This sort of surface level refraction is well known in surveying.
Refraction isn't some weird theoretical voodoo like Superstrings - it's the physical phenomena that makes spectacles work.
Refractive index of air depends on temperature. On a still day, you can get quite a temperature gradient in the few feet above the ground or above water, and that will play tricks with your line of sight. Surveyors routinely need to account for this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bedford_Level_experimentNotice that repeats of the experiment sighting at water level produce Earth curvature measurements anywhere between that expected values &
concave, depending on atmospheric conditions.
Notice also from the Wiki article that until photos of Earth from space, a
properly performed Bedford Levels experiment was used in textbooks to demonstrate the curvature of the planet