Sun and moon size and probability

I came upon this statement from Earthsky web site:

"So what are the odds of the moon and sun appearing nearly the same size from Earth? No one knows." - a professor from Yale

Does this "noone knows" conform to the normal way of calculating probabilities? As in, do they really not know the probability/odds, or do they just not want to comment?

I came upon this statement from Earthsky web site:

"So what are the odds of the moon and sun appearing nearly the same size from Earth? No one knows." - a professor from Yale

Does this "noone knows" conform to the normal way of calculating probabilities? As in, do they really not know the probability/odds, or do they just not want to comment?

There isn't a large enough pool of examples to accurately calculate the odds.

How do you calculate odds from one sample?

I came upon this statement from Earthsky web site:

"So what are the odds of the moon and sun appearing nearly the same size from Earth? No one knows." - a professor from Yale

Does this "noone knows" conform to the normal way of calculating probabilities? As in, do they really not know the probability/odds, or do they just not want to comment?

I think he does not want to say it. frankly, this is a possibility that can be considered as infinite. this renders the term science meaningless.

I came upon this statement from Earthsky web site:

"So what are the odds of the moon and sun appearing nearly the same size from Earth? No one knows." - a professor from Yale

Does this "noone knows" conform to the normal way of calculating probabilities? As in, do they really not know the probability/odds, or do they just not want to comment?

There is a simple reason for this "round earth reason " that is.
I came across one source that said the odds were 1 in 23.

I came upon this statement from Earthsky web site:

"So what are the odds of the moon and sun appearing nearly the same size from Earth? No one knows." - a professor from Yale

Does this "noone knows" conform to the normal way of calculating probabilities? As in, do they really not know the probability/odds, or do they just not want to comment?

To human eyes and minds that are easily fooled and not made to judge such things? Quite high odds.

They are not the same size, just close.

You also have to factor in all the other solar systems in the universe, then it is not that impossible for some solar systems.

From the Earth:
angular diameter of the Sun varies from 31'27" to 32'32" (0.5242 to 0.5422 degrees)
angula diameter of the Moon varies from 29'20" to 34'6" (0.4889 to 0.5683 degrees)
(from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angular_diameter)

If the Size of the Moon was different then the mass would be different as well.
The Moon would take another orbit, or wouldn't take any orbit at all.

I recently heard that the I.S.S. and planet Mercury have the same apparrent size when transiting the sun. Can anyone confrim? If this is true, I think this maybe a similar phenomenon as to why the sun and moon seem so similar in size. Just thought i'd mention it.

I recently heard that the I.S.S. and planet Mercury have the same apparrent size when transiting the sun. Can anyone confrim? If this is true, I think this maybe a similar phenomenon as to why the sun and moon seem so similar in size. Just thought i'd mention it.

Not quite! Have a look at:

Mercury and International Space Station transit the Sun

French astrophotographer Thierry Legault travelled to the suburbs of Philadelphia, USA
to capture both the International Space Station and planet Mercury transiting the Sun on Monday, 9 May.
This image includes frames superimposed on each other to show the Station’s path in the fraction of a second
it took to cross the face of the Sun, while Mercury appears as a black dot at bottom-centre of the Sun.
<< Click to show full sun image. >>                                                                  Image credit: © Thierry Legault.

On Monday, 9 May, Mercury passed in front of the Sun as seen from Earth. These transits of Mercury occur only around 13 times every century, so astronomers all over Earth were eager to capture the event.
For astrophotographer Thierry Legault, capturing Mercury and the Sun alone was not enough, however – he wanted the International Space Station in the frame as well.
To catch the Station passing across the Sun, you need to set up your equipment within a ground track less than 3 kilometres wide. For Thierry, this meant flying to the USA from his home near Paris, France.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Cool, thanks.

They are not the same size, just close.

The possiblity of their being close size  in a 3d infinite space; is zero.

Quote from: Joecool on August 19, 2019, 04:49:01 PM

They are not the same size, just close.

The possiblity of their being close size is same with being same size  in a 3d infinite space; zero.

As we can observe the moon and the sun to have a similar angular size, it is evident that the possibility for such a thing to happen is clearly larger than zero.

I came upon this statement from Earthsky web site:

"So what are the odds of the moon and sun appearing nearly the same size from Earth? No one knows." - a professor from Yale

Does this "noone knows" conform to the normal way of calculating probabilities? As in, do they really not know the probability/odds, or do they just not want to comment?

In science people say 'no-one knows' all the time. That's because science doesn't fudge or make stuff up when there is no data or theory available. Compare this with FE, which doesn't use science but the PSFYA method. As in: Pull Something From Your Ass.

Too Far
https://www.thegraphicdesignschool.com/courses/web-design-courses

Quote from: Joecool on August 19, 2019, 04:49:01 PM

They are not the same size, just close.

The possiblity of their being close size  in a 3d infinite space; is zero.

If 3D space is infinite then it is logical to expect that all possibilities would exist somewhere hence there is no reason why one of those occurrences should not exist in our solar system.

Especially as the sun and moon only occasionally appear exactly the same size in our solar system.

But in your tiny world the sun and moon are claimed to be the same size! This is from TFES.org:

Sun
The Sun is a revolving sphere. It has a diameter of 32 miles and is located approximately 3000 miles above the surface of the Earth.

Moon
The Moon is a revolving sphere. It has a diameter of 32 miles and is located approximately 3000 miles above the surface of the earth

Now what are the odds of their being both 32 miles in diameter?

Quote from: faded mike on August 19, 2019, 10:12:05 AM

I came upon this statement from Earthsky web site:

"So what are the odds of the moon and sun appearing nearly the same size from Earth? No one knows." - a professor from Yale

Does this "noone knows" conform to the normal way of calculating probabilities? As in, do they really not know the probability/odds, or do they just not want to comment?

There isn't a large enough pool of examples to accurately calculate the odds.

Okay, so probability probably isn't the proper arena for examining this issue, but for me this is a starting point to understand that our science is not giving us complete answers. I' ve never heard it said that suns to planets to moons are usually within a certain ratio, and hence we should not concern ourselves with this coincidence.

I find the fact that the moon and sun appear as the roughly the same size to be amazing, and highly improbable.  Very convenient for solar eclipses.   I can take it as some piece of evidence of manipulation by a creator or aliens from another galaxy or that there are things we just don't understand.  I can't see it as any kind of evidence that the Earth is flat.

Okay, so probability probably isn't the proper arena for examining this issue, but for me this is a starting point to understand that our science is not giving us complete answers.

And why would you claim that? There are four moons in the solar system larger than the earth's Moon.
The only significant difference is that ours is large compared to the planet size and is conjectured to have formed when another planet about the size of Mars collided with the earth.

I've never heard it said that suns to planets to moons are usually within a certain ratio, and hence we should not concern ourselves with this coincidence.

Agreed.

I find the fact that the moon and sun appear as the roughly the same size to be amazing, and highly improbable.  Very convenient for solar eclipses.   I can take it as some piece of evidence of manipulation by a creator or aliens from another galaxy or that there are things we just don't understand.  I can't see it as any kind of evidence that the Earth is flat.

Very true.

It also has no effect on the truthfulness or otherwise of our current science processes.

I find the fact that the moon and sun appear as the roughly the same size to be amazing, and highly improbable.  Very convenient for solar eclipses.   I can take it as some piece of evidence of manipulation by a creator or aliens from another galaxy or that there are things we just don't understand.  I can't see it as any kind of evidence that the Earth is flat.

What's even more amazing is that the moon used to be a lot closer. And it is still moving away every moment.

This means that we are at an extraordinarily point in time. Our human race just happens to exist in the era where solar eclipses are happening.

That is an amazing coincidence.

Quote from: stankann on September 23, 2019, 01:02:12 PM

I find the fact that the moon and sun appear as the roughly the same size to be amazing, and highly improbable.  Very convenient for solar eclipses.   I can take it as some piece of evidence of manipulation by a creator or aliens from another galaxy or that there are things we just don't understand.  I can't see it as any kind of evidence that the Earth is flat.

What's even more amazing is that the moon used to be a lot closer. And it is still moving away every moment.

This means that we are at an extraordinarily point in time. Our human race just happens to exist in the era where solar eclipses are happening.

That is an amazing coincidence.

That "amazing coincidence" is a little more amazing than that.
Solar eclipse come in 3 "flavours":

Types of Solar Eclipse

Partial Eclipse

Annular Eclipse

Total Eclipse

If the moon were much closer there would only be partial or total eclipses but no annular eclipses
and if much further away there would only be partial or annular eclipses but no total eclipses.

At the current distance and orbital ellipticity we see all types of solar eclipses.

Take a (conjectured) look at the moon long long ago:
If we had a time machine, what would the moon look like from Earth 4 billion years ago? How close? How big in the sky would it look?.

I find the fact that the moon and sun appear as the roughly the same size to be amazing, and highly improbable.  Very convenient for solar eclipses.   I can take it as some piece of evidence of manipulation by a creator or aliens from another galaxy or that there are things we just don't understand.  I can't see it as any kind of evidence that the Earth is flat.

It appears to be roughly(very roughly) the same size NOW. The distance between the Moon and the Earth has been increasing for a very long time. Millions of years ago, it would have blocked more of the Sun than it does now and millions of years from now, all solar eclipses will be annular eclipses.

Quote from: stankann on September 23, 2019, 01:02:12 PM

I find the fact that the moon and sun appear as the roughly the same size to be amazing, and highly improbable.  Very convenient for solar eclipses.   I can take it as some piece of evidence of manipulation by a creator or aliens from another galaxy or that there are things we just don't understand.  I can't see it as any kind of evidence that the Earth is flat.

What's even more amazing is that the moon used to be a lot closer. And it is still moving away every moment.

This means that we are at an extraordinarily point in time. Our human race just happens to exist in the era where solar eclipses are happening.

That is an amazing coincidence.

I don't know about that.  I think that it's amazing that our moon is so freakishly large compared to just about any other moon of any other known planet.  Most moons are tiny compared to their host planets, but our moon is so big that it actually has a significant gravitational influence on the earth.  In fact, the barycenter of the earth-moon system is 2900 miles (3/4 earth radius) from the earth's center.  If the moon was much bigger, then some might consider earth-moon a binary system.