Actually that last bit is so blatantly untrue that it's making me wonder again. There is really only one person who might benefit from Ichi's death (honestly I'm still having trouble wrapping my head around how it helps me since it seems to just take away a target and make it more likely that I will be lynched), and that's the person who levelled suspicion against him in the first place (since it wouldn't make sense to accuse someone of being a penguin and then kill him, unless it was intentionally to deflect suspicion from the accuser).
If only we could figure out who accused Ichi in the first place...
Like I said, Ichi doesn't work as a framejob, he wasn't involved enough with anything, it's too tenuous a link. Sure, it takes away a target, except it takes away an innocent target and a target that the penguins would
know to be innocent. Why would they do that? It's someone that several people were eyeing. They take away an innocent we might have lynched so that we... target an innocent we also might have lynched. There is no benefit one way or the other there, if anything they'd want us to lynch Ichi one day and you the next. This is more than a Bullwinkle, Bullwinkle's death said nothing because he wasn't involved and wasn't seriously considered.
You were the one that immediately used Ichi's death to try and curry favour. That is literally the only thing I've seen anyone get from it.
The only other motive I can see is as Duck said, if they were looking for the psychic, but even then Ichi is a
weird first choice.
I'll be the first in line to admit no, I'm not certain. You could be innocent, you could also be guilty, I just don't have any more reason to suspect anyone else. Just a few hours left to sunset.
Okay,
step one. Everybody agrees not to vote this round, unless the prophet decides to.
If the prophet knows both penguins he just votes, says his 1st choice but in passing mentions his second option (cos basically he will be killed in the night). We pile in.
If a penguin decides to pretend, we pile in and lynch one of our own but next go he’s dead (we win as the ratio of penguins to villagers is then in our favour)
If the prophet doesn’t know, he keeps shtum until he does know, we don’t whittle down our numbers by flailing about and the penguins will probably reveal themselves by their opposition to the plan.
If the Prophet is crap or unlucky we die, but I reckon it’s better than, he said she said, I don’t like the cut of his jib, guessing.
And if the penguins eat the prophet? 1/8 chance for them, even if they were guessing and not going by how people are acting.
Plus, it's more than guessing: it gives us information. If it's anything like the last game, the penguins would have voted for Shifter, at least one of them would have happily let an innocent die. We have a shortlist of six top suspects that are likely to contain at least one penguin.
Yes, the prophet can go through them, but that takes six deaths. We can go through at twice the rate because the prophet is still working while we're lynching, and see how people respond to those votes. And yes, I'm well aware that saying that is going to alter the penguins' behaviour, but it's still worth acknowledging. Alterations will be just as noticable.
There are ten of us left. Two penguins.
Tonight: 1/5 chance of the prophet finding something useful
Next day: 2/9
Next day: 1/4...
Those aren't good odds for finding one, let alone two.
And if they sacrifice themselves after finding one, then we're back to the guessing you dislike when there are fewer of us left.
I agree that we should listen should the prophet choose to out themselves with reliable data, and they are the prophet, but that isn't something we should rely on.