Werepenguins 3: The Penguining

I'm of the opinion that we should hold back for today at least.

However, I have yet to make a single correct guess in this game.  Even when I was the narrator FFS!  So it might be wise to do the exact opposite of what I say.

Quote from: Jura-Glenlivet II on August 08, 2018, 03:03:55 PM

Quote from: boydster on August 08, 2018, 02:54:47 PM

I think we have to lynch on day one. Here's why. The ratio of penguins to villagers grows over time, meaning the penguins have greater influence over the vote later in the game. Yes, it's random, but history seems to hint it's mostly low-info voting anyway and it's worse-than-random when the penguins can work together to sway the vote.

The ratio gets worse if we do as usual and add to death toll of innocents ourselves

Right now 2 votes are potentially made to steer us in a particular direction, out of (how many... 12? 13? I'm not looking at the list). Assuming we don't get a penguin, those same 2 votes are more influential tomorrow, and more so the day after, etc. We are crippling ourselves by not at least taking a shot, boydster explains to he who speaks mysteriously and wants to not lynch anyone.

Remember when the villagers lost? I do. I led the charge on not lynching. Remember when the villagers won? They were roasting marshmallows over bodies from the onset.

But these people were all dead before we arrived. Why do you want to kill one of us for it? There is no evidence from any of our perspectives that one of us did it or that we have been infiltrated.

I am just a noob scholar here but that is my thought. Let us not descend into penguin like behaviour and kill our own. That is a penguin thing to do. Lets do what we came here to do.

Here is something I'm sure we will all enjoy

Deja-vu was an ugly word, Jura mused, French, She'd used it in hearing range of “Whoreson” (jroa WTF)and received scornful looks, more than one syllable I suppose. Jura chuckled, looked over to Whoreson and nodded, the grizzled veteran's thousand-yard stare gave away nothing and he looked away without acknowledgement, Jura smiled to herself, careful old man he thought, you forgot to scowl, people will think we are lovers.

No, Deja-vu was ugly because since Perth, Jura had been expecting it like a second heart attack, the consultancy cash from NASA had been easy money until then, keep an eye on certain people, add the odd meme, done.
The real black ops stuff had ceased years back when she had taken an arrow to the knee in the Catholic/Windsor turf-war over the Falklands.
Deja-vu, lying in the medical facility on South Georgia Island, listening to the penguins being herded below ground, sneaking down into the laboratories in the night, seeing the pitiful state of the King penguins, but transfixed by the red glower of the single imported Emperor, revenge and hate emanating in palpable waves and that mounting feeling that perhaps the people that paid your wages, weren't necessarily the good guys. What on earth had they done to those birds?

Now this place, expedient they said, they trust you, and Inti' is coming, get the intel' and leave.
But that wasn't possible now, com's down, reserve boat holed, weapons cache just not where it should be.

Deja vu, the Perseid meteor shower was growing to peak on the 13th, the link between NASA magic and the heavens, known to Jura, this looked like a set-up, a tidying of loose ends, that pulsing hatred was now here on this small Scottish rock, and Jura had no intention of being a tied up loose end.

Jura felt someone looking at her, leaning back she casually took in the room, Whoreson's gaze shifted from Jura's to the corner near the fire place, two hand axes rested against the wall near the wood basket, so the old guy felt it too, just as much a warning as possible support, should he suspect Jura, he would without doubt turn those axes to bloody use.

Either way Jura's life depended on/was tied up with the survival of this group whatever her former ties were, déjà vu indeed.

Wait a sec. WTF Jura weren't you a guy in the last round? That was just a couple days ago. Normally, guys don't shave, cut their hair, or change their underwear when they are on a winning streak. Yet you. You have now changed genders. This does not sit well with me.

Dammit Shifter, we're all gonna die if we take your approach. I'm THIS CLOSE to submitting my vote for you just because you still don't make any sense.

boydster dons a garlic necklace, and places garlic cloves down his pants. No sense protecting your upper body if you just get your bits bitten.

Dammit Shifter, we're all gonna die if we take your approach. I'm THIS CLOSE to submitting my vote for you just because you still don't make any sense.

boydster dons a garlic necklace, and places garlic cloves down his pants. No sense protecting your upper body if you just get your bits bitten.

I dont understand. These people were dead before we arrived. Do you know something we dont?

SOMEONE STOLE MY MARSHMALLOWS.

I'm gonna pm Bullwinkle and ask him if he's a penguin, and then see if he has the marshmallows.

Quote from: boydster on August 08, 2018, 03:25:04 PM

Dammit Shifter, we're all gonna die if we take your approach. I'm THIS CLOSE to submitting my vote for you just because you still don't make any sense.

boydster dons a garlic necklace, and places garlic cloves down his pants. No sense protecting your upper body if you just get your bits bitten.

I dont understand. These people were dead before we arrived. Do you know something we dont?

That's three times you said the same weird shit. The only thing I might possible know that you don't know, is that I know you are a weirdo. But I think you know that, so maybe that doesn't count.

<tries to look very serious>
<shimmies, attempting to get garlic into a more comfortable spot>
<it's now in a less comfortable spot>


[I vote to lynch Shifter]

If I'm wrong, well, sorry not sorry.

Quote from: Shifter on August 08, 2018, 03:27:04 PM

Quote from: boydster on August 08, 2018, 03:25:04 PM

Dammit Shifter, we're all gonna die if we take your approach. I'm THIS CLOSE to submitting my vote for you just because you still don't make any sense.

boydster dons a garlic necklace, and places garlic cloves down his pants. No sense protecting your upper body if you just get your bits bitten.

I dont understand. These people were dead before we arrived. Do you know something we dont?

That's three times you said the same weird shit. The only thing I might possible know that you don't know, is that I know you are a weirdo. But I think you know that, so maybe that doesn't count.

<tries to look very serious>
<shimmies, attempting to get garlic into a more comfortable spot>
<it's now in a less comfortable spot>


[I vote to lynch Shifter]

If I'm wrong, well, sorry not sorry.

What is weird about it? Again, these people were dead before we arrived. Why are we pointing fingers at each other?

Lynch me if you feel it is what you must do. I for one will be in the library reading Earth, not a globe.

I am saddened that so soon after our arrival, you are already out for innocent blood. Wasn't there enough of it already?

Are you hungry boydster? Let's eat! I see you have garlic on you. I love garlic. Mind if I have a piece to put on the pizza?

I reach into my pants and break off a piece of garlic, handing it to Shifter. WHY ARE YOU SO WEIRD?! Oh well, I'll still have some pizza with you.

Alright. Hear me out. New tactic. We kill no one the first three days. Even if we think we know who the penguin is. The fourth day we'll be 3 less, BUT the penguins will still be relatively low ratio, we won't have killed any useful people, and we'll likely have a much better idea of who the penguins are. Last game the psychic proved to be useful. I don't know how it will be this time with the idiot around, but we'll see.

I don't know about 3 days.  I'm thinking one day.

Alright. Hear me out. New tactic. We kill no one the first three days. Even if we think we know who the penguin is. The fourth day we'll be 3 less, BUT the penguins will still be relatively low ratio, we won't have killed any useful people, and we'll likely have a much better idea of who the penguins are. Last game the psychic proved to be useful. I don't know how it will be this time with the idiot around, but we'll see.

This story is different from the others. In the others, it was clear there was a murderer in their midst from the first day. In this one, we come across a murder scene. It seems to break continuity to want to lynch on the first day at least. No one should technically know there is an active plot against this group until one of us is murdered unless they are a part of the plot.

I am devoted to my flat earth studies in this trip. The scene that greeted us was horrific and shocking but I did my best to clean it anyway. We are here for a week. I think we should try to make the most of it in the spirit of the conference.

ALSO, important idea:

I've been thinking about this whole idiot oracle-real oracle thing. After the 3rd night (provided we haven't lynched anyone) BOTH ORACLES WILL OPENLY ADVERTISE THAT THEY ARE ORACLES (or that they think they are) AND WHAT THE INFORMATION THEY HAVE GATHERED IS.

What that will achieve is: we won't know of course which one of the two is true. However, here are a few things that may happen. If only two people say they are oracles, provided villagers are cooperative and that the oracles did their job well, we'll know for sure these two people are innocent. If penguins try to interfere by pretending they are oracles, by doing that they're putting themselves in a pool of 3 or 4 where 1 or 2 people are DEFINITELY penguins. So, of we see 3 or more people announce they are penguins we vote one of them to be lynched. Even if we don't lynch any penguins by doing that, we'll know that the penguin will be one of the people remaining in the pool. What's more, we'll gain more information about who the real oracle is. Even if we kill the real oracle, we'll KNOW that the information they gave us are accurate, which will drastically limit our choices, and we'll still have a very good idea about who the penguins are.

It's a pretty flawless plan in concept. However I don't remember how many players we have so depending on their number we may have to reduce the number of nights to 2. I'll look it up and calculate our odds. However, if we want the plan to work, EVERYONE will have to trust in it.

I don't know about 3 days.  I'm thinking one day.

My plan needs at the very least two to work well.

I would urge anyone playing this game to at least spend a few minutes searching the intertubes to determine independently whether waiting to lynch is a good go-to strategy. Spoiler: It's not!!

EEEK!
<I'm now in a relationship with one of the garlic cloves>

Of course, there is one danger to this: the real psychic may be killed by the penguins before they announced it. That's not a very high risk however (it's lower than the risk of them dying if we start lynching) and it's equally likely that the idiot will be killed instead, which will actually help us. Of course, the real oracle will have to be sacrificed then since the penguins will kill them the night after they announce themselves. But it's a sacrifice that has to be made.

I try my best to get close enough to Pezevenk to smell his breath while he speaks. Do I detect fish? No, the garlic is too strong. Like, incredibly strong. And I'm just covered in it. It probably doesn't help that I've been eating pieces of it all along... it must be coming through my pores at this point. But someone else should sniff Pez. I hope someone else sniffs him. Maybe someone of a... psychic persuasion.

I try my best to get close enough to Pezevenk to smell his breath while he speaks. Do I detect fish? No, the garlic is too strong. Like, incredibly strong. And I'm just covered in it. It probably doesn't help that I've been eating pieces of it all along... it must be coming through my pores at this point. But someone else should sniff Pez. I hope someone else sniffs him. Maybe someone of a... psychic persuasion.

Pez smells fine to me. Kouros cologne with his natural body musk smell. Reminds me of sandalwood
 

I try my best to get close enough to Pezevenk to smell his breath while he speaks. Do I detect fish? No, the garlic is too strong. Like, incredibly strong. And I'm just covered in it. It probably doesn't help that I've been eating pieces of it all along... it must be coming through my pores at this point. But someone else should sniff Pez. I hope someone else sniffs him. Maybe someone of a... psychic persuasion.

Psychics can sniff me as much as they want. I got my eyes on you boydster already.

A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS:
1) Can we cast a negative vote? Meaning, can I cast a vote to cancel out someone else's vote, without voting someone? If yes, I'll do that to cancel boydster's vote for Shifter. Otherwise, I'll just vote boydster to cancel it out. I encourage people for these first couple of days AT LEAST to try to cancel out people's votes so that we won't lynch anyone.

2) What's the ratio that has to be reached in order fir the penguins to win? Depending on it, the lynching abstinence may last 2 or 3 days, which will also determine how long the oracles will wait.

That plan is so good I'm kinda ashamed I didn't think of it earlier. But of course it still has risk. Which is why we need to think about whether or not we'll wait 2 or 3 days.

But someone else should sniff Pez. I hope someone else sniffs him. Maybe someone of a... psychic persuasion.

I'm not the Psychic, but I'm not going to pass up an opportunity to sniff a Greek boy.

[PMing Pez]

A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS:
1) Can we cast a negative vote? Meaning, can I cast a vote to cancel out someone else's vote, without voting someone? If yes, I'll do that to cancel boydster's vote for Shifter. Otherwise, I'll just vote boydster to cancel it out. I encourage people for these first couple of days AT LEAST to try to cancel out people's votes so that we won't lynch anyone.

Yep, voting to cancel's fine, just say [I vote to cancel so-and so's vote]

2) What's the ratio that has to be reached in order fir the penguins to win? Depending on it, the lynching abstinence may last 2 or 3 days, which will also determine how long the oracles will wait.

Total wipeout, like before. Which realistically is going to be a night beginning where there are two penguins and three or fewer humans, or one penguin and two or fewer humans. One gets eaten, a tie gets forced... There's no way to survive when that happens.

Quote from: Pezevenk on August 08, 2018, 04:58:48 PM

A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS:
1) Can we cast a negative vote? Meaning, can I cast a vote to cancel out someone else's vote, without voting someone? If yes, I'll do that to cancel boydster's vote for Shifter. Otherwise, I'll just vote boydster to cancel it out. I encourage people for these first couple of days AT LEAST to try to cancel out people's votes so that we won't lynch anyone.

Yep, voting to cancel's fine, just say [I vote to cancel so-and so's vote]

Quote

2) What's the ratio that has to be reached in order fir the penguins to win? Depending on it, the lynching abstinence may last 2 or 3 days, which will also determine how long the oracles will wait.

Total wipeout, like before. Which realistically is going to be a night beginning where there are two penguins and three or fewer humans, or one penguin and two or fewer humans. One gets eaten, a tie gets forced... There's no way to survive when that happens.

[I vote to cancel boyster's vote]

I'm not sure  about the total wipeout rule. That's gonna make it practically impossible for the penguins to win, so it's not gonna be a very fun game. In this case however, we can definitely make my plan work for 3 if not 4 days. Even though for 4 days, we may run too high a risk of losing our oracle before their time.

Also, I replied to the moose's pm.

[I vote to cancel boyster's vote]

I'm not sure  about the total wipeout rule. That's gonna make it practically impossible for the penguins to win, so it's not gonna be a very fun game. In this case however, we can definitely make my plan work for 3 if not 4 days. Even though for 4 days, we may run too high a risk of losing our oracle before their time.

We *cough* I mean they won in the first game, and came a day from winning in the second. I thought the same in the first game, but it's turned out if anything biased for the penguins.

It's even more biased for the penguins with the addition of the village idiot.

Quote from: Pezevenk on August 08, 2018, 05:33:23 PM

[I vote to cancel boyster's vote]

I'm not sure  about the total wipeout rule. That's gonna make it practically impossible for the penguins to win, so it's not gonna be a very fun game. In this case however, we can definitely make my plan work for 3 if not 4 days. Even though for 4 days, we may run too high a risk of losing our oracle before their time.

We *cough* I mean they won in the first game, and came a day from winning in the second. I thought the same in the first game, but it's turned out if anything biased for the penguins.

They almost can't win if we do what I'm proposing. Many things would have to go very wrong.

I ask all of you: What kind of villager would want to let three to FOUR?!!?! frigging days go by just watching their friends get murdered and not take any sort of action?

Let's say we don't lynch anyone for four days. As stupid as that sounds. Because it sounds stupid. But moving on. Now the penguins control almost 1/4 of the vote. And we, the rapidly dying people, have to hope we have more information to act on even though we've agreed not to lynch anyone so we can't get a good read on people's behavior when they think they are under the spotlight, and we have competing people saying they are the oracle who may or may not unknowingly be trying to get into some sort of alliance with a penguin.

It's even more biased for the penguins with the addition of the village idiot.

There's also the exorcist and Chosen One. The village idiot just counterbalances how useful the psychic was last game.

Well, we'll see how it goes.

I forgot about the exorcist and the chosen one (and what the chosen one is, I should read the 1st pst again).

To boydster: It's true that 4 may be too risky. But if we do as I say, we're guaranteed to get enough information to work with. You're not making your position any better. You sound like Shifter defending a troll.