Occam's razor and the flat earth "theory"

Quote from: V on May 04, 2014, 12:30:46 PM

Quote from: Goddamnit, Clown on May 04, 2014, 12:12:42 PM

Occam's razor is often misinterpreted to mean that the simplest hypothesis is correct.

In truth, it's far from an ironclad law and in any case its purpose is only to help choose one of several otherwise equally strong hypotheses. For example, you hypothesise that the circles in your crops were caused by aliens, you test this hypothesis by watching your fields and seeing who draws the next circle. You see nobody and conclude that it was aliens, invisible aliens!

Occam's razor simply warns against inventing aliens and inventing invisibility just to explain something that was probably just a couple of bored students with string and sticks that you didn't notice. Yes, they both equally explain the crop circles, but one of them requires a whole load of new and otherwise unfounded assumptions. Plus it makes you look like an idiot.

To quote Sceptimatic, I don't profess to be correct. I said "almost always correct", and "usually correct", but not "always correct."

I am very confused by this answer. Occam's Razor is never about being correct or always correct.

This whole FES is the best example ever of when not to use Occam's Razor. If you do not have two hypothesis of equal predictive strength, you cannot use Occam's Razor at all. When one hypothesis explains just about everything (except some observations at the galactic level or near black holes) and another does not even correctly predict the movements of the Sun, Moon and planets, (something that even the Babylonians and Mayas could do very well), there is no need for Occam's Razor. In fact, in this case there is no use or applicability for Occam's Razor.

When you have two hypothesis of equal predicting power, Occam's Razor is the only guide you can use to choose one. When one hypothesis is absolutely superior to another, Occam's Razor is just the wrong tool for a problem that is already solved.

I entirely agree with you. Unfortunately, when people like FE'ers believe two hypotheses are equal, it necessitates the usage of Occam's Razor to prove a point.

Quote from: Umurweird on May 04, 2014, 11:55:41 AM

Quote

If you never were able to leave the room, it really wouldn't be at all impossible that there exists no outside world in this scenario.

And if all you ever did was look out your window.......it really wouldn't be all that impossible that the world is flat.

Thankfully, man has done much more than simply look out his window.

As a man, with my own two eyes, I have only ever seen a flat Earth.

No you simply have seen a lack of curvature, which means the Earth is either, flat, very large, or both. From flight times and measurements we know the earth is very large however. So no visible curvature is expected at ground level of the earth is round.

I however have seen ships sink over the horizon, as well as the sun, which prove a round earth.

Occam's razor is properly used as a rule of engineering. As a metric for truth it is devoid of all use as it has been against the grain in such cases in every revolutionary context of advance in knowledge.

Quote

It's a big observation.
Anywhere I will ever go in my life I will see a flat Earth.

Yet there are many observations you can make that prove the world isn't flat.

Sticks and shadows, observing the stars and other celestial bodies in the sky. So on and so forth.

You can see curvature from a plane. You can see pictures and video of earth from space.

You can of course keep your head buried in the same and reject empirical evidence that has existed for a very long time too, if that is your thing.

Show me curvature from a commercial plane, and I will undoubtedly accept a round Earth. Go ahead. 

Quote from: Umurweird on May 04, 2014, 12:05:01 PM

Quote

It's a big observation.
Anywhere I will ever go in my life I will see a flat Earth.

Yet there are many observations you can make that prove the world isn't flat.

Sticks and shadows, observing the stars and other celestial bodies in the sky. So on and so forth.

You can see curvature from a plane. You can see pictures and video of earth from space.

You can of course keep your head buried in the same and reject empirical evidence that has existed for a very long time too, if that is your thing.

Show me curvature from a commercial plane, and I will undoubtedly accept a round Earth. Go ahead. 

It's been done: http://thulescientific.com/Lynch%20Curvature%202008.pdf

Not easy to see at 35,000 feet, but possible under the right conditions. Was routinely observed on the Concorde at 60,000 feet.

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 08, 2014, 01:56:15 PM

Quote from: Umurweird on May 04, 2014, 12:05:01 PM

Quote

It's a big observation.
Anywhere I will ever go in my life I will see a flat Earth.

Yet there are many observations you can make that prove the world isn't flat.

Sticks and shadows, observing the stars and other celestial bodies in the sky. So on and so forth.

You can see curvature from a plane. You can see pictures and video of earth from space.

You can of course keep your head buried in the same and reject empirical evidence that has existed for a very long time too, if that is your thing.

Show me curvature from a commercial plane, and I will undoubtedly accept a round Earth. Go ahead. 

It's been done: http://thulescientific.com/Lynch%20Curvature%202008.pdf

Not easy to see at 35,000 feet, but possible under the right conditions. Was routinely observed on the Concorde at 60,000 feet.

I like how your link goes into detail about barrel distortion.  Why do people try to pass these pictures off as real proof that the Earth is curved? 

Quote from: Shmeggley on June 08, 2014, 02:58:17 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 08, 2014, 01:56:15 PM

Quote from: Umurweird on May 04, 2014, 12:05:01 PM

Quote

It's a big observation.
Anywhere I will ever go in my life I will see a flat Earth.

Yet there are many observations you can make that prove the world isn't flat.

Sticks and shadows, observing the stars and other celestial bodies in the sky. So on and so forth.

You can see curvature from a plane. You can see pictures and video of earth from space.

You can of course keep your head buried in the same and reject empirical evidence that has existed for a very long time too, if that is your thing.

Show me curvature from a commercial plane, and I will undoubtedly accept a round Earth. Go ahead. 

It's been done: http://thulescientific.com/Lynch%20Curvature%202008.pdf

Not easy to see at 35,000 feet, but possible under the right conditions. Was routinely observed on the Concorde at 60,000 feet.

I like how your link goes into detail about barrel distortion.  Why do people try to pass these pictures off as real proof that the Earth is curved?

Nice non sequitur. Of course a discussion of viewing curvature should deal with barrel distortion, it's called being thorough. The paper deals with the topic and then concludes that 35,000ft is the minimum altitude to view curvature. Now do you have any viable objections?

Still haven't seen curvature from a plane.

Still haven't seen curvature from a plane.

For reasons already explained due to the distances involved.

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 08, 2014, 11:59:34 PM

Still haven't seen curvature from a plane.

For reasons already explained due to the distances involved.

wut?
I was referring to Umurweird's post.

Still haven't seen curvature from a plane.

Have you ever been on a plane?

I'm just checking, as this could explain your lack of observation.

Quote from: Shmeggley on June 08, 2014, 02:58:17 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 08, 2014, 01:56:15 PM

Quote from: Umurweird on May 04, 2014, 12:05:01 PM

Quote

It's a big observation.
Anywhere I will ever go in my life I will see a flat Earth.

Yet there are many observations you can make that prove the world isn't flat.

Sticks and shadows, observing the stars and other celestial bodies in the sky. So on and so forth.

You can see curvature from a plane. You can see pictures and video of earth from space.

You can of course keep your head buried in the same and reject empirical evidence that has existed for a very long time too, if that is your thing.

Show me curvature from a commercial plane, and I will undoubtedly accept a round Earth. Go ahead. 

It's been done: http://thulescientific.com/Lynch%20Curvature%202008.pdf

Not easy to see at 35,000 feet, but possible under the right conditions. Was routinely observed on the Concorde at 60,000 feet.

I like how your link goes into detail about barrel distortion.  Why do people try to pass these pictures off as real proof that the Earth is curved?

I like that too. A good experiment identifies sources of error and describes methods used to minimize or eliminate them, like this one does. Since the author has positioned the camera correctly with the horizon in the centre of the frame, how do you explain the fact that he still measured curvature?

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 08, 2014, 11:59:34 PM

Still haven't seen curvature from a plane.

Have you ever been on a plane?

I'm just checking, as this could explain your lack of observation.

Plenty.
I'm just wondering what put the idea in your head that you can see curvature clearly from a commercial aircraft.
Anyone I've ever asked about the subject denies that there's any curvature at all from that height. (Typically 30-35k ft.)
Jimmy, I'm assuming you've been on planes enough to disprove me. Ever take a picture out the window? No? Well then, I'd appreciate if you could refrain from mindlessly insulting me for no reason. Thanks.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again -
What's with the apparent lack of curvature at 100 and 120k ft. if you can clearly and obviously see curvature from as low at 60k ft.?

Quote from: JimmyTheCrab on June 09, 2014, 08:46:41 AM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 08, 2014, 11:59:34 PM

Still haven't seen curvature from a plane.

Have you ever been on a plane?

I'm just checking, as this could explain your lack of observation.

Plenty.
I'm just wondering what put the idea in your head that you can see curvature clearly from a commercial aircraft.
Anyone I've ever asked about the subject denies that there's any curvature at all from that height. (Typically 30-35k ft.)
Jimmy, I'm assuming you've been on planes enough to disprove me. Ever take a picture out the window? No? Well then, I'd appreciate if you could refrain from mindlessly insulting me for no reason. Thanks.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again -
What's with the apparent lack of curvature at 100 and 120k ft. if you can clearly and obviously see curvature from as low at 60k ft.?

Did you read the paper that was posted? They made it very clear that you can see the curve at altitudes much lower than your stated 100k feet.

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 12:21:49 PM

Quote from: JimmyTheCrab on June 09, 2014, 08:46:41 AM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 08, 2014, 11:59:34 PM

Still haven't seen curvature from a plane.

Have you ever been on a plane?

I'm just checking, as this could explain your lack of observation.

Plenty.
I'm just wondering what put the idea in your head that you can see curvature clearly from a commercial aircraft.
Anyone I've ever asked about the subject denies that there's any curvature at all from that height. (Typically 30-35k ft.)
Jimmy, I'm assuming you've been on planes enough to disprove me. Ever take a picture out the window? No? Well then, I'd appreciate if you could refrain from mindlessly insulting me for no reason. Thanks.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again -
What's with the apparent lack of curvature at 100 and 120k ft. if you can clearly and obviously see curvature from as low at 60k ft.?

Did you read the paper that was posted? They made it very clear that you can see the curve at altitudes much lower than your stated 100k feet.

I read the paper, sure.
I still haven't seen curvature from a plane, ever.
I still have seen balloons carry cameras up to 100,000 feet with no horribly noticeable curvature.
What am I to do when one paper one guy wrote once conflicts reality and everyday observation?

Quote from: JimmyTheCrab on June 09, 2014, 08:46:41 AM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 08, 2014, 11:59:34 PM

Still haven't seen curvature from a plane.

Have you ever been on a plane?

I'm just checking, as this could explain your lack of observation.

Plenty.
I'm just wondering what put the idea in your head that you can see curvature clearly from a commercial aircraft.

Where did I ever claim that?  Of course you cannot see curvature clearly from a commercial airline.  Concorde might have been a different matter.

Id appreciate if you could refrain from mindlessly insulting me for no reason. Thanks.

I'd never mindlessly insult you dear friend.  Any insults will be carefully measured ones.

What's with the apparent lack of curvature at 100 and 120k ft. if you can clearly and obviously see curvature from as low at 60k ft.?

I've no idea what you are referring to.

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 12:21:49 PM

Quote from: JimmyTheCrab on June 09, 2014, 08:46:41 AM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 08, 2014, 11:59:34 PM

Still haven't seen curvature from a plane.

Have you ever been on a plane?

I'm just checking, as this could explain your lack of observation.

Plenty.
I'm just wondering what put the idea in your head that you can see curvature clearly from a commercial aircraft.

Where did I ever claim that?  Of course you cannot see curvature clearly from a commercial airline.  Concorde might have been a different matter.

Quote

Id appreciate if you could refrain from mindlessly insulting me for no reason. Thanks.

I'd never mindlessly insult you dear friend.  Any insults will be carefully measured ones.

Quote

What's with the apparent lack of curvature at 100 and 120k ft. if you can clearly and obviously see curvature from as low at 60k ft.?

I've no idea what you are referring to.

Well, you asked me if I'd ever been on a plane. Did you mean Concorde? 
Are you admitting that you can't see curvature from a commercial plane? Or is it just my

lack of observation

?
I'm referring to the apparent lack of curvature at much, much higher altitudes that I've seen.

I, personally, have seen curvature at 48k feet.

That is reality.

I, personally, have seen curvature at 48k feet.

That is reality.

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, on withdraw your argument.

Quote from: evildylan on June 09, 2014, 01:52:12 PM

I, personally, have seen curvature at 48k feet.

That is reality.

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, on withdraw your argument.

He didn't claim to have any pictures.

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 07:55:57 PM

Quote from: evildylan on June 09, 2014, 01:52:12 PM

I, personally, have seen curvature at 48k feet.

That is reality.

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, on withdraw your argument.

He didn't claim to have any pictures.

Thank you for reinforcing my point.

Quote from: JimmyTheCrab on June 10, 2014, 12:55:11 AM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 07:55:57 PM

Quote from: evildylan on June 09, 2014, 01:52:12 PM

I, personally, have seen curvature at 48k feet.

That is reality.

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, on withdraw your argument.

He didn't claim to have any pictures.

Thank you for reinforcing my point.

No idea what your point is.

evildylan  made an observation and reported it here.  You can't get much more Zetetic than that, can you?

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 10, 2014, 02:22:33 AM

Quote from: JimmyTheCrab on June 10, 2014, 12:55:11 AM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 07:55:57 PM

Quote from: evildylan on June 09, 2014, 01:52:12 PM

I, personally, have seen curvature at 48k feet.

That is reality.

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, on withdraw your argument.

He didn't claim to have any pictures.

Thank you for reinforcing my point.

No idea what your point is.

evildylan  made an observation and reported it here.  You can't get much more Zetetic than that, can you?

Jimmy speaks the truth.

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, or withdraw your argument.

So far, I've provided a picture that substantiates my claim.
So far, evildylan has not.
Maybe you thought the horizon was curved in the airplanes, just like markjo thought the horizon was curved on the top of mount Everest.

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 07:55:57 PM

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, or withdraw your argument.

So far, I've provided a picture that substantiates my claim.
So far, evildylan has not.
Maybe you thought the horizon was curved in the airplanes, just like markjo thought the horizon was curved on the top of mount Everest.

You have a picture, I have my own eyes backed up by a scientific paper that has facts and math to supplement what I saw. There are also hundreds of pictures out there that show a curved planet from altitude. I'd say I have the upper hand in this discussion.

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 10, 2014, 12:24:39 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 07:55:57 PM

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, or withdraw your argument.

So far, I've provided a picture that substantiates my claim.
So far, evildylan has not.
Maybe you thought the horizon was curved in the airplanes, just like markjo thought the horizon was curved on the top of mount Everest.

You have a picture, I have my own eyes backed up by a scientific paper that has facts and math to supplement what I saw. There are also hundreds of pictures out there that show a curved planet from altitude. I'd say I have the upper hand in this discussion.

Well, if you have the upper hand, I'm sure you could easily find one of these thousands of pictures that show a curved Earth from that altitude.
Right?

And once again, this is the internet. You're not innocent until proven guilty here, it's the other way around.
Pics or it didn't happen.

Quote from: evildylan on June 10, 2014, 12:36:14 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 10, 2014, 12:24:39 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 07:55:57 PM

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, or withdraw your argument.

So far, I've provided a picture that substantiates my claim.
So far, evildylan has not.
Maybe you thought the horizon was curved in the airplanes, just like markjo thought the horizon was curved on the top of mount Everest.

You have a picture, I have my own eyes backed up by a scientific paper that has facts and math to supplement what I saw. There are also hundreds of pictures out there that show a curved planet from altitude. I'd say I have the upper hand in this discussion.

Well, if you have the upper hand, I'm sure you could easily find one of these thousands of pictures that show a curved Earth from that altitude.
Right?

And once again, this is the internet. You're not innocent until proven guilty here, it's the other way around.
Pics or it didn't happen.

" class="bbc_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_609662&feature=iv&hd=1&src_vid=izIClWYKK1o&v=rApXqj6WS2E


In fact, go see it for yourself.


http://www.space-affairs.com/


MIG-29UB "Fulcrum" 'To The Edge Of Space' flight program - ca. 40 - 45 min flight time

    Climbing to a absolute altitude of max 72.400ft (max 23km - depending on weather conditions)
    During the ascent supersonic flight between MACH 1.6 and 2.0
    G-Force attraction during the flight between max. 5 and 7g
    Own flight equipment (helmet, g-force suit, overall, oxygen mask, rescue device, communication equipment, complete weather clothing)
    Photography/HD-Video Service (will delivered 2 - 3 weeks after the event on DVD or online download)
    Medical preliminary investigation from a flight surgeon at the airbase
    Transportation at Niszhny Novgorod, pick up at your hotel and back to your hotel
    Personal guide/translator (english/french/spanish/german) on the Sokol Airbase
    Briefing before and after your flight with your pilot
    Personal certificate from your completed MIG-29 jetflight

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 10, 2014, 12:40:14 PM

Quote from: evildylan on June 10, 2014, 12:36:14 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 10, 2014, 12:24:39 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 07:55:57 PM

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, or withdraw your argument.

So far, I've provided a picture that substantiates my claim.
So far, evildylan has not.
Maybe you thought the horizon was curved in the airplanes, just like markjo thought the horizon was curved on the top of mount Everest.

You have a picture, I have my own eyes backed up by a scientific paper that has facts and math to supplement what I saw. There are also hundreds of pictures out there that show a curved planet from altitude. I'd say I have the upper hand in this discussion.

Well, if you have the upper hand, I'm sure you could easily find one of these thousands of pictures that show a curved Earth from that altitude.
Right?

And once again, this is the internet. You're not innocent until proven guilty here, it's the other way around.
Pics or it didn't happen.

" class="bbc_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_609662&feature=iv&hd=1&src_vid=izIClWYKK1o&v=rApXqj6WS2E

@~50,000 ft.


We can go back and forth like this all day.
Besides, a commercial aircraft would only very rarely surpass 40,000 ft., so your argument is kind of bunk by your own doing.

Quote from: evildylan on June 10, 2014, 12:49:43 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 10, 2014, 12:40:14 PM

Quote from: evildylan on June 10, 2014, 12:36:14 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 10, 2014, 12:24:39 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 07:55:57 PM

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, or withdraw your argument.

So far, I've provided a picture that substantiates my claim.
So far, evildylan has not.
Maybe you thought the horizon was curved in the airplanes, just like markjo thought the horizon was curved on the top of mount Everest.

You have a picture, I have my own eyes backed up by a scientific paper that has facts and math to supplement what I saw. There are also hundreds of pictures out there that show a curved planet from altitude. I'd say I have the upper hand in this discussion.

Well, if you have the upper hand, I'm sure you could easily find one of these thousands of pictures that show a curved Earth from that altitude.
Right?

And once again, this is the internet. You're not innocent until proven guilty here, it's the other way around.
Pics or it didn't happen.

" class="bbc_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_609662&feature=iv&hd=1&src_vid=izIClWYKK1o&v=rApXqj6WS2E

@~50,000 ft.


We can go back and forth like this all day.
Besides, a commercial aircraft would only very rarely surpass 40,000 ft., so your argument is kind of bunk by your own doing.

Your fault for assuming I was on a commercial aircraft, I wasn't.

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 10, 2014, 12:54:12 PM

Quote from: evildylan on June 10, 2014, 12:49:43 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 10, 2014, 12:40:14 PM

Quote from: evildylan on June 10, 2014, 12:36:14 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 10, 2014, 12:24:39 PM

Quote from: th3rm0m3t3r0 on June 09, 2014, 07:55:57 PM

This is the internet.
Post the pictures and see if they stand up to scrutiny, or withdraw your argument.

So far, I've provided a picture that substantiates my claim.
So far, evildylan has not.
Maybe you thought the horizon was curved in the airplanes, just like markjo thought the horizon was curved on the top of mount Everest.

You have a picture, I have my own eyes backed up by a scientific paper that has facts and math to supplement what I saw. There are also hundreds of pictures out there that show a curved planet from altitude. I'd say I have the upper hand in this discussion.

Well, if you have the upper hand, I'm sure you could easily find one of these thousands of pictures that show a curved Earth from that altitude.
Right?

And once again, this is the internet. You're not innocent until proven guilty here, it's the other way around.
Pics or it didn't happen.

" class="bbc_link" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_609662&feature=iv&hd=1&src_vid=izIClWYKK1o&v=rApXqj6WS2E

@~50,000 ft.


We can go back and forth like this all day.
Besides, a commercial aircraft would only very rarely surpass 40,000 ft., so your argument is kind of bunk by your own doing.

Your fault for assuming I was on a commercial aircraft, I wasn't.

Well, my 2nd picture has been posted, both pictures I've posted depict a lack of significant curvature at 50-100k ft...
Again, pics or it didn't happen.