes, has been a huge problem in research for decades. Notice that the ARR numbers are close to zero. The vaccines have almost no effect at all!



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sokarul

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #812 on: March 19, 2021, 01:33:00 AM »
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Heiwa

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #813 on: March 19, 2021, 01:58:34 AM »
I got Covid-19 a year ago, i.e, fever, coughing, head ache, wet nose, pains everywhere, etc. My doctor said I would die unless I got vaxxed but ... there was no vaxx available. Anyway, I survived to report the good news today. May be I got hay fever back in 2020?

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #814 on: March 19, 2021, 01:59:26 AM »
All of you here are trying to downplay the most significant aspect discussed here so far: the ARR of the mRNA vaccines is 0.7%, respectively 1.1%. It is the ARR factor which counts, NOT the RRR percentage.

No, we're not trying to downplay anything. It all counts and everything is inter-related - That's where you have lost the thread.

Reporting relative risk outcomes, without absolute risk outcomes, has been a huge problem in research for decades. Notice that the ARR numbers are close to zero. The vaccines have almost no effect at all!

No, you are vastly misinterpreting the data. And completely missing the point. From your article, at the end, they give a really clear example of why ARR is important and how it directly conjoined with NNV (Number needed to vaccinate). You can't, as you are doing, just look at ARR without NNV. It's not stand-alone. That misses the entire point of what the data is conveying. Read:

Similar to the critical appraisal in the present article, critical appraisals of reported vaccine efficacy in other studies reveals clinically significant insights. For example, a 2018 review of 52 randomized trials for influenza vaccines that studied over 80,000 healthy adults reported an overall influenza vaccine EER of 0.9% and a 2.3% CER, which calculates to a RRR of 60.8% [32]. This vaccine efficacy is consistent with a 40% to 60% reduction in influenza reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [33]. However, critically appraising data from the 2018 review shows an overall ARR of only 1.4%, which reveals vital clinical information that is missing in the CDC report. A 1.4% ARR works out to a NNV of approximately 72 people, meaning that 72 individuals need to be vaccinated to reduce one case of influenza. By comparison, Figure 2 of the present article shows that the NNV for the Pfzier-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are 142 (95% CI 122 to 170) and 88 (95% CI 76 to 104), respectively.

The power in vaccines is not just the efficacy of the drug for one individual. With the fact that you can still get it and transmit it post vax, the power is in getting as many people as possible vaxxed. Your oversight of this point is glaring, myopic, and downright misguided. 

So what your paper is teasing out is that not that the vax's have "almost no effect" like you for some reason desire. It's that it's not super clearly conveyed how important NNV is. It's super easy to market a super high RRR, it gets a lot harder to convey the ARR/NNV relationship/necessity.

But, it has been stated over and over again quite clearly here in the States by Fauci and others, that we need 70% vaxxed to get toward "herd immunity" (aka, high ARR/NNV). Which in super high-level basic everyman consumable and understandable terms kind of speaks to that ARR/NNV relationship without getting into the weeds of it.

Your paper is just saying that aspect (ARR/NNV) should be made much, much clearer and emphasized more. I agree.

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sandokhan

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #815 on: March 19, 2021, 02:29:51 AM »
Both of you are trying to bamboozle your readers.

1. Rising antibody numbers are due to more people infected and developing immunity to covid, it has nothing to do with the vaccines.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2004/12/sars-vaccine-linked-liver-damage-ferret-study

2. I included the NNV figure from the very start.

"Pfizer’s vaccine “may be more than 90% effective.” (Mahase, BMJ 2020;371:m4347, November 9) Specific data are not given but it is easy enough to approximate the numbers involved, based on the 94 cases in a trial that has enrolled about 40,000 subjects: 8 cases in a vaccine group of 20,000 and 86 cases in a placebo group of 20,000. This yields a Covid-19 attack rate of 0.0004 in the vaccine group and 0.0043 in the placebo group. Relative risk (RR) for vaccination = 0.093, which translates into a “vaccine effectiveness” of 90.7% [100(1-0.093)]. This sounds impressive, but the absolute risk reduction for an individual is only about 0.4% (0.0043-0.0004=0.0039). The Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV) = 256 (1/0.0039), which means that to prevent just 1 Covid-19 case 256 individuals must get the vaccine; the other 255 individuals derive no benefit, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them."


It's super easy to market a super high RRR, it gets a lot harder to convey the ARR/NNV relationship/necessity.

What? That's exactly what they did, market the RRR figure, which is irrelevant.

But, it has been stated over and over again quite clearly here in the States by Fauci and others, that we need 70% vaxxed to get toward "herd immunity" (aka, high ARR/NNV).

Please come to your senses.

The ARR for both vaccines is 0.7%, respectively 1.1%. Useless.

Vaccines for what? For the original Wuhan strain? That's long been gone. As early as March 2020, the Wuhan variant was replaced by the D614G strain. Now, everyone is dealing with the N.9, B.1.525, B.1.429, B.1.351 strains, against which the vaccines are useless.

Do you understand what you are doing here? You are telling people to get vaccinated with a vaccine which has an absolute risk reduction of 0.7%. You are telling them to get vaccinated for absolutely nothing at all.

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #816 on: March 19, 2021, 03:03:16 AM »
Both of you are trying to bamboozle your readers.

1. Rising antibody numbers are due to more people infected and developing immunity to covid, it has nothing to do with the vaccines.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2004/12/sars-vaccine-linked-liver-damage-ferret-study

2004 study and has little to do with Covid-19 or it's variants. Why you are drawing some sort of conclusion from that old paper is mystifying. It was early on in trials on Ferrets, not even humans. Not to mention literally nowhere in the article does it even remotely mention anything like "Rising antibody numbers are due to more people infected and developing immunity to covid, it has nothing to do with the vaccines." You completely manufactured that out of thin air. That's super weird, disingenuous, and delusional. Stick to the facts in the articles you cite. Don't make things up for your own pleasure.

2. I included the NNV figure from the very start.

"Pfizer’s vaccine “may be more than 90% effective.” (Mahase, BMJ 2020;371:m4347, November 9) Specific data are not given but it is easy enough to approximate the numbers involved, based on the 94 cases in a trial that has enrolled about 40,000 subjects: 8 cases in a vaccine group of 20,000 and 86 cases in a placebo group of 20,000. This yields a Covid-19 attack rate of 0.0004 in the vaccine group and 0.0043 in the placebo group. Relative risk (RR) for vaccination = 0.093, which translates into a “vaccine effectiveness” of 90.7% [100(1-0.093)]. This sounds impressive, but the absolute risk reduction for an individual is only about 0.4% (0.0043-0.0004=0.0039). The Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV) = 256 (1/0.0039), which means that to prevent just 1 Covid-19 case 256 individuals must get the vaccine; the other 255 individuals derive no benefit, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them."

Again, like I already mentioned before the responses on BMJ are nothing more than "comments" like on Reddit or Quora. And there are plenty of other comments on BMJ that call into question the calculations your commenter makes. Just because his numbers suit your twisted narrative doesn't mean they are correct. Do some actual research and look at all of the relevant BMJ comments. Not just the one you like.

It's super easy to market a super high RRR, it gets a lot harder to convey the ARR/NNV relationship/necessity.

What? That's exactly what they did, market the RRR figure, which is irrelevant.

Why are you playing the halfwit myopic card? RRR isn't irrelevant. It part and parcel with all of the data. All of the data has to be taken in context together to get a clear picture. You keep not doing that and just looking at one data point here and another over there. That's why you're not a scientist. You have no concept of the big picture. It's sad really.

But, it has been stated over and over again quite clearly here in the States by Fauci and others, that we need 70% vaxxed to get toward "herd immunity" (aka, high ARR/NNV).

Please come to your senses.

The ARR for both vaccines is 0.7%, respectively 1.1%. Useless.

Vaccines for what? For the original Wuhan strain? That's long been gone. As early as March 2020, the Wuhan variant was replaced by the D614G strain. Now, everyone is dealing with the N.9, B.1.525, B.1.429, B.1.351 strains, against which the vaccines are useless.

Do you understand what you are doing here? You are telling people to get vaccinated with a vaccine which has an absolute risk reduction of 0.7%. You are telling them to get vaccinated for absolutely nothing at all.

You're deluded by your own inability to understand a semi-complex set of data points. Please stop being a conspiratorially minded hack and come to your senses and act like the scientist you claim to be.

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sandokhan

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #817 on: March 19, 2021, 03:23:08 AM »
Do you understand how despicable you appear to your readers?

You are advocating a 70% mass vaccination.

Here is the raw data from the mRNA trial vaccines:

"Pfizer’s vaccine “may be more than 90% effective.” (Mahase, BMJ 2020;371:m4347, November 9) Specific data are not given but it is easy enough to approximate the numbers involved, based on the 94 cases in a trial that has enrolled about 40,000 subjects: 8 cases in a vaccine group of 20,000 and 86 cases in a placebo group of 20,000. This yields a Covid-19 attack rate of 0.0004 in the vaccine group and 0.0043 in the placebo group. Relative risk (RR) for vaccination = 0.093, which translates into a “vaccine effectiveness” of 90.7% [100(1-0.093)]. This sounds impressive, but the absolute risk reduction for an individual is only about 0.4% (0.0043-0.0004=0.0039). The Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV) = 256 (1/0.0039), which means that to prevent just 1 Covid-19 case 256 individuals must get the vaccine; the other 255 individuals derive no benefit, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them."

These are the numbers obtained from the published studies.

NNTV: 256.

1 individual gets prevention, 255 derive no benefit.

Population of 256,000,000 million.

1,000,000 individuals get prevention, 255,000,000 derive no benefit.

You do not seem to understand what is going on here.

Let us now use the polished data.

NNTV: 142.

1 individual gets prevention, 141 derive no benefit.

Population of 142,000,000 million.

1,000,000 get prevention, 141,000,000 derive no benefit.


Have you then lost your mind to call for a 70% mass vaccination? The clinical studies are very clear: no benefit at all.


2004 study and has little to do with Covid-19 or it's variants.

The vaccine for SARS-COV-1 was given to ferrets. They developed antibodies. Everything seemed to go well. Then, once they were exposed to the real pathogenic agent, disaster struck.

People have been developing antibodies from their natural immune system.


 RRR isn't irrelevant.

It is irrelevant to REAL LIFE SITUATIONS.

Only the ARR counts in real situations.

The figures are very clear: 0.7% for the Pfizer, 1.1% for Moderna.

These are the scientific figures. What you are doing is to display your cognitive dissonance.

Are you denying the figures? You cannot.

Your call for a 70% mass vaccination, when the NNTV is 256, is ludicrous.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2021, 04:25:55 AM by sandokhan »

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Stash

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #818 on: March 19, 2021, 03:29:40 AM »
Do you understand how despicable you appear to your readers?

All has been addressed.

You're deluded by your own inability to understand a semi-complex set of data points. Please stop being a conspiratorially minded hack and come to your senses and act like the scientist you claim to be.

Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #819 on: March 19, 2021, 03:33:57 AM »
Do you understand how despicable you appear to your readers?

All has been addressed.

You're deluded by your own inability to understand a semi-complex set of data points. Please stop being a conspiratorially minded hack and come to your senses and act like the scientist you claim to be.
Sando thinks the universe is 36km across, the sun is 500m above the ground and human history started 250 years ago.  So this seems unlikely.
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sandokhan

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #820 on: March 19, 2021, 03:39:45 AM »
Sando thinks the universe is 36km across, the sun is 500m above the ground and human history started 250 years ago.  So this seems unlikely.

No.

The radius of curvature is 31 km, the figure was derived by none other than Wolfgang Pauli.

The radius of the known surface of the FE is 6,363.63 km.

Sun: 10-12 km above ground, looking straight up.

History: 381 years old.

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sandokhan

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #821 on: March 19, 2021, 03:44:44 AM »
You're deluded by your own inability to understand a semi-complex set of data points.

The data is very clear: ARR 0.7% and 1.1%, respectively. NNTV 256.

1 person gets prevention (for a couple of months only), 255 derive no benefit.

This is the data you have to deal with.

In view of these facts, your call for a 70% mass vaccination is completely unwarranted.

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sandokhan

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #822 on: March 19, 2021, 04:29:37 AM »
With a NNTV of 256 (raw data)/142 (refined data), can this criteria be applied to a "vaccine"? Of course not. A NNTV of 142 means 141 people will not be immune to covid-19 (new variants included).


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Stash

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #823 on: March 19, 2021, 05:12:31 AM »
Sando thinks the universe is 36km across, the sun is 500m above the ground and human history started 250 years ago.  So this seems unlikely.

No.

The radius of curvature is 31 km, the figure was derived by none other than Wolfgang Pauli.

The radius of the known surface of the FE is 6,363.63 km.

Sun: 10-12 km above ground, looking straight up.

History: 381 years old.

Sun: 10-12 km high? Commercial airplanes fly at that altitude and higher. Why don't they burst into flames being so close to the Sun? You've obviously never been on a plane. Explains a lot. History is only 381 years old and readers are supposed to take your delusions, all your half-baked machinations, as rooted in fact? Got it. Carry on.
Queue 4 feet of copy/pasta from the believers forum - A deluded psuedoscience dumpster fire at best. Everyone will look forward to all of your "evidence" puked up here and have a collective giggle. Don't disappoint.

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sandokhan

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #824 on: March 19, 2021, 05:28:14 AM »
Your sudden outburst of anger is understandable.

Your vaccine has a NNTV of 142 (refined data).

1 individual gets prevention, 141 get nothing.

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JJA

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #825 on: March 19, 2021, 06:34:55 AM »
You are not very bright at all to inject yourself with a vaccine which has an ARR of 0.7%.

Not very bright to still not understand simple statistical terms.

You are a moron.  Take your shot, or confine yourself to your moms basement or wherever you live.

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sandokhan

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #826 on: March 19, 2021, 07:11:05 AM »
STFU.

You have received a vaccine with a NNTV of 142 (best case scenario), 256 (worst case scenario). Did you believe what you had read, that the vaccine had a success rate of 95%? You were dumb enough to believe that? That's the RRR factor. What you need is the ARR factor, which is 0.7%.

NNTV of 142: 141 people receive the shots for nothing.

Proof:

"As new COVID cases tumble across North America, sleepy British Columbia has just reported a new outbreak of the virus at a nursing home in the province where both staff members and patients had already been vaccinated.

According to the CBC, a new outbreak of COVID-19 has been declared at the Cottonwoods Care Center, located in the Interior Health region. BC's provincial health officer first acknowledged the outbreak yesterday.

Dr. Henry said two staff members and 10 residents have tested positive at the Cottonwoods facility, which is a long-term care home with 221 publicly-funded beds. Henry said that all staff and residents at the home were offered immunizations and that there was very high uptake of the vaccine. She said some of the cases were among people who had received two doses of the vaccine."


"A Regina nursing home says six people have tested positive for the virus that causes COVID-19

 When Saskatchewan health officials (first) declared an outbreak at the 62-bed Elmview home owned by Extendicare on Tuesday, with two cases reported at the time.

By Thursday, (last week)  Extendicare confirmed the outbreak had grown to six cases: four residents and two workers.

More than 95 per cent of residents received two doses, while 88 per cent of staff received at least one dose and 50 per cent were fully vaccinated, an Extendicare spokesperson said via email.
According to a post on the home's Facebook page, second doses were given out on Feb. 19."



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sokarul

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #827 on: March 19, 2021, 09:27:40 AM »
1234
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JJA

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #828 on: March 19, 2021, 09:29:13 AM »
STFU.

As long as you are going to rant your crazy anti-vax nutjob conspiracy ignorance, I'm going to call you on it.

So you first.  ;D

Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #829 on: March 19, 2021, 09:39:37 AM »
No mask on your face.
You big disgrace.
Spreading corona all over the place.
“Once, every village had an idiot. It took the internet to bring them all together.”

Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #830 on: March 19, 2021, 10:33:54 AM »
Ha, very good.
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if Donald Trump stuck his penis in me after trying on clothes I would have that date and time burned in my head.

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boydster

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #831 on: March 19, 2021, 04:31:59 PM »
Folks. Work with me here. This isn't AR. Let's not act like it is, ok?

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sokarul

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #832 on: March 19, 2021, 04:37:41 PM »
Folks. Work with me here. This isn't AR. Let's not act like it is, ok?
When you start eating people next year will you cook them or eat them raw?
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JJA

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #833 on: March 19, 2021, 04:53:40 PM »
Folks. Work with me here. This isn't AR. Let's not act like it is, ok?

Claiming COVID is alien space dust falling from the sky and misrepresenting simple statistics to try and convince people not to get their shots seems more like CN to me than AR.     

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boydster

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #834 on: March 19, 2021, 06:24:50 PM »
You're engaging in discussion on a website where the very name implies you are likely to encounter some conspiracy theories. I asked nicely. Play nice.

Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #835 on: March 20, 2021, 11:57:40 AM »
Folks. Work with me here. This isn't AR. Let's not act like it is, ok?
Sando is always ranting angrily. 
Quote from: mikeman7918
a single photon can pass through two sluts

Quote from: Chicken Fried Clucker
if Donald Trump stuck his penis in me after trying on clothes I would have that date and time burned in my head.

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sokarul

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #836 on: March 24, 2021, 04:52:24 PM »
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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #837 on: April 13, 2021, 05:00:56 PM »
Do you understand how despicable you appear to your readers?

You are advocating a 70% mass vaccination.

Here is the raw data from the mRNA trial vaccines:

"Pfizer’s vaccine “may be more than 90% effective.” (Mahase, BMJ 2020;371:m4347, November 9) Specific data are not given but it is easy enough to approximate the numbers involved, based on the 94 cases in a trial that has enrolled about 40,000 subjects: 8 cases in a vaccine group of 20,000 and 86 cases in a placebo group of 20,000. This yields a Covid-19 attack rate of 0.0004 in the vaccine group and 0.0043 in the placebo group. Relative risk (RR) for vaccination = 0.093, which translates into a “vaccine effectiveness” of 90.7% [100(1-0.093)]. This sounds impressive, but the absolute risk reduction for an individual is only about 0.4% (0.0043-0.0004=0.0039). The Number Needed To Vaccinate (NNTV) = 256 (1/0.0039), which means that to prevent just 1 Covid-19 case 256 individuals must get the vaccine; the other 255 individuals derive no benefit, but are subject to vaccine adverse effects, whatever they may be and whenever we learn about them."

These are the numbers obtained from the published studies.

NNTV: 256.

1 individual gets prevention, 255 derive no benefit.

Population of 256,000,000 million.

1,000,000 individuals get prevention, 255,000,000 derive no benefit.

You do not seem to understand what is going on here.

Let us now use the polished data.

NNTV: 142.

1 individual gets prevention, 141 derive no benefit.

Population of 142,000,000 million.

1,000,000 get prevention, 141,000,000 derive no benefit.


Have you then lost your mind to call for a 70% mass vaccination? The clinical studies are very clear: no benefit at all.


2004 study and has little to do with Covid-19 or it's variants.

The vaccine for SARS-COV-1 was given to ferrets. They developed antibodies. Everything seemed to go well. Then, once they were exposed to the real pathogenic agent, disaster struck.

People have been developing antibodies from their natural immune system.


 RRR isn't irrelevant.

It is irrelevant to REAL LIFE SITUATIONS.

Only the ARR counts in real situations.

The figures are very clear: 0.7% for the Pfizer, 1.1% for Moderna.

These are the scientific figures. What you are doing is to display your cognitive dissonance.

Are you denying the figures? You cannot.

Your call for a 70% mass vaccination, when the NNTV is 256, is ludicrous.

This is the most embarrassing misuse of statistics I have seen this month lol
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It is not a scientific fact, it is a scientific fuck!
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Read a bit psicology and stick your imo to where it comes from
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Pezevenk

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #838 on: April 13, 2021, 05:40:26 PM »
To sandokhan:

Pro tip: try to sanity check your results by working "backwards". In this case, assume a really effective vaccine, and work out what you would expect to see in an experiment like that. Assume that 9 out of 10 people who get exposed to the virus don't get sick if they have been vaccinated, but all the people who do get exposed and aren't vaccinated do get sick. Now assume a test group of 10,000 and a control group of again 10,000, and that during the few weeks of the tests, 1% of people get exposed in each group. That means 100 sick people in the control group, 10 in the other one. According to your brilliant methodology, the benefit turns out to be 0.9%. Except the assumption was that 90% of people who take it are immune.

According to what you tried to do there, you need to vaccinate 1000/9=about 111 people to prevent one case. Except this is clearly nonsensical. If you try the same calculation but with 10% of the people getting exposed this time, this only becomes around 11 people to vaccinate. Do it for everyone being exposed and now it is only about 1. Your figure changes according to how many people are exposed to the virus, so obviously it is silly and worthless. Not to mention that vaccinating, say, 40% of people with a 90% effective vaccine only leaves 64% of people to work with, which makes its spread slower, contributing to even fewer deaths.

All this analysis shouldn't have been required tbh, it should have been obvious from the fact that the figures you posted show that the vaccinated people who got sick are only a fraction of the control group, which you can simply extrapolate to the total number of covid cases and easily see how many cases and how many deaths would have been prevented.

Weren't you supposed to have written the bestest math book evar?

Edit: damn I just noticed this is an old thread...
Member of the BOTD for Anti Fascism and Racism

It is not a scientific fact, it is a scientific fuck!
-Intikam

Read a bit psicology and stick your imo to where it comes from
-Intikam (again)

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sandokhan

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Re: Is COVID-19 Caused by a Virus or a Mycobacterium?
« Reply #839 on: April 13, 2021, 11:35:57 PM »
Did you consume ouzo before you came up with this piece?

https://www.mdpi.com/1648-9144/57/3/199/htm

This is a peer-reviewed article which uses the accepted definitions for RRR and ARR based on the clinical studies published by the mRNA vaccines manufacturers.

What is the RRR of your example? The ARR? Without these figures, your "analysis" cannot be used for scientific studies.