Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre

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Son of Orospu

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #180 on: July 30, 2018, 07:31:59 AM »
Distraction = worked!

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Slemon

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #181 on: July 30, 2018, 07:32:59 AM »

 Jura despondently orders another malt, since issuing the proclamation (https://www.theflatearthsociety.org/forum/index.php?topic=77046.msg2082606#msg2082606) which he thought was the answer, brilliant a stroke of fucking genius, not only had he (FFS read it) been touted as enemy, but Jroa, roundy, Ducks, SCG, Jane, Crout’ and Bully had all had the finger pointed at them, this has all the hallmarks of FUBAR.

Two people have me on their hitlist, Jane & Ducky, does that make them feathered in the night-time or feathered in the brain? If trying to protect the prophet with our bodies while he/she investigates, doesn’t seem a worthy alternative to blindly lashing about, then I’m stumped.

And I singularly do not see how this helps the penguins, please explain?
You're not on my list, I was just breaking down what everyone had said as a summary.

I do disagree with your plan though for the reaosn I said; the psychic doesn't help us because we don't know who they are, we might well just brush off what they have to say. Right now they might know who everyone is, but that information isn't going to come across as any more than regular suspicions.
And on top of that, we can't find out who they are; anyone that claims might be a penguin trying to trick us, or they'll just get eaten.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Son of Orospu

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #182 on: July 30, 2018, 07:41:03 AM »
I did lie somewhere on this thread.  Not on purpose, but after rereading it, I do see something untrue. 

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Jura-Glenlivet II

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #183 on: July 30, 2018, 07:50:37 AM »

I do disagree with your plan though for the reaosn I said; the psychic doesn't help us because we don't know who they are, we might well just brush off what they have to say.


But that’s it, if no one votes, then we last a few more days than the last debacle, the prophet should be able to survive at least long enough to find one while we act as meatshields.

They then vote, and we pile in, sure the penguin could pick one of us of by pretending but then they die, but we have to do this while our numbers are high, if we kick off today and kill one of our own the numbers start to stack against us.
Life is meaningless and everything dies.

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DuckDodgers

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #184 on: July 30, 2018, 07:52:06 AM »
Let me guess, you lied about lying. Go home jroa, you're drunk.
markjo, what force can not pass through a solid or liquid?
Magnetism for one and electric is the other.

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Son of Orospu

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #185 on: July 30, 2018, 07:54:10 AM »
Let me guess, you lied about lying. Go home jroa, you're drunk.

Yes, of course I am. 

Or, am I?

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boydster

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #186 on: July 30, 2018, 07:59:11 AM »
For reasons and via methods that even I don't yet understand, the bartender is the AI named Poe from Altered Carbon.

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boydster

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #187 on: July 30, 2018, 08:01:30 AM »
And jroa, I blame the penguin-madness for turning us against each other in Ben Lawers. I also apologize for encouraging your murder.

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Son of Orospu

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #188 on: July 30, 2018, 08:06:27 AM »
I thought I could pull off a better BHS, but perhaps I could not? 

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Slemon

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #189 on: July 30, 2018, 08:12:02 AM »

I do disagree with your plan though for the reaosn I said; the psychic doesn't help us because we don't know who they are, we might well just brush off what they have to say.


But that’s it, if no one votes, then we last a few more days than the last debacle, the prophet should be able to survive at least long enough to find one while we act as meatshields.

They then vote, and we pile in, sure the penguin could pick one of us of by pretending but then they die, but we have to do this while our numbers are high, if we kick off today and kill one of our own the numbers start to stack against us.
The prophet might well know who a penguin is right now, but what does that achieve?
They can vote, but to us that doesn't look like the prophet voting, that could be anyone voting, penguin or innocent. The only way I can see that working is if they find out who the penguins are, then die as that'll confirm their identity, but the time necessary to do that would mean the penguins picked a lot of us off.

The prophet is a boost, a vote that likely goes in the right direction, but we can't rely on them to do everything.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Roundy the Truthinessist

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #190 on: July 30, 2018, 08:24:20 AM »
Roundy - Was first to vote with limited information, defensive, only one who'd get anything from Ichi's death

Actually that last bit is so blatantly untrue that it's making me wonder again. There is really only one person who might benefit from Ichi's death (honestly I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around how it helps me since it seems to just take away a target and make it more likely that I will be lynched), and that's the person who levelled suspicion against him in the first place (since it wouldn't make sense to accuse someone of being a penguin and then kill him, unless it was intentionally to deflect suspicion from the accuser).

If only we could figure out who accused Ichi in the first place...
Where did you educate the biology, in toulet?

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DuckDodgers

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #191 on: July 30, 2018, 08:30:23 AM »
It makes no sense for a penguin to vote to lynch and then spend the next night feasting in them. More likely, a penguin is attempting to frame his accuser or his vote target.
markjo, what force can not pass through a solid or liquid?
Magnetism for one and electric is the other.

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DuckDodgers

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #192 on: July 30, 2018, 08:33:23 AM »
Ichi jokingly accused Jane due to her avatar and then voted shifter. His death only makes sense in penguins looking for the psychic in the quiet types. I fear deadsirius may be next.
markjo, what force can not pass through a solid or liquid?
Magnetism for one and electric is the other.

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Son of Orospu

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #193 on: July 30, 2018, 08:37:48 AM »
Jane was a werepenguin last time.  While that statistically means nothing, the likelyhood of her being one again is slim.  It is more likely that I am one. 

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DuckDodgers

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #194 on: July 30, 2018, 08:38:25 AM »
I thought I could pull off a better BHS, but perhaps I could not?
You've yet to proclaim someone as definitely safe, then act all high and mighty when people suspect you as a penguin.  Instead, you rolled over and said "please kill me".
markjo, what force can not pass through a solid or liquid?
Magnetism for one and electric is the other.

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DuckDodgers

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #195 on: July 30, 2018, 08:40:11 AM »
Statistically, it's equally likely that any one here is a penguin. The games are distinct and as far as I'm aware, boydster didn't stack the deck or add some sort of correctional method to avoid a Jane/SCG penguin in this game.
markjo, what force can not pass through a solid or liquid?
Magnetism for one and electric is the other.

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Roundy the Truthinessist

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #196 on: July 30, 2018, 08:41:25 AM »
It makes no sense for a penguin to vote to lynch and then spend the next night feasting in them. More likely, a penguin is attempting to frame his accuser or his vote target.

Again, it makes no sense unless it's setting up the appearance of innocence for later in the game. In that case it makes perfect sense and is extremely clever.

I have no illusions that I am surviving the day. But since I still win if the villagers win even if I die I want my suspicions out there.

Don't let werepenguin Jane win again, guys, think how humiliating that would be.
Where did you educate the biology, in toulet?

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Jura-Glenlivet II

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #197 on: July 30, 2018, 08:41:48 AM »

The prophet might well know who a penguin is right now, but what does that achieve?
They can vote, but to us that doesn't look like the prophet voting, that could be anyone voting, penguin or innocent. The only way I can see that working is if they find out who the penguins are, then die as that'll confirm their identity, but the time necessary to do that would mean the penguins picked a lot of us off.



Okay,
step one. Everybody agrees not to vote this round, unless the prophet decides to.

If the prophet knows both penguins he just votes, says his 1st choice but in passing mentions his second option (cos basically he will be killed in the night). We pile in.

If a penguin decides to pretend, we pile in and lynch one of our own but next go he’s dead (we win as the ratio of penguins to villagers is then in our favour)

If the prophet doesn’t know, he keeps shtum until he does know, we don’t whittle down our numbers by flailing about and the penguins will probably reveal themselves by their opposition to the plan.

If the Prophet is crap or unlucky we die, but I reckon it’s better than, he said she said, I don’t like the cut of his jib, guessing. 
Life is meaningless and everything dies.

Suicide is dangerous- other philosophies are available-#Life is great.

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Jura-Glenlivet II

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #198 on: July 30, 2018, 08:45:52 AM »

Oh! If the prophet knows one, he may wish to wait or declare the one he knows, a sacrifice that puts the numbers in our favour.
Life is meaningless and everything dies.

Suicide is dangerous- other philosophies are available-#Life is great.

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Son of Orospu

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #199 on: July 30, 2018, 08:46:24 AM »
I thought I could pull off a better BHS, but perhaps I could not?
You've yet to proclaim someone as definitely safe, then act all high and mighty when people suspect you as a penguin.  Instead, you rolled over and said "please kill me".

Well, when you put it that way, I am a pretty bad actor.  Is there anything else you can do to brose my ego today, or are you done?

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Slemon

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #200 on: July 30, 2018, 08:59:57 AM »
Actually that last bit is so blatantly untrue that it's making me wonder again. There is really only one person who might benefit from Ichi's death (honestly I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around how it helps me since it seems to just take away a target and make it more likely that I will be lynched), and that's the person who levelled suspicion against him in the first place (since it wouldn't make sense to accuse someone of being a penguin and then kill him, unless it was intentionally to deflect suspicion from the accuser).

If only we could figure out who accused Ichi in the first place...
Like I said, Ichi doesn't work as a framejob, he wasn't involved enough with anything, it's too tenuous a link. Sure, it takes away a target, except it takes away an innocent target and a target that the penguins would know to be innocent. Why would they do that? It's someone that several people were eyeing. They take away an innocent we might have lynched so that we... target an innocent we also might have lynched. There is no benefit one way or the other there, if anything they'd want us to lynch Ichi one day and you the next. This is more than a Bullwinkle, Bullwinkle's death said nothing because he wasn't involved and wasn't seriously considered.

You were the one that immediately used Ichi's death to try and curry favour. That is literally the only thing I've seen anyone get from it.

The only other motive I can see is as Duck said, if they were looking for the psychic, but even then Ichi is a weird first choice.

I'll be the first in line to admit no, I'm not certain. You could be innocent, you could also be guilty, I just don't have any more reason to suspect anyone else. Just a few hours left to sunset.

Okay,
step one. Everybody agrees not to vote this round, unless the prophet decides to.

If the prophet knows both penguins he just votes, says his 1st choice but in passing mentions his second option (cos basically he will be killed in the night). We pile in.

If a penguin decides to pretend, we pile in and lynch one of our own but next go he’s dead (we win as the ratio of penguins to villagers is then in our favour)

If the prophet doesn’t know, he keeps shtum until he does know, we don’t whittle down our numbers by flailing about and the penguins will probably reveal themselves by their opposition to the plan.

If the Prophet is crap or unlucky we die, but I reckon it’s better than, he said she said, I don’t like the cut of his jib, guessing. 

And if the penguins eat the prophet? 1/8 chance for them, even if they were guessing and not going by how people are acting.
Plus, it's more than guessing: it gives us information. If it's anything like the last game, the penguins would have voted for Shifter, at least one of them would have happily let an innocent die. We have a shortlist of six top suspects that are likely to contain at least one penguin.
Yes, the prophet can go through them, but that takes six deaths. We can go through at twice the rate because the prophet is still working while we're lynching, and see how people respond to those votes. And yes, I'm well aware that saying that is going to alter the penguins' behaviour, but it's still worth acknowledging. Alterations will be just as noticable.
There are ten of us left. Two penguins.
Tonight: 1/5 chance of the prophet finding something useful
Next day: 2/9
Next day: 1/4...
Those aren't good odds for finding one, let alone two.

And if they sacrifice themselves after finding one, then we're back to the guessing you dislike when there are fewer of us left.
I agree that we should listen should the prophet choose to out themselves with reliable data, and they are the prophet, but that isn't something we should rely on.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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DuckDodgers

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #201 on: July 30, 2018, 09:59:03 AM »
Chances are the psychic observed a villager last night.
markjo, what force can not pass through a solid or liquid?
Magnetism for one and electric is the other.

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DuckDodgers

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #202 on: July 30, 2018, 10:06:28 AM »
I'm not going to have much time to post right before night falls. So I'm going to cast my vote within the hour. As it stands now, Jane is my top suspect and Jura is my #2. I'll likely be voting for Jane unless something more concrete comes up.
markjo, what force can not pass through a solid or liquid?
Magnetism for one and electric is the other.

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Crouton

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #203 on: July 30, 2018, 10:08:51 AM »
I'm not going to have much time to post right before night falls. So I'm going to cast my vote within the hour. As it stands now, Jane is my top suspect and Jura is my #2. I'll likely be voting for Jane unless something more concrete comes up.

Imo Jura is slightly less suspicious to me.  I get being suspicious of Jane but her behavior is subtly different from the last game.  Space Cowgirl, on the other hand, her behavior is very similar to the last game.
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Son of Orospu

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #204 on: July 30, 2018, 10:12:58 AM »
Jura and Jane are both suspicious.  I will not vote for either until I gather more evidence.

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DuckDodgers

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #205 on: July 30, 2018, 10:15:30 AM »
I'm not going to have much time to post right before night falls. So I'm going to cast my vote within the hour. As it stands now, Jane is my top suspect and Jura is my #2. I'll likely be voting for Jane unless something more concrete comes up.

Imo Jura is slightly less suspicious to me.  I get being suspicious of Jane but her behavior is subtly different from the last game.  Space Cowgirl, on the other hand, her behavior is very similar to the last game.
You say Jane is acting different from last game, but she did a good job of blending in and driving votes. She did this by somewhat mirroring the group's behavior at the onset. This time, she is mirroring Jura's behavior somewhat. I'd venture 1 of the 2 are penguins, but likely not both.
markjo, what force can not pass through a solid or liquid?
Magnetism for one and electric is the other.

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Slemon

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #206 on: July 30, 2018, 10:24:11 AM »
I have to stand by Roundy, Crouton, SCG, Bullwinkle, Pez and jroa as at least one of them definitely being a penguin.

I'm not going to have much time to post right before night falls. So I'm going to cast my vote within the hour. As it stands now, Jane is my top suspect and Jura is my #2. I'll likely be voting for Jane unless something more concrete comes up.

Imo Jura is slightly less suspicious to me.  I get being suspicious of Jane but her behavior is subtly different from the last game.  Space Cowgirl, on the other hand, her behavior is very similar to the last game.
You say Jane is acting different from last game, but she did a good job of blending in and driving votes. She did this by somewhat mirroring the group's behavior at the onset. This time, she is mirroring Jura's behavior somewhat. I'd venture 1 of the 2 are penguins, but likely not both.
Not saying don't suspect me, but in fairness my thing last game was pushing wrong votes. Turns out I was right last go to not vote Shifter  :P
I tried to blend in by acting the way I normally would, so you aren't going to see much difference regardless. Though I have to question saying that I'm mirroring Jura given that we seem to disagree pretty majorly.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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DuckDodgers

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #207 on: July 30, 2018, 10:30:08 AM »
Mirroring doesn't necessarily mean voting the same or suspecting the same. The posting style is more what I'm talking about. Going into the RP mode as well.

I'm distrustful of pretty much all of you, but Jane and Jura hAve piqued my interest. I'm willing to be changed, but there are only about 20 minutes before I must vote or lose out today.
markjo, what force can not pass through a solid or liquid?
Magnetism for one and electric is the other.

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Space Cowgirl

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #208 on: July 30, 2018, 10:34:00 AM »
Shifter is that bbq I smell?
Crouton - not saying anything particularly suspicious
Space Cowgirl - roasting marshmallows
Jane - is a clever player of this game, not particularly suspicious
Bullwinkle - making very few moose noises
DuckDodgers - slightly suspect
Ichimaru Gin :]   :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(
Pezevenk - can't get a read on him, really
Jura-Glenlivet II - slightly suspect
deadsirius - not suspicious yet
jroa - too intoxicated to tell
Roundy the Truthinessist - slightly suspect, but less than the others
I'm sorry. Am I to understand that when you have a boner you like to imagine punching the shit out of Tom Bishop? That's disgusting.

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DuckDodgers

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Re: Werepenguins - The Perth Massacre
« Reply #209 on: July 30, 2018, 10:40:05 AM »
Where is Bullwinkle anyway? Or should I say, were?
markjo, what force can not pass through a solid or liquid?
Magnetism for one and electric is the other.