There's no reason to suspect Roundy the way I see it. I can't decide who it is yet but I will say that if Roundy was a penguin, seeing as he was still a prime suspect before, he wouldn't have murdered another prime suspect, since all the suspicion would fall onto him, with the other suspect removed.
I only half-agree. It doesn't make sense for any penguin to kill a prime suspect, if things stayed the same we'd have lynched either Roundy or Ichi presumably and both are innocents, which is what the penguins want.
There's nothing I can see anyone get out of Ichi's death. Sure, it sparks confusion, but not in a 'what could the motive be?' way, but in a 'that was a legitimately terrible decision' way. It doesn't make sense to go after people that might die anyway.
The only benefit I've seen anyone get from this, and I've had a while to think, is Roundy deflecting suspicion. It seems too tenuous for a framejob, but beyond that...
It's not concrete, I'll be the first to admit that, but do we have any more likely suspects?
Stop killing, we have a prophet working for us, he must be allowed to work.
No one to vote before the prophet.
If the prophet knows who the penguins are he will vote for a penguin whilst saying, "but it could have been so and so."
We don't know who the prophet is. Maybe I am, maybe you are, maybe Roundy is and I've gotten it completely wrong. Either way the prophet can't reveal themselves because they'd either be a) a penguin lying to trick us, or b) dead the next night because the penguins saw.
For example, maybe Pez is the prophet and he's saying Roundy's safe because he checked last night. That's possible; it's also possible Pez is a penguin working to save his penguin compatriot, or that Roundy's innocent and Pez is just smarter than me.
I agree that staying quiet and letting the prophet work is one route, and should be considered, my problem is that it becomes very luck based. We pretty much have to rely on the prophet discovering both penguins before getting eaten. In that case, reducing the pool of likely suspects will help.
Random lynching didn't work before because a penguin actively influenced opinion and altered focus. In light of that, I'll take a leaf out of your book.
Jane's Proclamation
I stumble up onto a bar stool to yell my theories while no one listens.
Never forget your suspicions. Don't let anything distract you from the people you did worry about: that might be the penguins' goal.
If you get new information and things change, adapt accordingly, but remember what made you suspect in the first place, see if it's outweighed.
Last time the innocents had SCG in their sights, but they were convinced to go a different direction. Hunch-based lynching can work so long as we trust ourselves.