Coin Toss

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Stanton

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Coin Toss
« on: March 24, 2016, 01:06:49 PM »
Coin toss experiment . . .


1.    Make observations:

.          Coins have a two sides.


2.    Propose a hypothesis:

.          A tossed coin will come down either Heads or Tails.


3.    Design and perform an experiment to test the hypothesis:

.          Toss a coin and observe the result.


4.    Analyze your data to determine whether to accept or reject the hypothesis:

.          The tossed coin came up Tails,
.          therefore Tails comes up 100% of the time.



What have I proved?



You shills REALLY need to watch your vocabulary.


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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2016, 02:16:28 PM »
Coin toss experiment . . .


1.    Make observations:

.          Coins have a two sides.


2.    Propose a hypothesis:

.          A tossed coin will come down either Heads or Tails.


3.    Design and perform an experiment to test the hypothesis:

.          Toss a coin and observe the result.


4.    Analyze your data to determine whether to accept or reject the hypothesis:

.          The tossed coin came up Tails,
.          therefore Tails comes up 100% of the time.



What have I proved?
You have proved that there is a problem of induction.

?

palmerito0

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2016, 10:15:19 AM »
Coin toss experiment . . .


1.    Make observations:

.          Coins have a two sides.


2.    Propose a hypothesis:

.          A tossed coin will come down either Heads or Tails.


3.    Design and perform an experiment to test the hypothesis:

.          Toss a coin and observe the result.


4.    Analyze your data to determine whether to accept or reject the hypothesis:

.          The tossed coin came up Tails,
.          therefore Tails comes up 100% of the time.



What have I proved?
You have proved that there is a problem of induction.
When you have small sample sizes. If you repeatedly tossed the coin, it is likely that you would reach a value near 50% for each side.
Heiwa on the impossibility of space travel:

There are no toilets up there and sex is also a problem, just to mention a few difficulties.

WHEEEEEEEEEEE

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Rama Set

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2016, 10:48:21 PM »
Coin toss experiment . . .


1.    Make observations:

.          Coins have a two sides.


2.    Propose a hypothesis:

.          A tossed coin will come down either Heads or Tails.


3.    Design and perform an experiment to test the hypothesis:

.          Toss a coin and observe the result.


4.    Analyze your data to determine whether to accept or reject the hypothesis:

.          The tossed coin came up Tails,
.          therefore Tails comes up 100% of the time.



What have I proved?

The repeat-ability is important in experimentation.
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mathsman

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2016, 02:35:42 AM »
Point 4 has no connection with point 2.
2.    Propose a hypothesis:

.          A tossed coin will come down either Heads or Tails.

4.    Analyze your data to determine whether to accept or reject the hypothesis:

.          The tossed coin came up Tails,
.          therefore Tails comes up 100% of the time.

You should rewrite your hypothesis: A Tossed coin will always come down tails; or quote your conclusion in terms of the hypothesis: Therefore a tossed coin will come down either heads or tails.




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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #5 on: March 28, 2016, 06:40:07 AM »
Coin toss experiment . . .


1.    Make observations:

.          Coins have a two sides.


2.    Propose a hypothesis:

.          A tossed coin will come down either Heads or Tails.


3.    Design and perform an experiment to test the hypothesis:

.          Toss a coin and observe the result.


4.    Analyze your data to determine whether to accept or reject the hypothesis:

.          The tossed coin came up Tails,
.          therefore Tails comes up 100% of the time.



What have I proved?
You have proved that there is a problem of induction.
When you have small sample sizes. If you repeatedly tossed the coin, it is likely that you would reach a value near 50% for each side.
I don't know. When I toss a coin it tends to land on the same side over and over again. It's almost like Rosencrantz and Guildenstern.

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Stanton

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2016, 10:35:47 AM »
It's almost like Rosencrantz and Guildenstern.


 ;)

O.K., I'll start . . .

.    What do you mean by that?

You shills REALLY need to watch your vocabulary.


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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2016, 01:21:42 PM »
It's almost like Rosencrantz and Guildenstern.


 ;)

O.K., I'll start . . .

.    What do you mean by that?
I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

From wikipedia:
Quote
The play opens with Rosencrantz and Guildenstern betting on coin flips. Rosencrantz, who bets heads each time, wins ninety-two flips in a row. The extreme unlikeliness of this event according to the laws of probability leads Guildenstern to suggest that they may be "within un-, sub- or supernatural forces". The audience learns why they are where they are: the King has sent for them. Guildenstern theorizes on the nature of reality, focusing on how an event becomes increasingly real as more people witness it.

It's like the opening scene to said play when I flip coins as far as the regularity of their results. However, I have in the past found amusement in magic tricks and happen to know that this is likely just a symptom of flipping the coin in a controlled and regular manner. Any child can learn this trick with enough practice until they are able to flip the coin to the same side on demand a very high numbers of times.

In this also, neither remember where they are, why they are there, and so on. Rosencrantz seems to not care that he flips heads continually or where he is. Guildenstern worries. To me it seems like Rosencrantz here is fairly awakened and embraces existentialism. Guildenstern on the other hand is very caught up with the fiction in his head about what should happen when the coin is flipped in the world, rather than his world, and it causes him personal paradox and discomfort. Even though its not against the "rules" of Guildensterns world, the more times the coin is flipped "heads" the more against the rules it becomes and this causes him distress because he essentially has to question the "shape of his world" (albeit less so than we do here).

There is a real debt and weight when we ask such questions though - when we ask others to create our reality for us. On one hand, we trade an unparalleled happiness (or sadness if that's your thing) for the danger of being lost in a reality to oneself. On the other being lost in a reality made by the masses and thus likely miserable. While any one of us can create our own realities, we cannot (or perhaps should not) create our reality on our own to our own -- unless you happen to want to be a hermit or live by a pond in the woods. While there is a real need for us to create, there is almost as great a need for some coherency between our world and those around us which serves to balance and limit those of us that are Guildensterns. I think this is why Guildensterns would believe in fictions like "the coin will eventually even out to 50% heads", "induction", or that Grandi's Series sums to 1/2 even though it may cause them distress when it doesn't - because it causes calm when it does. It is the scaffolding for a worldview. An honest need to know where they stand so they can then attempt to walk. Once they have walked enough in their own world, eventually they may end up creating their own world or not caring about the world they are in, and thus transform into being Rosencrantz.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.

« Last Edit: March 28, 2016, 01:23:55 PM by John Davis »

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Stanton

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2016, 04:54:35 PM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D

You shills REALLY need to watch your vocabulary.


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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2016, 06:29:45 AM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D
Doh! That makes sense ha

Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2016, 01:16:54 PM »
Coin toss experiment . . .


1.    Make observations:

.          Coins have a two sides.


2.    Propose a hypothesis:

.          A tossed coin will come down either Heads or Tails.


3.    Design and perform an experiment to test the hypothesis:

.          Toss a coin and observe the result.


4.    Analyze your data to determine whether to accept or reject the hypothesis:

.          The tossed coin came up Tails,
.          therefore Tails comes up 100% of the time.

5.  Submit paper based on experiment to the "International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes".

6.  Receive rejection letter from said journal. Peer review points out the obvious shortcomings in your experimental design.  Tone of letter is friendly, but seems to imply that you don't even have a basic grasp of probability theory or how to design a simple experiment.

It also pointed out that your conclusion was disconnected from your hypothesis:

Hypothesis: A tossed coin will come down either Heads or Tails.
Null hypothesis: A tossed coin will not come down either Heads or Tails.

Result: The tossed coin came up Tails

You therefore provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis.

This: "therefore Tails comes up 100% of the time" has nothing at all to do with the hypothesis you are testing and therefore should not be included.  As another peer reviewer has already pointed out.


Quote
What have I proved?
Nothing.  Experiments provide evidence, not proof (even good ones).  You have provided strong evidence that you don't know how to conduct or interpret a scientific experiment.  Or that you are being silly.  Not enough data points to draw a conclusion, much like your experiment.
Quote from: mikeman7918
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if Donald Trump stuck his penis in me after trying on clothes I would have that date and time burned in my head.

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2016, 08:31:40 AM »
Coin toss experiment . . .


1.    Make observations:

.          Coins have a two sides.


2.    Propose a hypothesis:

.          A tossed coin will come down either Heads or Tails.


3.    Design and perform an experiment to test the hypothesis:

.          Toss a coin and observe the result.


4.    Analyze your data to determine whether to accept or reject the hypothesis:

.          The tossed coin came up Tails,
.          therefore Tails comes up 100% of the time.

5.  Submit paper based on experiment to the "International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes".

6.  Receive rejection letter from said journal. Peer review points out the obvious shortcomings in your experimental design.  Tone of letter is friendly, but seems to imply that you don't even have a basic grasp of probability theory or how to design a simple experiment.

It also pointed out that your conclusion was disconnected from your hypothesis:

Hypothesis: A tossed coin will come down either Heads or Tails.
Null hypothesis: A tossed coin will not come down either Heads or Tails.

Result: The tossed coin came up Tails

You therefore provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis.

This: "therefore Tails comes up 100% of the time" has nothing at all to do with the hypothesis you are testing and therefore should not be included.  As another peer reviewer has already pointed out.


Quote
What have I proved?
Nothing.  Experiments provide evidence, not proof (even good ones).  You have provided strong evidence that you don't know how to conduct or interpret a scientific experiment.  Or that you are being silly.  Not enough data points to draw a conclusion, much like your experiment.
I do think you may be taking his post a bit too seriously.

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Rama Set

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2016, 09:44:27 AM »
I think you, in kind, are doing the same.

Jimmy is one sarcastic dude.
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Stanton

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2016, 11:23:32 AM »
I have repeated the experiment several times.

The coin comes up tails 100% of the time about half of the time.

About half of the time, the experiment fails.
I can't explain why the experiment fails about half of the time,
so, I throw out the result of those experiments.

 

You shills REALLY need to watch your vocabulary.


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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2016, 12:45:53 PM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D
From which play?

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Stanton

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2016, 03:18:33 PM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D

From which play?



From Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead.

I read it a long time ago, so, I just checked the internet
to make sure I had not suffered a minor stroke.   :-\

(I copy/paste because I am lazy) . . .
Quote
... (t)ogether, they decide to probe Hamlet using questions and answers. They practice, borrowing the scoring used in tennis, but succeed only in further confusing each other. Whether they are seriously interested in the answers to each other’s questions, or whether they want to beat the other one at the game, is not clear.



You shills REALLY need to watch your vocabulary.


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Stanton

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2016, 03:35:57 PM »
Some of the dialog . . .


Quote
Do you want to play questions?
How do you play that?
    You have to ask a question.
Statement.  One - Love.
    Cheating.
How?
    I haven't started yet.
Statement.  Two - Love.
    Are you counting that?
What?
    Are you counting that?
Foul.  No repetition.  Three - Love and game.
    I'm not going to play if you're going to be like that.
Who's serve?
    Uh...
Hesitation.  Love - One.
    Who's go?
Why?
    Why not?
What for?
    HA.  No synonyms.  One all.
What in God's name is going on?
    Foul.  No rhetoric.  Two - One.
What does it all add up to?
    Can't you guess?
Are you addressing me?
    Is there anyone else?
Who?
    How would I know?
Why do you ask?
    Are you serious?
Was that rhetoric?
    No.
Statement.  Two all.  Game point.
    What's the matter with you today?
When?
    What?
Are you deaf?
    Am I dead?
Yes or no?
    Is there a choice?
Is there a God?
    Foul.  No non-sequiturs.  Three - Two.  One game all.
What's your name?
    What's yours?
You first.

You shills REALLY need to watch your vocabulary.


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markjo

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #17 on: April 01, 2016, 06:54:37 AM »
The whole experiment is invalid because it does not allow for the possibility of the coin landing on edge causing the tosser to temporarily receive psychic powers.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2016, 06:56:18 AM by markjo »
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sceptimatic

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #18 on: April 01, 2016, 07:24:23 AM »
Only tossers do that.

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Stanton

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2016, 11:00:02 AM »
The whole experiment is invalid because it does not allow for the possibility of the coin landing on edge causing the tosser to temporarily receive psychic powers.


OMG, I KNEW you were going to say that !     ;D

You shills REALLY need to watch your vocabulary.


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Son of Orospu

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #20 on: April 01, 2016, 11:23:19 AM »
The whole experiment is invalid because it does not allow for the possibility of the coin landing on edge causing the tosser to temporarily receive psychic powers.


OMG, I KNEW you were going to say that !     ;D

You tosser

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #21 on: April 01, 2016, 11:27:35 AM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D

From which play?



From Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead.

I read it a long time ago, so, I just checked the internet
to make sure I had not suffered a minor stroke.   :-\

(I copy/paste because I am lazy) . . .
Quote
... (t)ogether, they decide to probe Hamlet using questions and answers. They practice, borrowing the scoring used in tennis, but succeed only in further confusing each other. Whether they are seriously interested in the answers to each other’s questions, or whether they want to beat the other one at the game, is not clear.
1 - 0. Statement.

Whose serve is it?

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Son of Orospu

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #22 on: April 01, 2016, 11:32:11 AM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D

From which play?



From Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead.

I read it a long time ago, so, I just checked the internet
to make sure I had not suffered a minor stroke.   :-\

(I copy/paste because I am lazy) . . .
Quote
... (t)ogether, they decide to probe Hamlet using questions and answers. They practice, borrowing the scoring used in tennis, but succeed only in further confusing each other. Whether they are seriously interested in the answers to each other’s questions, or whether they want to beat the other one at the game, is not clear.
1 - 0. Statement.

Whose serve is it?

Shouldn't you know? 


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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #23 on: April 01, 2016, 11:40:37 AM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D

From which play?



From Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead.

I read it a long time ago, so, I just checked the internet
to make sure I had not suffered a minor stroke.   :-\

(I copy/paste because I am lazy) . . .
Quote
... (t)ogether, they decide to probe Hamlet using questions and answers. They practice, borrowing the scoring used in tennis, but succeed only in further confusing each other. Whether they are seriously interested in the answers to each other’s questions, or whether they want to beat the other one at the game, is not clear.
1 - 0. Statement.

Whose serve is it?

Shouldn't you know?
Why would I know?

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Son of Orospu

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2016, 12:03:25 PM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D

From which play?



From Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead.

I read it a long time ago, so, I just checked the internet
to make sure I had not suffered a minor stroke.   :-\

(I copy/paste because I am lazy) . . .
Quote
... (t)ogether, they decide to probe Hamlet using questions and answers. They practice, borrowing the scoring used in tennis, but succeed only in further confusing each other. Whether they are seriously interested in the answers to each other’s questions, or whether they want to beat the other one at the game, is not clear.
1 - 0. Statement.

Whose serve is it?

Shouldn't you know?
Why would I know?

Why would you not? 

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #25 on: April 03, 2016, 07:35:35 AM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D

From which play?



From Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead.

I read it a long time ago, so, I just checked the internet
to make sure I had not suffered a minor stroke.   :-\

(I copy/paste because I am lazy) . . .
Quote
... (t)ogether, they decide to probe Hamlet using questions and answers. They practice, borrowing the scoring used in tennis, but succeed only in further confusing each other. Whether they are seriously interested in the answers to each other’s questions, or whether they want to beat the other one at the game, is not clear.
1 - 0. Statement.

Whose serve is it?

Shouldn't you know?
Why would I know?

Why would you not?
Am I really expected to answer that?

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Stanton

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #26 on: April 03, 2016, 12:07:19 PM »

1 - 0. Statement.

Whose serve is it?



damnit   >:( :D ;D

You shills REALLY need to watch your vocabulary.


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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #27 on: April 03, 2016, 04:22:16 PM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D

From which play?



From Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead.

I read it a long time ago, so, I just checked the internet
to make sure I had not suffered a minor stroke.   :-\

(I copy/paste because I am lazy) . . .
Quote
... (t)ogether, they decide to probe Hamlet using questions and answers. They practice, borrowing the scoring used in tennis, but succeed only in further confusing each other. Whether they are seriously interested in the answers to each other’s questions, or whether they want to beat the other one at the game, is not clear.
1 - 0. Statement.

Whose serve is it?

Shouldn't you know?
Why would I know?

Why would you not?
Am I really expected to answer that?

How can we have a conversation if you refuse to answer questions? 

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #28 on: April 06, 2016, 09:10:42 AM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D

From which play?



From Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead.

I read it a long time ago, so, I just checked the internet
to make sure I had not suffered a minor stroke.   :-\

(I copy/paste because I am lazy) . . .
Quote
... (t)ogether, they decide to probe Hamlet using questions and answers. They practice, borrowing the scoring used in tennis, but succeed only in further confusing each other. Whether they are seriously interested in the answers to each other’s questions, or whether they want to beat the other one at the game, is not clear.
1 - 0. Statement.

Whose serve is it?

Shouldn't you know?
Why would I know?

Why would you not?
Am I really expected to answer that?

How can we have a conversation if you refuse to answer questions?
Where have I refused?

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markjo

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Re: Coin Toss
« Reply #29 on: April 06, 2016, 07:45:24 PM »

I'm referring to the play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which is based around Hamlet.

Of course I'm reading far more into it than the play suggests. I hope this was not completely off-topic.


My mind went to the game of questions from the same play.

I missed it by a mile.    :D

From which play?



From Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead.

I read it a long time ago, so, I just checked the internet
to make sure I had not suffered a minor stroke.   :-\

(I copy/paste because I am lazy) . . .
Quote
... (t)ogether, they decide to probe Hamlet using questions and answers. They practice, borrowing the scoring used in tennis, but succeed only in further confusing each other. Whether they are seriously interested in the answers to each other’s questions, or whether they want to beat the other one at the game, is not clear.
1 - 0. Statement.

Whose serve is it?

Shouldn't you know?
Why would I know?

Why would you not?
Am I really expected to answer that?

How can we have a conversation if you refuse to answer questions?
Where have I refused?
Is this the question game?  Can I play?
Science is what happens when preconception meets verification.
Quote from: Robosteve
Besides, perhaps FET is a conspiracy too.
Quote from: bullhorn
It is just the way it is, you understanding it doesn't concern me.