The problem I have with any discussion of the likelihood of us being a simulation is, all the factors used to guess at this likelihood (age/size of the universe, prevalence of intelligent life in the universe, pace of technological development, energy needs, laws of physics, etc.) are based on what we observe in our universe. But if our universe is simulated, then so is all of that evidence we can use to investigate the question. A complete Catch-22.
Perhaps in the "real" universe all of the above variables are such that simulating universes is utterly commonplace. Hell, the planets there might even be flat.
At any rate, for that reason I think the question is basically null. Interesting to think about though.