Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015

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dephelis

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #30 on: January 04, 2015, 01:02:56 PM »
Poppycock. The planetarium software on my phone and muy laptop uses orbital elements and equations based on a heliocentric model of the solar system to predict the position of the moon and sun at any date and time you choose to go to. The method used by open-source planetaria
 can be identified by anybody capable of reading code.

The NASA site makes no such admission, unsurprising as it is a section geared to explaining what Saros cycles are and how they are useful as a shortcut to identifying eclipses . I see your time over at tfes.org hasn't improved your comprehension and debating skills.

Go to NASA's official Lunar Eclipse page and scroll to the bottom in the reference links and try to find out how the eclipses were predicted. You will not see any statements or suggestions on that page or in those links that the eclipse is predicted based on any geometric RET system. You will only find references to ancient methods.

We see that the references are full of links such as:

Six Millennium Catalog of Lunar Eclipses: -2999 to +3000
Catalog of Lunar Eclipse Saros Series
Eclipses and the Saros
Periodicity of Lunar Eclipses

No other method is presented. NASA is candidly admitting that they need to use ancient methods for their astronomy. They are using a method from a society which believed that the earth was flat, no less.

As I said, you still seem to have a comprehension issue.

From INDEX TO FIVE MILLENNIUM CATALOG OF LUNAR ECLIPSES http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEcat5/LEcatalog.html

Quote
Predictions

Lunar eclipse predictions must take into account the enlargement of Earth's shadows. In this Catalog, Earth's penumbral and umbral shadow sizes have been calculated using Danjon's enlargement method.

The coordinates of the Sun used in the predictions are based on the VSOP87 theory [Bretagnon and Francou, 1988]. The Moon's coordinates are based on the ELP-2000/82 theory [Chapront-Touze and Chapront, 1983]. For more information, see: Solar and Lunar Ephemerides. The revised value used for the Moon's secular acceleration is n-dot = -25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy, as deduced from the Apollo lunar laser ranging experiment (Chapront, Chapront-Touze, and Francou, 2002).

The largest uncertainty in the eclipse predictions is caused by fluctuations in Earth's rotation due primarily to tidal friction of the Moon. The resultant drift in apparent clock time is expressed as ΔT and is determined as follows:

pre-1950's: ΔT calculated from empirical fits to historical records derived by Morrison and Stephenson (2004)
1955-2006: ΔT obtained from published observations
Post-2006: ΔT is extrapolated from current values weighted by the long term trend from tidal effects
A series of polynomial expressions have been derived to simplify the evaluation of ΔT for any time from -1999 to +3000. The uncertainty in ΔT over this period can be estimated from scatter in the measurements.

I suggest you concentrate on the second paragraph.

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #31 on: January 04, 2015, 01:18:34 PM »
Well the moon planets stars and the such seem to make up an awful lot of the questions hear and seems fe has no answer for them that stands up to scrutiny. Perhaps a re shifting of priorities?

What does fe socioty focus it's research studies on? Just out of interest?

Perhaps if we got help instead of criticism some of these things would be better studied.

We typically just focus on the challenges presented to us. It is difficult to work up the motivation to study the mechanics of a plate tectonics on a Flat Earth if there is no one there to debate.

As I said, you still seem to have a comprehension issue.

From INDEX TO FIVE MILLENNIUM CATALOG OF LUNAR ECLIPSES http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEcat5/LEcatalog.html

Quote
Predictions

Lunar eclipse predictions must take into account the enlargement of Earth's shadows. In this Catalog, Earth's penumbral and umbral shadow sizes have been calculated using Danjon's enlargement method.

The coordinates of the Sun used in the predictions are based on the VSOP87 theory [Bretagnon and Francou, 1988]. The Moon's coordinates are based on the ELP-2000/82 theory [Chapront-Touze and Chapront, 1983]. For more information, see: Solar and Lunar Ephemerides. The revised value used for the Moon's secular acceleration is n-dot = -25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy, as deduced from the Apollo lunar laser ranging experiment (Chapront, Chapront-Touze, and Francou, 2002).

The largest uncertainty in the eclipse predictions is caused by fluctuations in Earth's rotation due primarily to tidal friction of the Moon. The resultant drift in apparent clock time is expressed as ΔT and is determined as follows:

pre-1950's: ΔT calculated from empirical fits to historical records derived by Morrison and Stephenson (2004)
1955-2006: ΔT obtained from published observations
Post-2006: ΔT is extrapolated from current values weighted by the long term trend from tidal effects
A series of polynomial expressions have been derived to simplify the evaluation of ΔT for any time from -1999 to +3000. The uncertainty in ΔT over this period can be estimated from scatter in the measurements.

I suggest you concentrate on the second paragraph.

The usage of "coordinates" in that paragraph mean astronomical coordinates of bodies in the sky as seen from earth, not the coordinates of a sun in a Round Earth solar system. Astronomers, ancient and modern, have a system of sky coordinates upon which they describe observations. Terms like "23 degrees West past Zenith" are used. A clue that they are talking about that is that they also mention "-25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy,". An arc-sec, or a minute of an arc, is 1/60th of a degree. Degrees are used to express the 180 degrees of sky we see overhead. Arc-secs are units of measurement used in astronomy to talk about sizes of bodies as seen from a point on earth, or the distances of bodies from the horizon or from zenith, or perhaps from each other. It's a measurement of degrees in the sky.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2015, 01:30:22 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Cartesian

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #32 on: January 04, 2015, 01:58:30 PM »
The usage of "coordinates" in that paragraph mean astronomical coordinates of bodies in the sky as seen from earth, not the coordinates of a sun in a Round Earth solar system. Astronomers, ancient and modern, have a system of sky coordinates upon which they describe observations. Terms like "23 degrees West past Zenith" are used. A clue that they are talking about that is that they also mention "-25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy,". An arc-sec, or a minute of an arc, is 1/60th of a degree. Degrees are used to express the 180 degrees of sky we see overhead. Arc-secs are units of measurement used in astronomy to talk about sizes of bodies as seen from a point on earth, or the distances of bodies from the horizon or from zenith, or perhaps from each other. It's a measurement of degrees in the sky.

VSOP87 theory is used to predict planets' position and their orbital elements in RE solar system.
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Tom Bishop

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #33 on: January 04, 2015, 02:11:06 PM »
The usage of "coordinates" in that paragraph mean astronomical coordinates of bodies in the sky as seen from earth, not the coordinates of a sun in a Round Earth solar system. Astronomers, ancient and modern, have a system of sky coordinates upon which they describe observations. Terms like "23 degrees West past Zenith" are used. A clue that they are talking about that is that they also mention "-25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy,". An arc-sec, or a minute of an arc, is 1/60th of a degree. Degrees are used to express the 180 degrees of sky we see overhead. Arc-secs are units of measurement used in astronomy to talk about sizes of bodies as seen from a point on earth, or the distances of bodies from the horizon or from zenith, or perhaps from each other. It's a measurement of degrees in the sky.

VSOP87 theory is used to predict planets' position and their orbital elements in RE solar system.

If that is true, then it should be easy to look up an instance where such a model prediction has met reality. If the paragraph in question is talking about a solar system model then it is saying "the solar system model predicted that the sun would be here during an eclipse". There is no accompanying observation accompanying those predictions.

All models I've seen usually have a cop out statement that the data cannot accurately predict anything due to some celestial phenomena.

Where has such a model been put to the test? Why does NASA primarily use the Sarros Cycle from ancient Flat Earth scientists to predict the lunar eclipse if there are these superior geometric models?
« Last Edit: January 04, 2015, 02:21:48 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Cartesian

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #34 on: January 04, 2015, 02:23:58 PM »
Where does it say that NASA uses primarily the Saros cycle to predict eclipses?
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Tom Bishop

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #35 on: January 04, 2015, 02:28:32 PM »
Where does it say that NASA uses primarily the Saros cycle to predict eclipses?

That's the only method NASA's main site on the Lunar Eclipse gives us.

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Cartesian

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #36 on: January 04, 2015, 02:36:16 PM »
Where does it say that NASA uses primarily the Saros cycle to predict eclipses?

That's the only method NASA's main site on the Lunar Eclipse gives us.

That's the same page which mentioned that VSOP87 was used to predict eclipses. Maybe you don't understand my question. Where does it say that NASA uses primarily the Saros cycle to predict eclipses?
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Tom Bishop

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #37 on: January 04, 2015, 02:38:16 PM »
That's the same page which mentioned that VSOP87 was used to predict eclipses. Maybe you don't understand my question. Where does it say that NASA uses primarily the Saros cycle to predict eclipses?

Actually, that page says "The coordinates of the Sun used in the predictions are based on the VSOP87 theory ". It says nothing of the Moon. Part of that page predicts the location of the sun during the lunar eclipse using that theory. But there are no observations to verify those predictions.

If these models were any good, it would be easy for you to look up an instance where the theory was put to the test and actually predicted something in the sky.

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Cartesian

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #38 on: January 04, 2015, 02:41:45 PM »
That's the same page which mentioned that VSOP87 was used to predict eclipses. Maybe you don't understand my question. Where does it say that NASA uses primarily the Saros cycle to predict eclipses?

Actually, that page says "The coordinates of the Sun used in the predictions are based on the VSOP87 theory ". It says nothing of the Moon. Part of that page predicts the location of the sun during the lunar eclipse using that theory. But there are no observations to verify those predictions.

If these models were any good, it would be easy for you to look up an instance where the theory was put to the test and actually predicted something in the sky.

Do you know what an eclipse is? Can we have an eclipse without Sun being in a specific location?
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Tom Bishop

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #39 on: January 04, 2015, 02:49:23 PM »
Do you know what an eclipse is? Can we have an eclipse without Sun being in a specific location?

I see the word "Saros Cycle" used dozens of times on that NASA site. I've only counted "VSOP87" once, in the paragraph that was quoted, in reference to how predictions were listed for the location of the sun during the eclipse. Clearly, NASA is using the ancient Saros Cycle, a tool made by ancient Flat Earth scientists, for their predictions of the lunar eclipse.

What an embarrassment!
« Last Edit: January 11, 2015, 09:48:12 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Cartesian

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #40 on: January 04, 2015, 02:55:42 PM »
Do you know what an eclipse is? Can we have an eclipse without Sun being in a specific location?

I see the word "Sarros Cycle" used dozens of times on that NASA site. I've only counted "VSOP87" once, in the paragraph that was quoted, in reference to how predictions were listed for the location of the sun. Clearly, NASA is using the ancient Sarros Cycle, a tool made by ancient Flat Earth scientists, for their predictions of the lunar eclipse.

What an embarrassment!

You still cannot confirm that Saros cycle is the primary method used for prediction and calculation of solar and lunar eclipses, can you?
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Tom Bishop

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #41 on: January 04, 2015, 03:02:24 PM »
Do you know what an eclipse is? Can we have an eclipse without Sun being in a specific location?

I see the word "Sarros Cycle" used dozens of times on that NASA site. I've only counted "VSOP87" once, in the paragraph that was quoted, in reference to how predictions were listed for the location of the sun. Clearly, NASA is using the ancient Sarros Cycle, a tool made by ancient Flat Earth scientists, for their predictions of the lunar eclipse.

What an embarrassment!

You still cannot confirm that Saros cycle is the primary method used for prediction and calculation of solar and lunar eclipses, can you?

The NASA pages directly state that the Sarros cycle governs the prediction of the Lunar Eclipse. There is nothing about a geometric model used to generate the predictions. I'm not sure how much more confirmed it can be.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2015, 03:12:27 PM by Tom Bishop »

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Cartesian

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #42 on: January 04, 2015, 03:10:55 PM »
Do you know what an eclipse is? Can we have an eclipse without Sun being in a specific location?

I see the word "Sarros Cycle" used dozens of times on that NASA site. I've only counted "VSOP87" once, in the paragraph that was quoted, in reference to how predictions were listed for the location of the sun. Clearly, NASA is using the ancient Sarros Cycle, a tool made by ancient Flat Earth scientists, for their predictions of the lunar eclipse.

What an embarrassment!

You still cannot confirm that Saros cycle is the primary method used for prediction and calculation of solar and lunar eclipses, can you?

The NASA pages directly state that the Sarros cycle governs the prediction of the Lunar Eclipse. There is nothing about a geometric model used to generate the predictions. I'm not sure how much more confirmed it can be.

I am sorry but that page also mentions about VSOP87 which uses the geometry of RE model.
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Tom Bishop

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #43 on: January 04, 2015, 03:18:34 PM »
Do you know what an eclipse is? Can we have an eclipse without Sun being in a specific location?

I see the word "Sarros Cycle" used dozens of times on that NASA site. I've only counted "VSOP87" once, in the paragraph that was quoted, in reference to how predictions were listed for the location of the sun. Clearly, NASA is using the ancient Sarros Cycle, a tool made by ancient Flat Earth scientists, for their predictions of the lunar eclipse.

What an embarrassment!

You still cannot confirm that Saros cycle is the primary method used for prediction and calculation of solar and lunar eclipses, can you?

The NASA pages directly state that the Sarros cycle governs the prediction of the Lunar Eclipse. There is nothing about a geometric model used to generate the predictions. I'm not sure how much more confirmed it can be.

I am sorry but that page also mentions about VSOP87 which uses the geometry of RE model.

VSOP87 is mentioned once, on a side page, and we are told that VSOP87 was used to generate a list of predictions for the location of the sun during a lunar eclipse. Whether these locations for the sun check out or not, who knows. NASA is not really pushing us to compare their predictions of the sun during the eclipse like they are with their predictions of the eclipse.

There are many pages on that site dealing with the Sarros Cycle, which talks about it at a very great length and attention to detail. Are we to believe that the Sarros Cycle is not being used, and that they are actually using some geometric model they are not really explaining, despite that they state directly that the eclipses are predicted through the Sarros Cycle? That's quite a stretch.

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Cartesian

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #44 on: January 04, 2015, 03:35:58 PM »
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saros_%28astronomy%29

A Saros cycle is a good tool to guess when the next nearly identical eclipse would likely to occur after one particular eclipse has happened. Each cycle has a start date and an end date (after which it's no longer valid). There are plenty of Saros cycles, some of them haven't even started. Can you explain how people predict or calculate these future Saros cycles?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Saros_series_for_lunar_eclipses
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Rama Set

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #45 on: January 04, 2015, 04:19:16 PM »
The OP of this thread is arguing in favor of FE. The predictions of the moon, and of RET astronomy in general, are based on tables which log recurring phenomena. The fact that astronomical events can be predicted based on looking at patterns has nothing to do with the truth of a model. Aristotle was able to predict the Lunar Eclipse thousands of years into the future, and he believed that the earth was the center of the universe. The ancient Babylonians were similarly able to predict celestial events, and they believed in a planar earth.

It is no great feat to pick out a pattern in the heavens and predict when the next event will occur.

You continually act like an ostrich towards mathematical modeling that can predict the position of the moon and other celestial bodies.  Is there a good reason for it or is it just out of convenience for you?

Do you think there are mathematical models for RET? There is NO model under Round Earth Theory which predicts the Lunar Eclipse based on the geometric positions of the sun, moon and earth. This is even admitted by NASA. If you go to NASA's page about the Lunar Eclipse and scroll down to the how the eclipses are predicted links we see that the "modern" method of Lunar Eclipse prediction in the 2015 science facilities of NASA involves using ancient Childean methods!

Tommy, is that NASA page exhaustive or merely mentioning what is habitually used?  Sources for either conclusion please?

In the meantime, check out the USNO page on the NOVAS system Alpha2Omega mentioned and note that it describes calculating the position of celestial bodies from multiple reference frames (i.e.not just Earth) to within milliarcseconds and there is not a mention of charting to be found (not that chart based predictions are capable of milliarcsecond positions I imagine.)

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Cartesian

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #46 on: January 05, 2015, 05:16:19 AM »
NASA uses Besselian Elements to predict solar eclipses.

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In 1824, the Prussian astronomer and mathematician Friedrich Bessel introduced a new method for the prediction of solar eclipses. It was so successful that it remains today as the most powerful technique, even with the application of the digital computer. The key to Bessel's method is the expression of the ephemerides of the Sun and Moon in terms of the Moon's shadow with respect to Earth's center. This change in the frame of reference greatly simplifies the mathematics and geometry without any sacrifice in accuracy.
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/beselm.html
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Alpha2Omega

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #47 on: January 05, 2015, 09:44:38 AM »
Well the moon planets stars and the such seem to make up an awful lot of the questions hear and seems fe has no answer for them that stands up to scrutiny. Perhaps a re shifting of priorities?

What does fe socioty focus it's research studies on? Just out of interest?

Perhaps if we got help instead of criticism some of these things would be better studied.
The criticism is one way of helping. If no one points out the flaws and weaknesses, you can't build a sound model. For instance, if your model can't explain a sunset, it's not an adequate model.

Quote
We typically just focus on the challenges presented to us. It is difficult to work up the motivation to study the mechanics of a plate tectonics on a Flat Earth if there is no one there to debate.
I can see that. It would be best to address known inadequacies like travel times and distances, sunrises, sunsets, and the apparent motion of the stars, before tackling something really difficult like plate tectonics on a flat earth. Plate tectonics will be a doozie.

The bigger issue is that your model can explain almost nothing adequately. It's fun to expound on ideas like this as a parlor game, but if you want to convince many others it's a viable model, especially the scientific community, it's going to have to explain everything the spinning spherical earth in a heliocentric solar system already explains quite adequately - and do it better. Good luck!

Quote
As I said, you still seem to have a comprehension issue.

From INDEX TO FIVE MILLENNIUM CATALOG OF LUNAR ECLIPSES http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEcat5/LEcatalog.html

Quote
Predictions

Lunar eclipse predictions must take into account the enlargement of Earth's shadows. In this Catalog, Earth's penumbral and umbral shadow sizes have been calculated using Danjon's enlargement method.

The coordinates of the Sun used in the predictions are based on the VSOP87 theory [Bretagnon and Francou, 1988]. The Moon's coordinates are based on the ELP-2000/82 theory [Chapront-Touze and Chapront, 1983]. For more information, see: Solar and Lunar Ephemerides. The revised value used for the Moon's secular acceleration is n-dot = -25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy, as deduced from the Apollo lunar laser ranging experiment (Chapront, Chapront-Touze, and Francou, 2002).

The largest uncertainty in the eclipse predictions is caused by fluctuations in Earth's rotation due primarily to tidal friction of the Moon. The resultant drift in apparent clock time is expressed as ΔT and is determined as follows:

pre-1950's: ΔT calculated from empirical fits to historical records derived by Morrison and Stephenson (2004)
1955-2006: ΔT obtained from published observations
Post-2006: ΔT is extrapolated from current values weighted by the long term trend from tidal effects
A series of polynomial expressions have been derived to simplify the evaluation of ΔT for any time from -1999 to +3000. The uncertainty in ΔT over this period can be estimated from scatter in the measurements.

I suggest you concentrate on the second paragraph.

The usage of "coordinates" in that paragraph mean astronomical coordinates of bodies in the sky as seen from earth, not the coordinates of a sun in a Round Earth solar system. Astronomers, ancient and modern, have a system of sky coordinates upon which they describe observations. Terms like "23 degrees West past Zenith" are used. A clue that they are talking about that is that they also mention "-25.858 arc-sec/cy*cy,". An arc-sec, or a minute of an arc, is 1/60th of a degree. Degrees are used to express the 180 degrees of sky we see overhead. Arc-secs are units of measurement used in astronomy to talk about sizes of bodies as seen from a point on earth, or the distances of bodies from the horizon or from zenith, or perhaps from each other. It's a measurement of degrees in the sky.
There are several problems with this argument.

An arc-sec is a second of arc, which is 1/60 of a minute of arc, or 1/3600 of a degree. That's why it's called an arc-sec instead of an arc-min.

The secular acceleration n-dot = -25.858 arc-sec/cy2 represents the change in the rate the Moon's moves along the ecliptic longitude. This means the average speed the Moon appears to move around the ecliptic is slowing (the negative sign means it's getting slower) by almost 26 arc-seconds per cycle, each cycle.

Modern astronomical coordinates are typically referenced to the celestial equator and equinox of a specific epoch (an epoch is a specific date and time) and not a specific point in the sky as seen from earth. Planetary positions (and the Sun) are usually calculated using a coordinate system with its origin at the solar system barycenter (center of mass), which is close to or within the Sun. Calculated positions in barycentric coordinates can then be translated to other locations, such as geocentric, as needed. Geocentric coordinates can be translated to topocentric coordinates (your very own location), then rotated into your local altitude and azimuth as desired. There are a number of coordinate systems in use for current work; which is used depends on the problem at hand - whatever is easiest is usually selected because it's almost trivial to convert the results into other coordinate systems. I can't speak for the ancients; theirs were probably all topocentric using local level and maybe north.

That's the same page which mentioned that VSOP87 was used to predict eclipses. Maybe you don't understand my question. Where does it say that NASA uses primarily the Saros cycle to predict eclipses?

Actually, that page says "The coordinates of the Sun used in the predictions are based on the VSOP87 theory ". It says nothing of the Moon. Part of that page predicts the location of the sun during the lunar eclipse using that theory. But there are no observations to verify those predictions.
Yes it does. You must have missed "For the Moon, use has been made of the theory ELP-2000/82 of M. Chapront-Touze and J. Chapront [1983]", and "The Moon's coordinates are based on the ELP-2000/82 theory [Chapront-Touze and Chapront, 1983]. For more information, see: Solar and Lunar Ephemerides." as paraphrased in the quoted text.

What do you mean "no observations to verify those predictions"? Are you suggesting that no one can see the Sun while a lunar eclipse is in progress? This is ridiculous. People study the Sun every day (even when a lunar eclipse is in progress on the other side of the world), many using automated telescopes that would not be pointing at the Sun if it wasn't where it was expected.

Incidentally, VSOP is used for the long-range predictions. Many of the recent and soon-to-happen ones use the JPL DE405 Ephemeris for the location of Sun, Earth, and Moon; it's quite accurate. Here is an example; look at the lower left of the page for the reference to DE405. Other mathematical models and ephemerides can be used, giving similar results. Of the bunch, I think DE405 is the most precise, but don't quote me on that.

Quote
If these models were any good, it would be easy for you to look up an instance where the theory was put to the test and actually predicted something in the sky.
It's very easy, and these are put to the test all the time. Get a smartphone and the Sky Safari app (US$3 for the basic app, I think). If you don't have or want a smartphone, get Stellarium for your computer (it's free). You must have at least one or the other of these devices if you're here. Check it out for yourself; see where they predict the Sun, Moon, and planets are at any time. Compare with the sky at the time of the prediction. Compare again on other nights and/or other locations. Works every time.

These programs can be used to accurately point telescopes to the Moon and planets. They're used for exactly that all the time.

[Edit] Moved parenthetic statement with cost for Sky Safari.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2015, 09:50:42 AM by Alpha2Omega »
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Tom Bishop

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #48 on: January 06, 2015, 01:51:21 AM »
Rama, Alpha,

You need published experiments or observations that demonstrates that these models are correct. "Someone would have noticed" is not an argument. We've documented that the sunset times listed in newspapers are often wrong, despite Round Earthers telling us to consult the newspaper as a source of authority.

Guess what else is printed in the newspaper? Horoscopes and lucky lottery numbers.

Cartesian,

Fiedrich Bessel used different types of mathematical models for expressing the patterns the eclipses come in (he also had one for the lunar eclipse), but the fact that the Saros Cycle pattern can be expressed differently, and maybe more accurately, is meaningless in terms of this discussion. Samuel Birley Rowbotham looks at one of Bessel's equations at the end of the Lunar Eclipse chapter in Earth Not a Globe, a copy of which can be found online.
« Last Edit: January 06, 2015, 02:07:38 AM by Tom Bishop »

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #49 on: January 06, 2015, 04:25:23 AM »
Rama, Alpha,

You need published experiments or observations that demonstrates that these models are correct. "Someone would have noticed" is not an argument. We've documented that the sunset times listed in newspapers are often wrong, despite Round Earthers telling us to consult the newspaper as a source of authority.

Guess what else is printed in the newspaper? Horoscopes and lucky lottery numbers.

Cartesian,

Fiedrich Bessel used different types of mathematical models for expressing the patterns the eclipses come in (he also had one for the lunar eclipse), but the fact that the Saros Cycle pattern can be expressed differently, and maybe more accurately, is meaningless in terms of this discussion. Samuel Birley Rowbotham looks at one of Bessel's equations at the end of the Lunar Eclipse chapter in Earth Not a Globe, a copy of which can be found online.

The models used in astronomy software are used by millions of people across the globe every night for highly accurate prediction of object positions and for telescope guidance. It it the status quo that the models are correct and therefore do not need published evidence.

What you have asked for is the same as asking for published evidence that 2+2=4. It isn't required as it is a generally accepted fact.
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ausGeoff

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #50 on: January 06, 2015, 08:40:36 AM »
We've documented that the sunset times listed in newspapers are often wrong...
No you haven't. Sorry.

Quote
Guess what else is printed in the newspaper? Horoscopes and lucky lottery numbers.
Strawman.

Quote
Samuel Birley Rowbotham looks at one of Bessel's equations at the end of the Lunar Eclipse chapter in Earth Not a Globe...
Rowbotham was not a scientist (he was a lay preacher), and possessed no formal academic qualifications.  He was therefore ill-equipped to comment on any matters scientific.

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Alpha2Omega

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #51 on: January 06, 2015, 01:57:03 PM »
Rama, Alpha,

You need published experiments or observations that demonstrates that these models are correct. "Someone would have noticed" is not an argument.
Sure it is. These models are used frequently. Can you point to any published experiments or observations demonstrating the predictions from these models were wrong?

I'm a little surprised you'd ask for something like this because the general attitude around here is to scoff at such. No published paper I know of has an abstract that reads something like "We carefully measured the apparent positions of the Sun and planets in the sky and they were where they were expected to be." One paper I do happen to have and also have a reference to, is IPN Progress Report 42-178, The Planetary and Lunar Ephemeris DE 421. In it, among other things, they note errors in the predicted position of Mars of as much as 2 km using DE405. The location for Mars was off by two whole km! Oh, the humanity! They also say DE421 "is recommended for use by lunar missions" because of improved data from laser ranging, and better integration with the rest of the solar-system bodies.

Scoff at that if you want to, but, in fact, every time I use my (surprisingly inexpensive) telescope to automatically slew to a solar system object I am conducting exactly that experiment. It never fails[nb]Except for one of the first times I used it; the alignment was messed up and it couldn't find anything else, either. After resetting the mount and and repeating the alignment procedure, it worked fine. I probably aligned on the wrong star on the initial attempt; if you do that, all bets are off.[/nb]. This doesn't warrant publishing a paper.

Better, yet - you don't have to take my word, or any published author's word, that it works - you can try it for yourself, which is the Zetetic way, isn't it? Have you tried this? If not, what are you afraid of?

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We've documented that the sunset times listed in newspapers are often wrong,
Since you say you have documentation, can you show it or provide a link to it? I don't know anyone who claims newspapers are error-free, but I'd like to see more about how often is "often", details about how far off they were, and if there is a systematic error.

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despite Round Earthers telling us to consult the newspaper as a source of authority.
There are better sources. The one I recommend is:

For a given day
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.php

For a full year at a time
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneYear.php

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Guess what else is printed in the newspaper? Horoscopes and lucky lottery numbers.
Newspapers also publish puzzles and comics for entertainment, too. So what? That they sometimes make mistakes when publishing factual material is hardly news. You'd be better off getting info like this from the US Naval Observatory or similar sources if its reliability is important.
 
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

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ausGeoff

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #52 on: January 07, 2015, 06:36:14 AM »
Since you say you have documentation, can you show it or provide a link to it? I don't know anyone who claims newspapers are error-free, but I'd like to see more about how often is "often", details about how far off they were, and if there is a systematic error.

Unfortunately, flat earthers have a common practice of posting a "guess" favourable to their claims as though it were in actuality a documented "fact", and hope that we don't notice it amongst the plethora of other guesses.

What concerns me even more is that it's apparent from Tom Bishop's comment that he obtains his solar chart information solely from newspapers (which he claims, rightly of course, make errors) but doesn't refer to accredited scientific data—which don't make errors.

And I can answer in advance for Tom:  No, he won't be able to provide any link(s) that show a sustained number of newsprint errors in sunrise/set or moonrise/set timings.

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Rama Set

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #53 on: January 07, 2015, 11:37:06 AM »
Just to keep everyone's noses clean:

Since you say you have documentation, can you show it or provide a link to it? I don't know anyone who claims newspapers are error-free, but I'd like to see more about how often is "often", details about how far off they were, and if there is a systematic error.

Unfortunately, flat earthers have a common practice of posting a "guess" favourable to their claims as though it were in actuality a documented "fact", and hope that we don't notice it amongst the plethora of other guesses.

Irrelelvant.  This may or may not be true in this case.  Tom actually has a good record of providing sources. Whether or not they are correctly interpreted is another story.

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What concerns me even more is that it's apparent from Tom Bishop's comment that he obtains his solar chart information solely from newspapers (which he claims, rightly of course, make errors)

You are inferring that newspapers are his sole.  It is not explicitly stated.

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but doesn't refer to accredited scientific data—which don't make errors.

This is a ridiculous statement.  Everyone makes errors.

http://academics.wellesley.edu/Chemistry/chem211lab/Orgo_Lab_Manual/Appendix/experimental_error.html

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And I can answer in advance for Tom:  No, he won't be able to provide any link(s) that show a sustained number of newsprint errors in sunrise/set or moonrise/set timings.

*facepalm* Let Tom dig his own grave.
Aether is the  characteristic of action or inaction of charged  & noncharged particals.

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Dinosaur Neil

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #54 on: January 07, 2015, 04:12:57 PM »
Tom, your model does not adequately explain observations of transits of Venus.
Founder member of the League Of Scientific Gentlemen and Mademoiselles des Connaissances.
I am pompous, self-righteous, thin skinned, and smug.

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ausGeoff

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #55 on: January 07, 2015, 08:56:18 PM »
Tom actually has a good record of providing sources. Whether or not they are correctly interpreted is another story.

No he doesn't.  He accepts that the earth is flat, and rejects the scientific status quo that states it's an oblate spheroid.  That in itself makes any/all of his "sources" subject to ambiguity and skepticism.  And one cannot "interpret" that the earth is either round or flat.  That conclusion requires empirical evidence.  And Tom has none for his claims, whereas round earthers do so unequivocally for theirs.

End of story.


PS:  Why do you consistently make apologies for the flat earthers?  Still like to have one foot in each camp maybe?  Or you see yourself as the Switzerland of the FES forums?   ;D

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Rama Set

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #56 on: January 07, 2015, 09:32:29 PM »
Tom actually has a good record of providing sources. Whether or not they are correctly interpreted is another story.
[Blah blah blah]

PS:  Why do you consistently make apologies for the flat earthers?  Still like to have one foot in each camp maybe?  Or you see yourself as the Switzerland of the FES forums?   ;D

I don't consistently make apologies for FEers, that is your narcissism kicking in.  I criticize your posts consistently because they are egregious and I like to make sure I do not get lumped in with you.

Aether is the  characteristic of action or inaction of charged  & noncharged particals.

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Lemmiwinks

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #57 on: January 08, 2015, 08:42:39 AM »
Literally non of that works with observations. I actually think you have just strung words together and thrown a few astronomical ones in with it.

What angle to the earth do.they rotate around the Sun?

The matter has not been studied and is presently unknown.

Why has no one ever studied it? Or has it been studied Nd shown to not fit with fe?

There has not been a conversation to give us reason to study it. There are thousands of things we could study about the earth and the stars. We focus on the challenges presented to us.

To translate, we "study" everything we think we can cram into the flat earth model and ignore everything that is impossible to explain using it.

Also I am fairly certain now that Alpha is in here Tom wont come back, once he is directly and irrefutably challenged he either ignores the person completely or just flees the thread, as is his MO over on tfes.org.
I have 13 [academic qualifications] actually. I'll leave it up to you to guess which, or simply call me a  liar. Either is fine.

Quod gratis asseritur, gratis negatur

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Tom Bishop

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #58 on: January 11, 2015, 07:22:07 AM »
Alpha has not responded back to my challenge of showing where the predictions of these models have met reality. All I'm seeing is "people would have noticed" and "go try it yourself".

That is not evidence. If you read deep enough into these types of models there is often always an excuse that the predictions are not accurate because of some celestial reason with perturbations in gravity, or a similar cop out.

I'm afraid I am done here.

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Dinosaur Neil

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Re: Taking prediction to the next level - Moon Phases & Libration 2015
« Reply #59 on: January 11, 2015, 07:43:58 AM »
Alpha has not responded back to my challenge of showing where the predictions of these models have met reality. All I'm seeing is "people would have noticed" and "go try it yourself".

That is not evidence. If you read deep enough into these types of models there is often always an excuse that the predictions are not accurate because of some celestial reason with perturbations in gravity, or a similar cop out.

I'm afraid I am done here.

Uh, Tom, there are photos that people have posted on this forum before of actual differences in libration. Why not user the search function? If I can find them so can you.
Founder member of the League Of Scientific Gentlemen and Mademoiselles des Connaissances.
I am pompous, self-righteous, thin skinned, and smug.