nCoV public service announcement. (IMPORTANT)

https://healthweather.us

Hope your doing OK Space Cowgirl.... Florida looks sickly on this map

Yeah, the spring break retarts are down here spreading their germs, plus there's always a lot of travel between NY and Miami so that's why south Florida is bad.

I read in the paper this morning that a second congressman has tested positive. I think it was a senator but I can't remember.

Oh don't worry, they won't test enough so you won't see 90k cases that soon.

This is true.

Italy has now passed China on coronavirus deaths.  Italy has a population of 60 million.  China has 20 times as much.

Either China has done spectacularly well controlling this or Italy has completely fucked up.

China is a huge country, with a more spread out population outside the cities. They trapped people in their villages with roadblocks. Maybe that helped them get control of it faster, plus they are communist and the people do what they're told.  I imagine Florida will be like Italy. We'll let it destroy us before closing down tourism.

Here is the best/most recent guideline for corona treatement and prevention from the chinese doctors:
https://video-intl.alicdn.com/Handbook%20of%20COVID-19%20Prevention%20and%20Treatment.pdf

I think my country is far away from this, especially in prevention.

Italy has now passed China on coronavirus deaths.  Italy has a population of 60 million.  China has 20 times as much.

Either China has done spectacularly well controlling this or Italy has completely fucked up.

Demographics and habits probably play a large part.  You have the second oldest population on the planet where old people actually mix with younger people  - families often have grandparents in the house.  In commuter towns and rural ares the younger ones commute to Milan, probably infecting themselves, then bring home to grandpapa and grandmama.   A recipe for disaster with this virus.

We have an old population in the UK, but fortunately we shovel them all into care homes.  Which is of course for their own good, rather than to free up the spare bedroom. 

So looking at the logarithmic scale for the USA, it shows that the USA is multiplying its case amount by 10x every 7-8 or so days. I wonder if this is going to keep going for another week, because if it does there will be about 90 000 cases by next week. Adding about 22 000 people on just that day.


This is what a simple projection looks like for this month at the current (average) growth rate.





Or if you prefer graphs





This is not a prediction, this is just extrapolation.


So lets see where we are by the month end.
I think we should see a slow down before the end of the month, but 10x more cases by end of next week is reasonable.

Interesting factoid to go along with this. There are, apparently, tons of tests in backlog that are supposed to be checked in the coming days, so in a 48 hour period we could see a dramatic increase in confirmed cases. It'll hopefully be a very short-lived acceleration while they work through the backlog, but it's going to impact our number of confirmed cases significantly.

We've completely botched the testing.  When we finally get it together I'm sure there'll be a big uptick in cases. 

At the same time we've only recently started to take this seriously.  So we're about to get some very weird data.

The hospital nearby has set up tents. I can't imagine being sick in Florida and have to stay in a tent. It's already nearly 90 degrees every afternoon.

Twitter is all atwitter about Senator Richard Burr pretending to be unconcerned about coronavirus back in February while quietly selling off $1.6 million in stock.

I should have linked the article, here it is https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness

Just did a shopping run and got the last of the couscous.

We need to release our strategic couscous reserves!

You will have to learn to grow your own couscous!

Supermarkets around here are starting to replenish stocks,  a few days ago there was no eggs, meat, potatoes,  long life milk and pasta were all gone.   Last time I looked most of those were back in stock, but they were applying limits on how many you could buy. 

Sadly the couscous situation remains dire and no hope for this season's couscous crop.

Twitter is all atwitter about Senator Richard Burr pretending to be unconcerned about coronavirus back in February while quietly selling off $1.6 million in stock.

I should have linked the article, here it is https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness

AOC is on the case..   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/aoc-calls-senate-intel-chair-richard-burr-resign-stock-selloff-n1164401

Quote from: Space Cowgirl on March 19, 2020, 05:43:34 PM

Twitter is all atwitter about Senator Richard Burr pretending to be unconcerned about coronavirus back in February while quietly selling off $1.6 million in stock.

I should have linked the article, here it is https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness

AOC is on the case..   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/aoc-calls-senate-intel-chair-richard-burr-resign-stock-selloff-n1164401

It's beyond unethical.  This is probably very illegal.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOCK_Act.

Sadly with everything going on this is probably going to slide.

We have a veggie garden that can keep us having greens nearly indefinitely.
Did not think much of it until yesterday, but turns out I have been planning this for years.

That's a good thing to have in an apocalypse.  I don't have that personally I've always wondered why the strong taboo against cannibalism?

So we both have our ways to survive in the new world.  We'll let the historians decide which way is more ethical.

That's a good thing to have in an apocalypse.  I don't have that personally I've always wondered why the strong taboo against cannibalism?

So we both have our ways to survive in the new world.  We'll let the historians decide which way is more ethical.

Well, cannibalism does have another disadvantage that you catch a bad case of prions disease, and who knows what else.
I think one of us will be part of history before the other

Quote from: JerkFace on March 19, 2020, 09:24:08 PM

Quote from: Space Cowgirl on March 19, 2020, 05:43:34 PM

Twitter is all atwitter about Senator Richard Burr pretending to be unconcerned about coronavirus back in February while quietly selling off $1.6 million in stock.

I should have linked the article, here it is https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness

AOC is on the case..   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/aoc-calls-senate-intel-chair-richard-burr-resign-stock-selloff-n1164401

It's beyond unethical.  This is probably very illegal.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOCK_Act.

Sadly with everything going on this is probably going to slide.

Probably for now.  But when the pandemic comes to an end and the economy is in tatters then there may well be mobs with pitchforks out there.

RIP 36 year old Aussie in Iceland from this virus.

Even the young don't necessarily survive it

Finns aren't being as obedient as they are supposed to be, lots are still going on ski holidays which means gathering in groups larger than 10 and thousands went to the opening on a new shopping centre. Idiots. My local facebook group is full of people moaning about old people being out and about.

Mum is getting better but now dad has a fever. She said she didn't really have a cough though so hopefully its not it.

Finns aren't being as obedient as they are supposed to be, lots are still going on ski holidays which means gathering in groups larger than 10 and thousands went to the opening on a new shopping centre. Idiots. My local facebook group is full of people moaning about old people being out and about.

Mum is getting better but now dad has a fever. She said she didn't really have a cough though so hopefully its not it.

That is really good news. Hopefully it was just a normal sickness! She probably would have been much sicker if it was coronavirus.

Quote from: Colonel Gaydafi on March 20, 2020, 04:51:43 AM

Finns aren't being as obedient as they are supposed to be, lots are still going on ski holidays which means gathering in groups larger than 10 and thousands went to the opening on a new shopping centre. Idiots. My local facebook group is full of people moaning about old people being out and about.

Mum is getting better but now dad has a fever. She said she didn't really have a cough though so hopefully its not it.

That is really good news. Hopefully it was just a normal sickness! She probably would have been much sicker if it was coronavirus.

Not necessarily.   Even older people can just end up with mild symptoms.  If she didn't have a cough it seems unlikely though.

Finns aren't being as obedient as they are supposed to be, lots are still going on ski holidays which means gathering in groups larger than 10 and thousands went to the opening on a new shopping centre. Idiots. My local facebook group is full of people moaning about old people being out and about.

Mum is getting better but now dad has a fever. She said she didn't really have a cough though so hopefully its not it.

You should kinda hope it was sars coronavirus 2 because then she'd most likely be immune now.

Quote from: Crouton on March 20, 2020, 12:49:26 AM

That's a good thing to have in an apocalypse.  I don't have that personally I've always wondered why the strong taboo against cannibalism?

So we both have our ways to survive in the new world.  We'll let the historians decide which way is more ethical.

Well, cannibalism does have another disadvantage that you catch a bad case of prions disease, and who knows what else.
I think one of us will be part of history before the other

See that's where you're wrong.  I've stocked up on Alex Jones' anticoronavirus toothpaste which I'm confident is equally effective at fighting off prions disease.

This is not a doctored image.

The low level racism and divisiveness of this aren't really what bothers me about this.  It's that during a serious crisis he refuses to stop doing this sort of "i have the biggest inauguration crowd" type nonsense.  These news conferences he gives are terrible.  He has to talk for some reason.  And he's just wrong about most of the things he says.  Then there's his experts but I can't entirely trust them either because he's probably threaten to fire any expert that disagrees with him.

The highest authority that's trustworthy in this country is probably the state government now.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/20/sen-richard-burr-requests-ethics-probe-into-his-stock-sales-138768

Oh okay.  I feel much better now.  Burr has asked the republican controlled senate to see if what he did was wrong.  I'm sure they'll do the right thing.

Richard Burr: Probe me, pls!

https://www.caracalreports.com/four-senators-sell-stocks-before-market-crashes-after-private-coronavirus-briefing/

Senator Kelly Loeffler looks incredibly guilty of insider trading, too. Inhofe and Feinstein not as much.