Maybe it's time to give Trump and his admin credit?

Quote from: Bom Tishop on January 22, 2020, 12:30:17 AM

Quote from: Lorddave on January 22, 2020, 12:13:11 AM

I remember when Obama touted more jobs after the recession.  But it was mostly part time jobs.

Yeah, that is why I said underemployment is down as well.

I mean, its good for jobs but is that from the tax break you got from Trump or because his trade war is forcing people to buy American?

Between those two options....

The trade war has cost me and I have seen no gains from the tax reform

Trump has used the trade war as a bargain chip

Say you implement a tariff of 20% on products. Now you have things to bring to the table in future discussions and not just on trade

So he can make a deal and say he will reduce the tariff to 10%. And he's still 'ahead' because previously there was no tariff at all.

I think it's what he did with Taiwan too, recognizing them as sovereign. Would obviously piss China off. Later he can negotiate with China and say he will recognise Taiwan as a part of China. That's been the case for decades so America hasn't 'lost' anything' by 'conceding' should he choose to. America didn't have much on the table before to make a deal or negotiate. By doing all this, there are now many things on the table and puts America in a position where it can call the shots

Now that an election is coming up (as well as the sham impeachment trial) he will promote how great he is by reducing the tariffs, lightening the trade war, restoring confidence, plugging the stock market and economy all the while pretending he's the deal maker and pulling China into line at the same time.

Quote from: Lorddave on January 22, 2020, 01:30:56 AM

Quote from: Bom Tishop on January 22, 2020, 12:30:17 AM

Quote from: Lorddave on January 22, 2020, 12:13:11 AM

I remember when Obama touted more jobs after the recession.  But it was mostly part time jobs.

Yeah, that is why I said underemployment is down as well.

I mean, its good for jobs but is that from the tax break you got from Trump or because his trade war is forcing people to buy American?

Between those two options....

The trade war has cost me and I have seen no gains from the tax reform

Then why are you doing well?  What changed?

Quote from: Bom Tishop on January 22, 2020, 02:11:02 AM

Quote from: Lorddave on January 22, 2020, 01:30:56 AM

Quote from: Bom Tishop on January 22, 2020, 12:30:17 AM

Quote from: Lorddave on January 22, 2020, 12:13:11 AM

I remember when Obama touted more jobs after the recession.  But it was mostly part time jobs.

Yeah, that is why I said underemployment is down as well.

I mean, its good for jobs but is that from the tax break you got from Trump or because his trade war is forcing people to buy American?

Between those two options....

The trade war has cost me and I have seen no gains from the tax reform

Then why are you doing well?  What changed?

To be honest, I don't know.

Maybe a placebo effect? Businesses think he is good for business and will help, then they start to subconsciously do better?

The placebo effect is certainly a real phenomenon...

Quote from: Lorddave on January 22, 2020, 03:32:00 AM

Quote from: Bom Tishop on January 22, 2020, 02:11:02 AM

Quote from: Lorddave on January 22, 2020, 01:30:56 AM

Quote from: Bom Tishop on January 22, 2020, 12:30:17 AM

Quote from: Lorddave on January 22, 2020, 12:13:11 AM

I remember when Obama touted more jobs after the recession.  But it was mostly part time jobs.

Yeah, that is why I said underemployment is down as well.

I mean, its good for jobs but is that from the tax break you got from Trump or because his trade war is forcing people to buy American?

Between those two options....

The trade war has cost me and I have seen no gains from the tax reform

Then why are you doing well?  What changed?

To be honest, I don't know.

Maybe a placebo effect? Businesses think he is good for business and will help, then they start to subconsciously do better?

The placebo effect is certainly a real phenomenon...

So, logically, he hasn't done anything to help Americans except make businesses think he's good for business.

I think BHS is right about the placebo effect. It's called confidence. When consumer confidence is high we buy more shit, which causes businesses to do better. I didn't know that businesses could experience this type of confidence, but I suppose businesses are also consumers so it could work on them too. Like if a business is confident that they are going to do well, they buy more resources.

Quote from: DuckDodgers on January 21, 2020, 10:00:03 AM

To summarize, Trump is responsible for this economy, but whether the economy as it stands now is a measurable increase for the majority is questionable. Trump is also responsible for the governments inability to address future economic downturns.

This is a great paragraph here, fantastic summary.

I definitely see your point on possible downturns and minimizing the options available to fight, ease or shorten these. It reminds me of a company doing monster revenue on very tight margins. Everything is great until you hit a snag, the whole house can come down with little options available to fight it.


As for the part about the booming economy effecting the average person...I think it has. It certainly has effected unemployment and underemployment according to the numbers.

I think in certain businesses it has had an effect as well. I have hired more staff, given raises to key people that have over performed and have critical value to me as well as just purchased another building for another location. Many other people in my circle has expanded in various ways as well, which equalled more jobs, more pay or both.

Perhaps the solid economy is not trickling down in the big corporate world because there are countless bean counters who's only job is to make margins bigger and over head as small as possible. Then you have all the people up top that only focus on profit and nothing else...that is actually their legal responsibility to the share holders (as most large corps are publicly traded)... Maybe that entire system is flawed for that reason. This is also why I support (some) regulations going against what scg said.

So I think in many businesses the average worker is seeing a difference, just maybe not in large publicly traded corps.


Also, one thing not to forget...more jobs, even if they aren't of higher wages at first, could be down the line. The best position for a worker is to have more jobs openings than workers...that's makes them more valuable, therefore worth more per hour, even on low wage positions.

Perhaps the economy is trickling down to the average worker in small business, but I know for a fact it isn't in corporate America. My fiance works for one of the major hotel chains, and at a luxury hotel of theirs at that. This particular chain has raked in record breaking profits, and her hotel has been fully booked for all but the first few months after it opened. Her office received a 1% raise last year, and no news on a raise this year. This hotel is also seriously understaffing her department, forcing the employees to pull 50 to 60 hour workweeks for half the month to get the job done.

This might be an isolated case, but I'm not certain it is. It's hard to reconcile 2-5% raised being any sort of measurable comparison to the profit increases we have seen recently for corporations.

You also have to factor in the fact that healthcare is increasing in cost at an alarming rate and housing prices are ballooning again making buying a home unaffordable for most even considering a wage increase.

I think BHS is right about the placebo effect. It's called confidence. When consumer confidence is high we buy more shit, which causes businesses to do better. I didn't know that businesses could experience this type of confidence, but I suppose businesses are also consumers so it could work on them too. Like if a business is confident that they are going to do well, they buy more resources.

Which in turn makes other businesses buy more as their profits increase.


Basically, an economy works only because people think it does.

Trump's not causing the boost, neither is it primarily because of confidence. The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession. These things go in cycles and you don't affect the cycle much unless you really do something special.

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Greece still is perhaps. Greece's idea to stimulate growth and the economy was major austerity measures.   

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Yes it is lol. It's literally what growth is being referred to as by economists. The economy is nowhere close to where it "should" have been without the recession. Economic downturns are followed by booms. It happens all the time.

Quote from: Bullwinkle on January 22, 2020, 11:24:18 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Greece still is perhaps. Greece's idea to stimulate growth and the economy was major austerity measures.   

Wasn't Greece's idea.

Quote from: Shifter on January 22, 2020, 11:29:59 PM

Quote from: Bullwinkle on January 22, 2020, 11:24:18 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Greece still is perhaps. Greece's idea to stimulate growth and the economy was major austerity measures.   

Wasn't Greece's idea.

No shit, Greece still has checks left.

Quote from: Bullwinkle on January 22, 2020, 11:24:18 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Yes it is lol. It's literally what growth is being referred to as by economists. The economy is nowhere close to where it "should" have been without the recession. Economic downturns are followed by booms. It happens all the time.

What doesn't happen is 10 consecutive years of boom with no bust. There are usually expansions, followed by contractions, with a general upward trend where expansions are bigger than contractions.

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 23, 2020, 01:04:52 AM

Quote from: Bullwinkle on January 22, 2020, 11:24:18 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Yes it is lol. It's literally what growth is being referred to as by economists. The economy is nowhere close to where it "should" have been without the recession. Economic downturns are followed by booms. It happens all the time.

What doesn't happen is 10 consecutive years of boom with no bust. There are usually expansions, followed by contractions, with a general upward trend where expansions are bigger than contractions.

Expansion slowed in 2016 and it's slowing again now globally.

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Yeah, we aren't pez.

Quote from: Bullwinkle on January 22, 2020, 11:24:18 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Yeah, we aren't pez.

By We do you mean America or other countries that aren't America?

https://twitter.com/Tsoukalos/status/1220401047396446209?s=20

Planned obsolescence must become illegal. Wanna regulate something? Regulate planned obsolescence. It's a racket and that's that.

Ancient Aliens guy wants MORE REGULATIONS.

Quote from: Bom Tishop on January 23, 2020, 09:09:32 AM

Quote from: Bullwinkle on January 22, 2020, 11:24:18 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Yeah, we aren't pez.

By We do you mean America or other countries that aren't America?

He means he doesn't understand what a recovery from a recession is. Real GDP is still not at pre-recession levels.

Quote from: Lorddave on January 23, 2020, 09:59:23 AM

Quote from: Bom Tishop on January 23, 2020, 09:09:32 AM

Quote from: Bullwinkle on January 22, 2020, 11:24:18 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Yeah, we aren't pez.

By We do you mean America or other countries that aren't America?

He means he doesn't understand what a recovery from a recession is. Real GDP is still not at pre-recession levels.

Pre GFC there was a lot if dodgy dealings and lax lending laws. The GDP probably had an artificial component to it.

Now it might be lower but it's 'corrected'. It shouldn't be considered a failure because it's not at 'pre GFC' levels.

China will run into a lot of problems when they can no longer build ghost cities though. And all countries (including Australia) will feel the hit when China stops buying our stuff to do so

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 23, 2020, 10:13:48 AM

Quote from: Lorddave on January 23, 2020, 09:59:23 AM

Quote from: Bom Tishop on January 23, 2020, 09:09:32 AM

Quote from: Bullwinkle on January 22, 2020, 11:24:18 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on January 22, 2020, 11:00:31 PM

The world is still recovering from the 2008 recession.

No we're not.

Yeah, we aren't pez.

By We do you mean America or other countries that aren't America?

He means he doesn't understand what a recovery from a recession is. Real GDP is still not at pre-recession levels.

Pre GFC there was a lot if dodgy dealings and lax lending laws. The GDP probably had an artificial component to it.

Now it might be lower but it's 'corrected'. It shouldn't be considered a failure because it's not at 'pre GFC' levels.

China will run into a lot of problems when they can no longer build ghost cities though. And all countries (including Australia) will feel the hit when China stops buying our stuff to do so

"Corrected" according to what? Who decides what the "correct" level of growth is?

It's not a question of whether or not it is a failure, it's just that growth can be attributed to being on the "boom" part of the cycle and crawling back up to where things were before. It's not like there aren't dodgy dealings now. Plus productive capabilities have increased relative to 12 years ago, there probably is some more room to grow before it crashes again. Last year forecasts were showing a very high chance of a new recession, looks like the economy escaped that for now. But there seems to be an overall decrease in manufacturing profits or even a mini manufacturing recession in many developed economies, and growth rates are slowing.