meteorology

Forecasting Hurricane Routes

Once a hurricane has formed, it can be tracked.  Scientists can usually predict its path for 3-5 days in advance.  A hurricane’s possible trajectory is usually represented as a cone, which shrinks over time as the error in the prediction decreases.  To predict the path of these storms, meteorologists can use many different models.  The original best model was CLIPER (Climate and Persistence).  It is designed as a statistical regression equation based on past data and current climatological data.  This was the major forecasting model used up until the 1980’s.  Today it is used primarily for testing and comparing new models.  NHC90 and BAM (Beta and Advection Model) are two models based on data gathered by planes.  They use measurements taken multiple times in a day, and the models themselves are updated every couple of years.  The National Hurricane Center relies heavily on two different international forecasting systems, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office’s global model and the United States Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Predictions Systems (NOAA, 2004).  There are many more models used.  This list includes only several of the major, most common models used to forecast the movement of storm systems.

so they use aircraft, but they also claim to use satellites. are all the weather forecasters in on the conspiracy too?

but I don't think a radio tower could see and accurately predict hurricane Sandy.

Quote from: burdenofproof on November 07, 2012, 08:42:50 PM

but I don't think a radio tower could see and accurately predict hurricane Sandy.

What do radio towers have to do with it?

Where do the meteorologists get their signals from, if not satellites?

Quote from: ThinkingMan on November 08, 2012, 07:58:18 AM

Quote from: burdenofproof on November 07, 2012, 08:42:50 PM

but I don't think a radio tower could see and accurately predict hurricane Sandy.

What do radio towers have to do with it?

Where do the meteorologists get their signals from, if not satellites?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doppler_radar

the radio tower thing was sarcasm.. but ok, doppler radar makes sense. so are weathermen part of the conspiracy as well?

I'm not certain we're on the same page, so before I go on, can we agree that:

A. Meteorologists CLAIM to use satellites to aid in their predictions.

B. they don't actually use satellites, they use Doppler radar to track storms.

C.Doppler radar works this way, essentially: send a signal towards a storm. It will bounce back. Voila, you know where the storm is.

You claimed that one cannot predict weather without satellites

Quote from: Irushwithscvs on November 08, 2012, 07:36:00 PM

You claimed that one cannot predict weather without satellites

I have been a member of this site for about three days, with about 7 or so hours logged. I enjoy the mental stimulation as well as a good debate. I have learned that FE is a valid theory (with a few stipulations of course) that should at least be glanced at by the general public. I have also acquired information about the physics model I subscribe to. Based on that, I draw the conclusion that time spent here is not time wasted.

However, there is one user in particular who seems to be a combination of every negative aspect on this site all wrapped up into one entity. That user is Irushwithscvs. Examples:

1. Blatant lying, as exemplified in the quote.

2. Relentless opposition to evidence with credible sources (even on topics not critical to proving FE or RE

3. Trolling

4. Ignorance of previous posts in a thread.

5. Irrelevant technical jargon.

6. Resorting to subtle slanderous comments in what was at one point a civilized discussion.

7. Quickly altering his stance without telling you and explaining why, resulting in lots of confusion.

Source: Irushwithscvs post history

... To name but a few. I don't care if this gets thrown into the angry rants section or whatever, at least that means a mod sees what I'm sure at least a small portion of the user base thinks. Honestly, his presence makes my overall experience visiting this site slightly worse every time I'm here. Besides all that, he's just.. Annoying to discuss with. I have a special voice I use in my head for his posts. It's a highly irritating voice.

My request is this. Don't respond to my questions. I'm sure there's an FEer out there who can express your opinions in a much more suitable manner.

Somebody on this site once said to me something along the lines of "he'll drive you crazy over time if you let him.". I thought "No way, it's the Internet lol". I was wrong... And it only took three days. That's gotta be a high score for you or something.

That's all.

This is a highly biased forum and the mods will admit it. Rushy just happens to be one of their favorites.

Quote from: burdenofproof on November 08, 2012, 09:04:22 PM

Quote from: Irushwithscvs on November 08, 2012, 07:36:00 PM

You claimed that one cannot predict weather without satellites

I have been a member of this site for about three days, with about 7 or so hours logged. I enjoy the mental stimulation as well as a good debate. I have learned that FE is a valid theory (with a few stipulations of course) that should at least be glanced at by the general public. I have also acquired information about the physics model I subscribe to. Based on that, I draw the conclusion that time spent here is not time wasted.

However, there is one user in particular who seems to be a combination of every negative aspect on this site all wrapped up into one entity. That user is Irushwithscvs. Examples:

1. Blatant lying, as exemplified in the quote.

2. Relentless opposition to evidence with credible sources (even on topics not critical to proving FE or RE

3. Trolling

4. Ignorance of previous posts in a thread.

5. Irrelevant technical jargon.

6. Resorting to subtle slanderous comments in what was at one point a civilized discussion.

7. Quickly altering his stance without telling you and explaining why, resulting in lots of confusion.

Source: Irushwithscvs post history

... To name but a few. I don't care if this gets thrown into the angry rants section or whatever, at least that means a mod sees what I'm sure at least a small portion of the user base thinks. Honestly, his presence makes my overall experience visiting this site slightly worse every time I'm here. Besides all that, he's just.. Annoying to discuss with. I have a special voice I use in my head for his posts. It's a highly irritating voice.

My request is this. Don't respond to my questions. I'm sure there's an FEer out there who can express your opinions in a much more suitable manner.

Somebody on this site once said to me something along the lines of "he'll drive you crazy over time if you let him.". I thought "No way, it's the Internet lol". I was wrong... And it only took three days. That's gotta be a high score for you or something.

That's all.

Hey! That was me that said that to you! You should put this in suggestions and concerns. But honestly, if you're not an FEer, the mods will not do anything about it. And even then, the mods have their favorites. This is a highly biased forum and the mods will admit it. Rushy just happens to be one of their favorites.

Feel free to lodge a complaint, of course, but remember that you are also allowed to argue the way he does if you feel the urge.

Quote from: Tausami on November 09, 2012, 10:14:27 AM

Feel free to lodge a complaint, of course, but remember that you are also allowed to argue the way he does if you feel the urge.

So the mods also believe that one cannot predict weather without satellites? Why are the mods so illiterate then? It was shown to be incorrect.

Quote from: snafu38a on November 09, 2012, 08:11:35 PM

Quote from: Tausami on November 09, 2012, 10:14:27 AM

Feel free to lodge a complaint, of course, but remember that you are also allowed to argue the way he does if you feel the urge.

So the mods also believe that one cannot predict weather without satellites? Why are the mods so illiterate then? It was shown to be incorrect.

He did not say that he agrees with irush, he said that irush and everyone else, including you, are free to argue in any way that you wish to, as long as you stay within the rules of the forum in which you are arguing.

Quote from: jroa on November 09, 2012, 10:46:37 PM

Quote from: snafu38a on November 09, 2012, 08:11:35 PM

Quote from: Tausami on November 09, 2012, 10:14:27 AM

Feel free to lodge a complaint, of course, but remember that you are also allowed to argue the way he does if you feel the urge.

So the mods also believe that one cannot predict weather without satellites? Why are the mods so illiterate then? It was shown to be incorrect.

He did not say that he agrees with irush, he said that irush and everyone else, including you, are free to argue in any way that you wish to, as long as you stay within the rules of the forum in which you are arguing.

That was my joke. You cannot argue by simply pretending the other person said something and refuting it as rush did.

Glad you all settled that. What Ive been wondering ever since I first discovered the FE forum is this (& perhaps it is also part of burdenofproofs point/query).

Besides just the meteorologists, how is it that the majority of (mainstream) scientists, dating back hundreds of years, decided/discovered (through much scientific inquiry) that the earth is spherical? Where talking about smart people here. Some beyond smart and some genius!

This is not to say that FE believers do not have intelligent and scientific minds amongst you but the question remains .. how were, and how are, so many people so easily fooled by a RE conspiracy and how could such a wide-spread and long standing conspiracy hold together and prevent mainstream scientists from ever discovering the truth for themselves? Surely someone of note, and the balls to contradict such a widely held belief as a spherical earth, would have seen that its all wrong and stood up to say something by now? To me it sounds as if this conspiracy must be far greater and more devious than any other believed to exist.

I understand that your everyday man might not feel the need to question the nature of the world around them, but there are so many people who dedicate their entire lives to discovering the "truth" through hard science, through specific branches of science like meteorology and many others that are all interlinked by logic and reason as well as straight-forward observation.

It seems to me that to entirely dismiss the notion of a spherical earth and the forces that act within and around it (such as gravitation), is to also dismiss a very large section of the other areas of science as well. I respect FE theorists for the effort though.