Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre

Don't everyone act too hastily...This only has us missing any new salient information that comes up.

Actually I kind of like this idea of Jane and Roundy pulling off some kind of long con here.  It essentially sacrifices one in order to make the other bulletproof...crazy, but intriguing.

Is everyone convinced that at least one of them is guilty?

[I vote to lynch Roundy]
Just to be sure 

Quote from: Roundy the Truthinessist on July 31, 2018, 11:00:34 PM

My top suspect is Jane, obviously, for trying to subtly control the game in pretty much the same way she did last game
...as his primary accuser she is the one who really benefited from his death, because she thinks she can play you all for fools.

And that? Does not make any sense.
Last game I pushed you to vote for the popular targets. That's how manipulating votes work, you look at who people are already considering and you push them towards the safe options. Sticking to my instinct and targetting the same person I suspected all along is what I'm doing because I know of that tactic, I'm not going to let myself be manipulated away from a suspect like happened last game at SCG. The fact I accused Ichi and he got killed is a bizarre tactic no matter who the penguin is because they just killed someone that might have been lynched. Killing someone in the night that might have died in the day only makes sense if the penguins have something specific to gain.
And right after Ichi died, you immediately used it to try and curry favour with me, someone that accused you. No one but you made you do that, and the penguins could hardly have planned for you to do that as a framejob. That's literally what happened.
https://www.theflatearthsociety.org/forum/index.php?topic=77046.msg2082473#msg2082473

Instead of just saying it's 'flimsy,' tell me I'm wrong. Tell me how I benefit from someone I accused being eaten rather than lynched. Tell me how anyone does, except for the one person that did try to get a win from it.

Does anybody really not see how she's taking one minor incident (a 2 sentence comment on Ichi's death) and blowing it out of proportion like it's the most suspect thing I could have done? I just don't believe anybody would look at that and seriously think it's such a strong sign of guilt. It's part of the reason I so strongly suspect her.

Anyway Jane I did already explain how you benefit from Ichi's death, but since we're in a fresh voting round and it might help the other villagers see reason I will lay it all out again.

You were Ichi's accuser, and the night you accused him Ichi died. In the short term it seems to hurt the penguins since he becomes a potential lynching they might not have to worry about it. So why would the penguins (specifically Jane) do it?

Because it helps her in the long term. It's all about misdirection, something we found out Jane is capable of in the last game after BHS outed himself as the psychic and the penguins because she knew she could convince everyone else to lynch him.

Late in the game, when people are looking back through the thread for clues to who is and who isn't a penguin, they will see that one of the first people she accused was immediately eaten and she's hoping that it will convince them that she can't possibly be a penguin.

I mean I can't make it any clearer than that. Jane loves to point out that she knows how a penguin thinks, it's one of her subtle ways of manipulating the game, but you know what? I've played this game as a wolf successfully too so I know how they think too. And trust me, one thing a successful wolf or penguin or whatever has to keep in mind from the beginning is the long game. You need to set up your innocence early on, and to me the whole Ichi thing is such a blatant attempt on Jane's part to do just that I'm surprised no one else seems to see it.

Does anybody really not see how she's taking one minor incident (a 2 sentence comment on Ichi's death) and blowing it out of proportion like it's the most suspect thing I could have done? I just don't believe anybody would look at that and seriously think it's such a strong sign of guilt. It's part of the reason I so strongly suspect her.

Ichi was one of multiple points, but what it is, is the strongest single bit of evidence against anyone. And frankly you overtly using Ichi's death as soon as it happened to try and get on my good side is a hell of a stronger connection than what you're saying.

You were Ichi's accuser, and the night you accused him Ichi died. In the short term it seems to hurt the penguins since he becomes a potential lynching they might not have to worry about it. So why would the penguins (specifically Jane) do it?

Because it helps her in the long term. It's all about misdirection, something we found out Jane is capable of in the last game after BHS outed himself as the psychic and the penguins because she knew she could convince everyone else to lynch him.

That's... not how anything works. The reason the BHS misdirection worked was because people were suspicious. You'll also notice that at no point in the other game did we ever kill someone that was considered a suspect because there's no need to. That's independent of who accused him. As far as misdirection goes it's dumb because your link is absurdly tenuous. And speaking from experience in the last game, Duck explicitly suspected me the night before he got killed... and no one noticed, despite the fact I had a whole plan to twist it into looking like a framejob. With that in mind, you expect my master plan to be hoping someone reads several pages of threads starting at the beginning, spots the one post where I considered Ichi (besides you, it should be said, and yet you seem to be safe), and draws a tenuous link?

I'd also point out that what you call a 'blatant attempt' that 'you're surprised nobody else can see' was something that to begin with you used to tell me you thought I was innocent. To me that seems trying to get on the good side of your accuser, then twisting it around as soon as that failed.

Let's let the others decide who makes sense and who doesn't. I've laid out my case, that's all I can do.

I just hope that if I do get lynched once everybody sees I'm innocent it will shed a new light on my own accusations and they take you out next so the villagers have a fighting chance.

I don't know.  Roundy and Jane are both suspicious, but they are not the only suspects.  I don't like pointing fingers, but I also don't want to waste a vote. 

I'm watching all of you, while I eat these disgusting s'mores.

I don't know.  Roundy and Jane are both suspicious, but they are not the only suspects.  I don't like pointing fingers, but I also don't want to waste a vote. 

I guess I agree.  I'm not sure we're taking all the suspects as seriously as everyone should.  Like you never could have made enemies right away like Roundy and Jane have without sticking your neck out a little, but...hiding in plain site can be a good strategy.  Here's my new threat assessment:

Jane/Roundy:  increasingly likely that at least one of them is a penguin

SCG:  Like I said, possibly my favorite choice.  The remorseless doesn't sit well with me

Bullwinkle:  we better start paying attention to him.  Someone this quiet should have been an early penguin target...the mere fact he's still alive is highly suspicious.

Pezevenk:  seems to be playing it cool.  On the radar, especially if penguins don't get him.

Jura Glenlivet:  has gone dark it seems...strange, but also possible psychic.  If however the psychic dies and it's not him...bingo

Jroa:  wild card.  I have no damn idea

In short, I favor Cowgirl, Bullwinkle, and/or Jane and/or Roundy.

Jane and Roundy - possibly in cahoots
Pez - fears for his life
deadsirius - tries to sound rational and not like a penguin, won't eat s'mores
Bullwinkle - worried he will fuck up and get eaten or lynched
Jura - doesn't seem like a penguin, ate a s'more (probably spit it out when I wasn't looking)
jroa - drowned his sorrows with beer, managed to not get eaten
Space Cowgirl - just trying to keep everyone's spirits up with sweet treats

Bullwinkle - having trouble understanding the game.

I guess I agree.  I'm not sure we're taking all the suspects as seriously as everyone should.  Like you never could have made enemies right away like Roundy and Jane have without sticking your neck out a little, but...hiding in plain site can be a good strategy.  Here's my new threat assessment:

Jane/Roundy:  increasingly likely that at least one of them is a penguin

SCG:  Like I said, possibly my favorite choice.  The remorseless doesn't sit well with me

Bullwinkle:  we better start paying attention to him.  Someone this quiet should have been an early penguin target...the mere fact he's still alive is highly suspicious.

Pezevenk:  seems to be playing it cool.  On the radar, especially if penguins don't get him.

Jura Glenlivet:  has gone dark it seems...strange, but also possible psychic.  If however the psychic dies and it's not him...bingo

Jroa:  wild card.  I have no damn idea

In short, I favor Cowgirl, Bullwinkle, and/or Jane and/or Roundy.

I'm suspicious of Bullwinkle too, have to say. Jura's lower down my list.

Though I still say go for Roundy today, just so we won't be at each others' throats later, and so that Shifter's ghost will shut up. And because he's obviously a penguin, but hey 

Jane/Roundy: one or the other, but unlikely both.

Pez: seems a little unsocial all of the sudden. 

SCG and Jane pulled off a perfect game last time. 

Roundy:  showed up last game just to play as Roundy 2.0.  Came back as RoundyTheTruthenist this game. 

Bullwinkle:  Has he even been online for the past few days?

Jura:  I can't understand what you say.

jroa:  as suspicious as ever. 

Jane/Roundy: one or the other, but unlikely both.

Pez: seems a little unsocial all of the sudden. 

SCG and Jane pulled off a perfect game last time. 

Roundy:  showed up last game just to play as Roundy 2.0.  Came back as RoundyTheTruthenist this game. 

Bullwinkle:  Has he even been online for the past few days?

Jura:  I can't understand what you say.

jroa:  as suspicious as ever.

I am unsocial because I ran out of mobile data. Also I'm gonna get even more unsocial tomorrow because I'm going on vacation again.

Quote from: jroa on August 01, 2018, 11:36:21 AM

Jane/Roundy: one or the other, but unlikely both.

Pez: seems a little unsocial all of the sudden. 

SCG and Jane pulled off a perfect game last time. 

Roundy:  showed up last game just to play as Roundy 2.0.  Came back as RoundyTheTruthenist this game. 

Bullwinkle:  Has he even been online for the past few days?

Jura:  I can't understand what you say.

jroa:  as suspicious as ever.

I am unsocial because I ran out of mobile data. Also I'm gonna get even more unsocial tomorrow because I'm going on vacation again.

Hmmm, suspicious...

Also I'm gonna get even more unsocial tomorrow because I'm going on vacation again.

Hmm, Jane gave a similar warning in the final days of the last game...

Do I have to post the tickets or something? Send you a postcard? What do you want to stop suspecting me? What would a penguin even gain by saying they won't be around much?

Do I have to post the tickets or something? Send you a postcard? What do you want to stop suspecting me? What would a penguin even gain by saying they won't be around much?

So defensive! By Jane's logic you are definitely a penguin, come clean villain!

Sorry I get defensive when people suddenly want to lynch my ass out of nowhere for no reason 

Calm down.  You do know what friendly  banter is, right?  Or, are you being overly defensive in order to divert attention away from yourself?  Hmmm, suspicious...

Jura walked back in from the dark, those S'mores did not agree with his digestive system, if I were you I'd give it an hour before you venture near the reed beds.
To the game;
Jura doesn't have a fucking clue,
Jane & Roundy, is it a clever game? Or a protracted mating ritual?
Pez, could be, either way I want that postcard.
DS, again could be seems to be picking on the quiet ones, good idea or penguin logic.
Bully, could be (see, no idea), he's quiet but he is always a one liner poster.
Jura, could be, probably too good looking to be able to change into a were'.
SCG, could be, tried to poison me, but why bother when she can peck in the night.

Quote from: Pezevenk on August 01, 2018, 12:16:18 PM

Do I have to post the tickets or something? Send you a postcard? What do you want to stop suspecting me? What would a penguin even gain by saying they won't be around much?

So defensive! By Jane's logic you are definitely a penguin, come clean villain!

Uh, no, he's responding naturally, not defaulting to "You accused me, you must be a penguin!"
Say it with me now: it does not make sense for a penguin to accuse a random person out of the blue. A penguin would want to steer the existing majorities, not draw attention to themselves and put their heads on the chopping block if they're wrong. A penguin would want to distract attention from themselves.

Bully, could be (see, no idea), he's quiet but he is always a one liner poster.

That's what makes me wary of him. It's a neat way to not draw attention for absence while also not arousing suspicion by presence.

Oh! And JR, could be, doesn't understand me, is he my wife?

Quote from: Roundy the Truthinessist on August 01, 2018, 12:18:41 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on August 01, 2018, 12:16:18 PM

Do I have to post the tickets or something? Send you a postcard? What do you want to stop suspecting me? What would a penguin even gain by saying they won't be around much?

So defensive! By Jane's logic you are definitely a penguin, come clean villain!

Uh, no, he's responding naturally, not defaulting to "You accused me, you must be a penguin!"
Say it with me now: it does not make sense for a penguin to accuse a random person out of the blue. A penguin would want to steer the existing majorities, not draw attention to themselves and put their heads on the chopping block if they're wrong. A penguin would want to distract attention from themselves.

Quote from: Jura-Glenlivet II on August 01, 2018, 12:29:08 PM

Bully, could be (see, no idea), he's quiet but he is always a one liner poster.

That's what makes me wary of him. It's a neat way to not draw attention for absence while also not arousing suspicion by presence.

Jane, you're an ignorant slut.

Roundy, play nice!

So Jane, that could apply to DS, Jroa (sometimes) and Pez the holiday planner, you and SCG sound pretty much the same as last time and you were both evil incarnate, and there is no statistical reason that you both didn't land the same cards, some where there is also a psychic I do not want their blood on my hands. I may save my vote and try to tie it if it's close, although then I won't be any the wiser tomorrow.
But I don't think you are that! Roundy have a s'more.

We have a little more than 3 hours left, and I want to take a nap.  Someone tell me who to vote for, please. 

Quote from: Jane on August 01, 2018, 12:33:53 PM

Quote from: Roundy the Truthinessist on August 01, 2018, 12:18:41 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on August 01, 2018, 12:16:18 PM

Do I have to post the tickets or something? Send you a postcard? What do you want to stop suspecting me? What would a penguin even gain by saying they won't be around much?

So defensive! By Jane's logic you are definitely a penguin, come clean villain!

Uh, no, he's responding naturally, not defaulting to "You accused me, you must be a penguin!"
Say it with me now: it does not make sense for a penguin to accuse a random person out of the blue. A penguin would want to steer the existing majorities, not draw attention to themselves and put their heads on the chopping block if they're wrong. A penguin would want to distract attention from themselves.

Quote from: Jura-Glenlivet II on August 01, 2018, 12:29:08 PM

Bully, could be (see, no idea), he's quiet but he is always a one liner poster.

That's what makes me wary of him. It's a neat way to not draw attention for absence while also not arousing suspicion by presence.

Jane, you're an ignorant slut.

That's... Not very nice 

Quote from: Roundy the Truthinessist on August 01, 2018, 12:36:26 PM

Quote from: Jane on August 01, 2018, 12:33:53 PM

Quote from: Roundy the Truthinessist on August 01, 2018, 12:18:41 PM

Quote from: Pezevenk on August 01, 2018, 12:16:18 PM

Do I have to post the tickets or something? Send you a postcard? What do you want to stop suspecting me? What would a penguin even gain by saying they won't be around much?

So defensive! By Jane's logic you are definitely a penguin, come clean villain!

Uh, no, he's responding naturally, not defaulting to "You accused me, you must be a penguin!"
Say it with me now: it does not make sense for a penguin to accuse a random person out of the blue. A penguin would want to steer the existing majorities, not draw attention to themselves and put their heads on the chopping block if they're wrong. A penguin would want to distract attention from themselves.

Quote from: Jura-Glenlivet II on August 01, 2018, 12:29:08 PM

Bully, could be (see, no idea), he's quiet but he is always a one liner poster.

That's what makes me wary of him. It's a neat way to not draw attention for absence while also not arousing suspicion by presence.

Jane, you're an ignorant slut.

That's... Not very nice 

It's from Saturday Night Live 30 years ago.

Nobody watches SNL.