Poll

When will we travel beyond low Earth orbit? How many years away is it?

2 to 5 years
7 (63.6%)
5 to 10 years
2 (18.2%)
10+ years
1 (9.1%)
Never
1 (9.1%)

Total Members Voted: 11

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OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?

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FlatOrange

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OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« on: October 15, 2019, 03:01:25 PM »
NASA says they want to return to the moon by 2024. SpaceX wants to fly around the moon in 2023.

Are we really within 5 years of this monumental achievement?
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The Real Celine Dion

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2019, 03:24:32 PM »
Quote from: FlatOrange on October 15, 2019, 03:01:25 PM
NASA says they want to return to the moon by 2024. SpaceX wants to fly around the moon in 2023.

Are we really within 5 years of this monumental achievement?

I think private space travel companies will do it before NASA. Maybe within 5 years.
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mak3m

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2019, 03:28:27 PM »
Sadly commercialism is the future of space exploration and travel.

Lots of resources out there to exploit
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Quote from: sandokhan on December 04, 2019, 06:12:29 AM
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FlatOrange

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2019, 05:43:38 PM »
Quote from: mak3m on October 15, 2019, 03:28:27 PM
Sadly commercialism is the future of space exploration and travel.

What's sad about that?

Quote from: mak3m
Lots of resources out there to exploit

What's wrong with exploitation of resources off our home planet?
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MaNaeSWolf

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2019, 10:57:26 PM »
Exploiting resources off our planet sound wonderful. We can finally stop ripping earth apart for materials. This is the stated goal of Jeff Bezos and why he spends a lot of money on Blue Origin.

Space is a very sterile environment, not many indigenous tribes need to be displaced to gain access to resources.
There is really no loss to anyone or anything. (unless sterile rocks are sentient)

Quote from: mak3m on October 15, 2019, 03:28:27 PM
Sadly commercialism is the future of space exploration and travel.

Commercializing space is the only way that it would ever become accessible.

Take for example, NASA is building the SLS (Space Launch System)
For about $2 billion a year it can launch 1 rocket with 150mT to orbit starting hopefully in 2021

SpaceX, is building their Super Heavy launcher with zero Gov money, and should launch about 150-100mT to orbit for about $60million a launch re-usable.
Its possible (but not certain) that SpaceX may start flying before the SLS even though it started real development 5 years later.

You want commercialization.

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rvlvr

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2019, 01:12:32 AM »
Aren't the Chinese supposed to fly to the Moon soon, too?

Interested to hear our anti-NASA department's view on the Chinese space program what with the rockets not working in vacuum and all.
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Masalang the Torpedo

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2019, 02:12:22 AM »
America doesn't even have the rockets anymore to carry such a load to the moon and back. And Anti Science Trump is hardly going to give NASA the $$$ to pull it off. So no. It's not going to happen. Trump sees a few votes in talking about the possibility. Every President has. That's why they talk about it. No President wants to fund it though. They much rather spend 600 billion every year on 'defence'.
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MaNaeSWolf

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2019, 02:38:10 AM »
Quote from: Shifter on October 16, 2019, 02:12:22 AM
America doesn't even have the rockets anymore to carry such a load to the moon and back. And Anti Science Trump is hardly going to give NASA the $$$ to pull it off. So no. It's not going to happen. Trump sees a few votes in talking about the possibility. Every President has. That's why they talk about it. No President wants to fund it though. They much rather spend 600 billion every year on 'defence'.

Actually the USA is already fully funding an overpriced rocket that can take people to the moon.
Should be ready by 2021. (the rocket, not the other stuff to go to the moon)
Google SLS (Space Launch System)
It costs USA about $2 billion a year to develop, which works out to about 12 hours worth of the military budget.

Cheaper and more capable rockets could come even sooner.
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MaNaeSWolf

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2019, 02:42:41 AM »
Quote from: rvlvr on October 16, 2019, 01:12:32 AM
Aren't the Chinese supposed to fly to the Moon soon, too?

Interested to hear our anti-NASA department's view on the Chinese space program what with the rockets not working in vacuum and all.
Soon is relative, but it is a goal of theirs. They dont have a legacy space program to work with, so they have to start from scratch.
But they are learning fast.
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rvlvr

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2019, 02:56:57 AM »
Somewhat recent news related to NASA and China’s goals:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-moon-trump/trump-seeks-extra-1-6-billion-in-nasa-spending-to-return-to-moon-by-2024-idUSKCN1SJ2FG?il=0

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/07/science/trump-moon-nasa.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02020-w

So yeah, not sure what Trump wants, and no idea what the quite likely second term will bring, but the wheels are in motion. Be it Moon or Mars, NASA will be launching people up there.

EDIT: No idea which way this publication is leaning, but they seem quite critical of Obama’s actions regarding the space program:

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/technology/322918-how-barack-obama-ruined-nasa-space-exploration
« Last Edit: October 16, 2019, 02:59:35 AM by rvlvr »
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mak3m

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2019, 03:09:56 AM »
Quote from: FlatOrange on October 15, 2019, 05:43:38 PM
Quote from: mak3m on October 15, 2019, 03:28:27 PM
Sadly commercialism is the future of space exploration and travel.

What's sad about that?

Quote from: mak3m
Lots of resources out there to exploit

What's wrong with exploitation of resources off our home planet?

Late night (UK) post overly pessimistic  ;D exporting capitalism to the universe etc.

If it gets it done go for it  :)

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Quote from: sandokhan on December 04, 2019, 06:12:29 AM
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MaNaeSWolf

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2019, 03:34:08 AM »
Quote from: rvlvr on October 16, 2019, 02:56:57 AM
Somewhat recent news related to NASA and China’s goals:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-moon-trump/trump-seeks-extra-1-6-billion-in-nasa-spending-to-return-to-moon-by-2024-idUSKCN1SJ2FG?il=0

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/07/science/trump-moon-nasa.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02020-w

So yeah, not sure what Trump wants, and no idea what the quite likely second term will bring, but the wheels are in motion. Be it Moon or Mars, NASA will be launching people up there.

EDIT: No idea which way this publication is leaning, but they seem quite critical of Obama’s actions regarding the space program:

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/technology/322918-how-barack-obama-ruined-nasa-space-exploration

I am not an american and think Trump is a dump.

However Obama's terms did mess things up for NASA, what he did do well was to create an environment where private companies (such as SpaceX and Blue Origin) could exist. - this was very good

Here is the problem NASA/US Congress has created for itself.

They spent $2 billion a year on a rocket for deep space stuff.
The rocket was popular in congress because it keeps a lot of factories and jobs going.
However, now these private space companies are coming along with much cheaper rockets that can essentially do the same thing. Making the SLS obsolete the day it launches.
There was no way NASA could predict this would happen when they started the SLS, but the speed at which they progressed made it almost inevitable.

Now NASA is too deep in with the SLS to cancel, and has to keep spending the cash to get the rocket to launch (possibly 2021)
Trump wants to go to the moon in his 2nd term (may or may not happen)
The real problem is, if he does not get re-elected, the next president will not necessarily care about the moon and may change course for NASA again.

Here is the bottom line.
SLS will definitely launch at least 4 times (already paid for contracts)
NASA is planning on at least 12 beyond earth orbit launches from a human rated capsule (that may or may not launch from the SLS)
SpaceX and Blue origin are racing past NASA with their ambitious rockets ready to launch from as early as 2020 (with a fraction of the cost)
China is wants to join the space race and is not sitting back either.

People are going beyond the space station sooner than people realize.
I predict boots on Mars before 2030

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markjo

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Re: OFFICIAL 2019 POLL: When will we travel beyond ISS?
« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2019, 08:21:32 AM »
Quote from: Shifter on October 16, 2019, 02:12:22 AM
America doesn't even have the rockets anymore to carry such a load to the moon and back.
I suppose that depends on how heavy a load you're talking about.  There are several heavy/super heavy lift boosters on the horizon like SLS, New Glenn and Vulcan-Centaur, but Falcon Heavy has already flown and could be a viable option.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/10/as-nasa-tries-to-land-on-the-moon-it-has-plenty-of-rockets-to-choose-from/
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