Linux is dying and other answers to the universe.

First as I said, I filtered for games. That reduces instances of wow for anything other than games. People don;t search for wow shoes do they? Those wow's are for people looking for world of warcraft.

Ah, I wasn't paying attention. Ignore the 'erroneous data' comment, then.

Secondly, it does not show subscribers. Its shows people's interest. People are less interested. They search it less, they read about it less. I am less interested in FES than I was when I first got here. But I still 'subscribe'. Of course one day my interest will fall to the point where I stop.
What I am trying to show is that the general feeling is less enthusiasm for wow, but it hasn't always been that way. There may be other factors I have not included, but I feel confident I have the main reasons. Subscriber losses will lag interest of course. You lose interest but you still have your subscription.

I know it doesn't show subscribers, that's the point. If increases in search interest correlated with more people using something (and vice versa), then the graph of subscribers (which you have shown) would not be so different to the search trends of 'wow' and 'world of warcraft'.

@Dave- No. Its about interest. So you can go straight to debian? So what? Its do you read about debian? Do you look to find out about the next release, do you look for apps or fixes for debian. do you read about debian bugs or debian improvements? How do people get all that info? For the most part, they google it. Its called google trends, it shows trends. The trends for linux look bad. Sorry, but they do. Unlike wow I can't findan explanation and I am trying. Linux seems to be on the slide.

@Vindictus. Interest is key. It shows who is buying subscriptions and likely to do so next time.

I will stick my neck out. If you can find graphs of wow active players, I'll bet that is exactly as google forecasts. Subscribers is a fudged number to make wow seem popular. No one wants to see 1 million people went missing.

@Dave- No. Its about interest. So you can go straight to debian? So what? Its do you read about debian? Do you look to find out about the next release, do you look for apps or fixes for debian. do you read about debian bugs or debian improvements? How do people get all that info? For the most part, they google it. Its called google trends, it shows trends. The trends for linux look bad. Sorry, but they do. Unlike wow I can't findan explanation and I am trying. Linux seems to be on the slide.

Or they can go to the many available rss feeds, forums, etc.... to get their information.  I don't go to google to get the latest Debian information, I come here and ask Parsifal.

Wow, those Indians are perverts.

You'd think it takes a special mind to Google the word "sex" and that alone.

@Dave- No. Its about interest. So you can go straight to debian? So what? Its do you read about debian? Do you look to find out about the next release, do you look for apps or fixes for debian. do you read about debian bugs or debian improvements? How do people get all that info? For the most part, they google it. Its called google trends, it shows trends. The trends for linux look bad. Sorry, but they do. Unlike wow I can't findan explanation and I am trying. Linux seems to be on the slide.

You are accustomed to the Windows user mindset. The way most Debian users -- and I'm talking power users here, the kind of people who would care about the stuff you just said -- find out that kind of information from mailing lists, Identi.ca, various blogs on the subject, and as Lorddave pointed out, RSS feeds and forums. If you aren't a power user, you find out about "apps" and "fixes" through whichever frontend for the package manager you use to install software and get updates. Google is generally only used for finding support for problems or questions you can't solve yourself, or obscure issues that don't have an obvious source of information.

Having said that, I did manage to find a Linux-related search that has seen steady, fast-paced growth since 2007, and is already nearly half as searched-for as Windows:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=android,windows

@Dave- No. Its about interest. So you can go straight to debian? So what? Its do you read about debian? Do you look to find out about the next release, do you look for apps or fixes for debian. do you read about debian bugs or debian improvements? How do people get all that info? For the most part, they google it. Its called google trends, it shows trends. The trends for linux look bad. Sorry, but they do. Unlike wow I can't findan explanation and I am trying. Linux seems to be on the slide.

@Vindictus. Interest is key. It shows who is buying subscriptions and likely to do so next time.

I will stick my neck out. If you can find graphs of wow active players, I'll bet that is exactly as google forecasts. Subscribers is a fudged number to make wow seem popular. No one wants to see 1 million people went missing.

It's not. The graph of active subscribers you linked is the closest you'll get to 'active subscribers', as that's what the graph shows; people actively paying money for a subscription. I'm well aware of Warcraft's subscriber count, as I've been involved with the game for a long time, and bragging the subscriber count became a common occurrence. Recently, they've lost around ~1million active subscribers.

Either way, the graph of active subscribers does not match the search trends of 'wow' and 'world of warcraft'.

I don't think the released figures for wow are correct. Articles I linked indeed show a peak in 2008. I think wow has been 'gaming' the numbers for some time.
It is interesting you picked wow because it is another example without cast iron quantification. Like linux, user numbers are fudged by people who want it to seem more popular than it is. Depending on where you look, people claim linux holds anything upto 10% of market share. But regularly you will see articles saying they finally broke 1%. In other words no one has a clue. Google Trends could be a good way to see through all the murk and propaganda. When mapped against users etc for things like bebo, and myface the numbers are deadly accurate.
The point of this thread is you may now have a tool to see what is going on.

Androids' popularity is growing. Of that I will happily concede. It looks to have a bright future. Linux as a desktop OS however does not.

Androids' popularity is growing. Of that I will happily concede. It looks to have a bright future.

So Linux isn't dying. Thank you for conceding the point.

Android seems to be doing well. I am happy to note your observation. People seem to love their android phones.

Debian, Ubuntu, BSD and linux in general are going to way of the dodo.

Blizzard has little reason to lie, and you can see the behemoth of the game in its forum community and sheer amount of servers. Also, as I've said, they have been shamelessly posting a steady decline in active subscribers of late (of which, I am one).

As for the Linux thing, you may have gotten confused between private use of Linux and corporate use. Linux is used, very commonly, as a server OS, which you probably knew. Again, I see little reason for people to pretend Linux has a large user base. An MMORPG is more cool if more people play it because it's a game based around its community, but Linux? Not the same at all. You either have a use for it, or you don't.

http://broadcast.oreilly.com/2010/09/debunking-the-1-myth.html
Read what this lying bitch has to say. It is typical of Linux fanboyism. No one knows the real numbers. I am saying the trends suggest it is not looking so good.

Thork, why do you hate Linux so? I understand hatred of Windows, but Linux? Why the penguin?

Its not linux as a product or linux as a brand I dislike. Its people with rose-tinted glasses or worse still and agenda, telling you something is better than it is I can't abide.
I had to reload my laptop with software and didn't have MS office to hand. So I loaded on Open office. Its not as good as MS office. Its not even close. That's fine. It opens spreadsheets and lets me do basic things with it. Its free as in beer, not free as in worthless. But when I read articles about how its better than MS office or equal in every way, that annoys me. Its crap, written by people who like something and in order to get me to like or try it, they lie to me about it. Linux is built on lies. The numbers are hyped by all those who care. All those who don't, don't even comment. As a consumer I want honest open information. So when I find someone is lying to me about something, I find that a major turn off. It is the single biggest turn off I have for linux. Well that and the fact people are abandoning it in their droves.

Better is a relative term. Anything can be better than anything else provided that's what you want. If you don't like a lot of features, openOffice is better.
And Ubuntu is more efficient and requires less resources than windows 7 so it's ideal for the low power netbooks. I've seen windows 7 on netbooks and while a fresh install works alright, it's not something I'd like to use for anything beyond web surfing and typing up documents.

Android seems to be doing well. I am happy to note your observation. People seem to love their android phones.

Debian, Ubuntu, BSD and linux in general are going to way of the dodo.

It is not possible for Android to be doing well and Linux to be dying at the same time.

But is Ubuntu better than Windows 7? I mean, for the average man in the street. Is he going to want a stripped out OS that needs a level of competence to update, upgrade, maintain and often even use? Or is he going to want a 'bloated' OS where everything is already laid on. No brain required.
Yes windows has viruses and falls over and does things to piss people off. But it is superior to everything else. It just is. Microsoft have poured billions into its development for almost 30 years. No OS has had as much time, money or corporate muscle put into it. Of course its the best. Microsoft can recruit and pay the worlds best programmers. 1000's of them. Linux could never rival it. Ever. Its stupid to consider it ever could. I would bet Microsoft have the resource to build a new OS from scratch to the standard of Ubuntu in under a month. I honestly think that is the kind of power they hold, and the quality of their product. The thing for Windows is it tries to be all things to all men. And for that, its hard to imagine anything better. It isn't tailor made for anyone, but absolutely anyone can use it. Not so with Linux.
I don't think Linux is winning market share. The future of home computing is not knowing how your computer works and being able to sort it out when it f's up. The future is an OS that does everything anyone could wish, and can be used by an idiot or meaningfully by a genius. People don't want to know how their computer does things. They just want to use it for doing them.

Quote from: Thork on September 22, 2011, 02:57:54 AM

Android seems to be doing well. I am happy to note your observation. People seem to love their android phones.

Debian, Ubuntu, BSD and linux in general are going to way of the dodo.

It is not possible for Android to be doing well and Linux to be dying at the same time.

Ok, Linux is evolving. It is becoming a phone OS. That is its future. You read it here first. Unless of course Microsoft and Apple smash the hell out of it with similar products in which case it will go back to dying.

But is Ubuntu better than Windows 7? I mean, for the average man in the street. Is he going to want a stripped out OS that needs a level of competence to update, upgrade, maintain and often even use? Or is he going to want a 'bloated' OS where everything is already laid on. No brain required.

Both Ubuntu and Windows 7 meet the latter description, even down to the bloat.

Yes windows has viruses and falls over and does things to piss people off. But it is superior to everything else. It just is.

Incorrect.

Microsoft have poured billions into its development for almost 30 years.

Irrelevant, and if we're talking strictly about Windows as it exists today, also incorrect.

No OS has had as much time, money or corporate muscle put into it.

Time, incorrect. Money and corporate muscle, irrelevant.

Of course its the best. Microsoft can recruit and pay the worlds best programmers. 1000's of them. Linux could never rival it. Ever. Its stupid to consider it ever could.

It's even stupider that it does.

I would bet Microsoft have the resource to build a new OS from scratch to the standard of Ubuntu in under a month. I honestly think that is the kind of power they hold, and the quality of their product.

You can bet whatever you like, it doesn't make it true. Just don't develop a gambling habit, mkay?

The thing for Windows is it tries to be all things to all men. And for that, its hard to imagine anything better. It isn't tailor made for anyone, but absolutely anyone can use it. Not so with Linux.

Incorrect.

I don't think Linux is winning market share. The future of home computing is not knowing how your computer works and being able to sort it out when it f's up. The future is an OS that does everything anyone could wish, and can be used by an idiot or meaningfully by a genius. People don't want to know how their computer does things. They just want to use it for doing them.

Most people don't; some people do. There exist distributions of GNU/Linux to satisfy each group of people. Windows only satisfies the first one.

Ok, Linux is evolving. It is becoming a phone OS. That is its future. You read it here first. Unless of course Microsoft and Apple smash the hell out of it with similar products in which case it will go back to dying.

Linux is becoming an OS?

I would bet Microsoft have the resource to build a new OS from scratch to the standard of Ubuntu in under a month.

The fact that Microsoft hasn't should be telling.

Also, is this how a Linux company dies?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Red-Hat-Reports-Second-bw-474607315.html?x=0&.v=1

RALEIGH, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE:RHT - News), the world's leading provider of open source solutions, today announced financial results for its fiscal year 2012 second quarter ended August 31, 2011.
 Total revenue for the quarter was $281.3 million, an increase of 28% from the year ago quarter. Subscription revenue for the quarter was $238.3 million, up 28% year-over-year.

Quote from: Thork on September 22, 2011, 03:54:26 AM

I would bet Microsoft have the resource to build a new OS from scratch to the standard of Ubuntu in under a month.

The fact that Microsoft hasn't should be telling.

It tells me opensource is not a market they are interested in.

Consider what Google Trends says about Red Hat interest.

I chose two search terms so there is no confusion it is looking at people wanting red hats.

Now consider the number of downloads of Red Hat.

(Click for source)

Also, is this how a Linux company dies?

It is exactly how a company dies. When its customers lose interest in the products, its f*cked. Just because they have made more money out of it as of late, does not mean their userbase is growing.

Now consider the number of downloads of Red Hat.

Compare that with its most significant commercial competitor in recent years:


Also, note that these statistics are based on polling of servers, making them irrelevant to your emphasis of Linux dying out on the desktop. They are not, as you suggest, the "number of downloads" of the OS.

If you would like an account on my server to upload images to without uploading them to TinyPic (protip: TinyPic will delete them automatically after some period of time and your post will be left with "this image has been moved or deleted" in it, or worse, someone else's newly uploaded image), you need only ask. That is, if you can stand having your images hosted on a server that runs Linux.

Also, I note that you have ignored my previous post.

Here is the Windows graph.  I guess it means that people are loosing interest in Windows too.



Your whole argument is flawed from the start.  Just because people are not searching Google for something does not mean there is not interest.  When new releases come out for any of the Linux distros, the searches don't spike because people already know where to go.  Why would I search for the new Fedora release when I have been to their website many times?  Does that mean that I do not have interest in Fedora, so I do not perform searches?  No, it means that I just go to the site and download the newest version, which I will admit stinks because I can not stand Gnome 3, but that is beside the point.

It sounds like you just have something against Linux in general.  Many people love it, the freedom, the ability to infinitely customize their OS, the fact that it is free, the fact that it is not rammed down your throat.

Others like Windows or OS X.  But, there is one thing that can't be denied, there are way more Unix variant operating systems running the servers that you visit every day on the internet than there are Windows servers.  Whether we are talking about Unix itself, or Linux, or BSD, or OS X (although I do not think that OS X has much of the server market share).

Ahhh, a linux fanboy. First, when new releases come out, the graphs do spike. You can see exactly when all releases come out. So you are mistaken.

Please consider Fedora.

Click for source

Or Debian which releases less often

Click for source

Now look at Ubuntu

Click for source

You can see it spiking at release times as people look for the new release, albeit in smaller and smaller numbers. Now the interesting thing is when I compare this to people actually going to Ubuntu.com to download it, you can see the exact same shape.
This last graph is different. Its not based on search terms. Its based on people actually going to Ubuntu.com.

Click for source *Note you need to be signed into a Google account to get the user figures. Annoyingly web figures only go back as far as 2009.

So we can see at the peak of its power Ubuntu.com was being visited by over half a million people a day. Now they will be lucky if 100k visitors a day visit for the next release. I might almost extrapolate that the next release may well be the last.

As for the windows graph, it tells the tale. XP was wildly successful. Vista not so much. Windows 7 has been an improvement. The numbers stay roughly the same because almost everyone is using it already.

These are hard numbers. Not plucked out of the arse of Linus Torvald or some journalist with a boner for tweed and elbow patches. Linux is dying, because people are losing interest in it. There will always be the die hards, but they are quietly slipping away. And that will eventually kill it. And do not tell me linux was not rammed down people's throats. People like you jump up and down and make a disproportionate amount of noise about how wonderful linux is. Linux users regularly flame people on the internet, not sure themselves if that warm moist feeling is smugness or yet more urine soaking into their corduroys.

So you go straight to Fedora? So what? How many other people do that and what is the trend?

Click for source. Again you need to be logged in to a Google account to view the actual figures.

Not as wildly popular as they would have you believe is it? And the trend? Extinction. As for Unix, I have shown the trends for that already. Unix is as dead as linux.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=Charlie+Sheen

Wow, Charlie Sheen's career has really picked up in recent months!

People are interested in him now he is crazy.
Google trends is bloody fascinating. You can see when earthquakes happen, when it snows, when people get ill, who they want to read about on x factor.

You can see Call Of Duty is going to smash the hell out of Gears Of War and Fifa 12 this xmas.
Games interest
Unfortunately the bookies have the odds as so
Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (1/19), FIFA 12 (8), Gears Of War 3 (10)

1/19. ffs! Its not worth the walk to the bookmakers. I have yet to find a way to use google trends for evil, but when I do Muhahahahaha!

You have no way to post statistics about how many people are using *nix compared to Windows.  Looking at search engine results only tells you how many people were curious to search for the term Linux.  It does not tell how many people are running the operating system on their computers.  Also, the trend of the number of downloads also does not tell an accurate story about the interest of *nix because some people are using it but not upgrading, some are downloading but then choose to download and use a different distro, and, some are downloading and then making copies to distribute to others so they do not need to download.  That is the beauty of this operating system.  Since there are, in general, no constraints about what you can do with it, there is also no way to accurately track it. 

Also, many people use Linux without even knowing it.  Android = Linux.  XBox = Linux.  Many consumer electronics, such as electronic organs and even microwave ovens = Linux.  Most routers = Linux.  How can you say it is dying?  What has Windows running it besides desktops, a small amount of servers, and a few failed cell phones they tried to push on us?

Why is it that many countries are moving in a direction that forbids Windows from being run on any government owned computer?  It is because the Linux kernel, as well as BSD, are open source and available for scrutiny, unlike Windows or OS X.  Anyone can look over the code, decide what the do and do not like, and then create their own version that only has what they want inside of it.

My last point is that Linux and BSD will never die.  My reasoning for this is that they are free, as in beer but also as in freedom, and many people will always want that.  You will always have a large group of people who will use Windows because that is what they used at school and that is what their computer came with, not realizing that they paid a lot more for the computer because of the operating system.  But, there will always be people who want a free operating system, or one that they can analyze to see what the code is, or one that allows almost infinite customization compared to Windows.

You have no way to post statistics about how many people are using *nix compared to Windows.

Pick any product or company you like. Then find an example of its success defying the google trends. Linux has been around a long time. There will be no 'year of the linux desktop'. People aren't interested in it. They aren't looking to read articles about it. They aren't looking to see when the next update is out. They aren't looking for bug fixes and tips and apps and plugins etc. They aren't using it. Linux always hides behind its difficulty in nailing down numbers. Now we can see why. Because its been having a very hard time.

Looking at search engine results only tells you how many people were curious to search for the term Linux.  It does not tell how many people are running the operating system on their computers.

If new people aren't interested in it, it won't grow. That's its problem. It isn't and hasn't for a long time, been attracting new users. The linux club made itself out to be exclusive. But sadly no one else gave a sh*t and that inaccessibility to the man in the street will be its undoing.

Also, many people use Linux without even knowing it.  Android = Linux.  XBox = Linux.  Many consumer electronics, such as electronic organs and even microwave ovens = Linux.  Most routers = Linux.  How can you say it is dying?  What has Windows running it besides desktops, a small amount of servers, and a few failed cell phones they tried to push on us?

As mentioned earlier in this tread and confirmed by Google, linux may find a way to evolve into a mobile phone platform. But if Apple and Microsoft use their huge financial resource to put the boot in, linux will go back to dying. What you can be sure of is that its days as a desktop OS are numbered.

Why is it that many countries are moving in a direction that forbids Windows from being run on any government owned computer?  It is because the Linux kernel, as well as BSD, are open source and available for scrutiny, unlike Windows or OS X.  Anyone can look over the code, decide what the do and do not like, and then create their own version that only has what they want inside of it.

You are talking about a tiny market. One not large enough to sustain multiple distros. There will be a thinning out of linux platforms as the sector cannibalises itself, fighting over you and the last of your brethren.

My last point is that Linux and BSD will never die. 

They will. Google told me so.

My reasoning for this is that they are free, as in beer but also as in freedom, and many people will always want that.  ...  But, there will always be people who want a free operating system, or one that they can analyze to see what the code is, or one that allows almost infinite customization compared to Windows.

Linux is 'free' as in worthless. And 'people' don't want to analyse their OS. They don't want to have a fight with it every time they want new software or an update. They don't want to go to a forum where some kid will talk down his nose at them because they can't get their computer working. They just want a fat bloated OS with everything laid on ready to go and they know that although that will slow it down, its not going to slow them down as must as a bunch of kids telling them to lurk moar in a dark corner of the internet.


Its time. I hope he does the honourable thing.

Linux is 'free' as in worthless. And 'people' don't want to analyse their OS. They don't want to have a fight with it every time they want new software or an update. They don't want to go to a forum where some kid will talk down his nose at them because they can't get their computer working. They just want a fat bloated OS with everything laid on ready to go and they know that although that will slow it down, its not going to slow them down as must as a bunch of kids telling them to lurk moar in a dark corner of the internet.

Fo' real?

Windows is just as problematic, if not more. It comes with the bloatware as well as being a buggy setup. W7 has been kind to me on this PC, but on every other computer I've owned Windows has given me continuous problems.

A billion people can't be wrong.

http://news.softpedia.com/news/Microsoft-and-the-Dream-of-2-Billion-Windows-Users-by-2015-94284.shtml

W7 has been kind to me on this PC, but on every other computer I've owned Windows has given me continuous problems.

You need to learn how to use windows.

Quote from: jroa on September 26, 2011, 08:41:05 AM

Looking at search engine results only tells you how many people were curious to search for the term Linux.  It does not tell how many people are running the operating system on their computers.

If new people aren't interested in it, it won't grow. That's its problem. It isn't and hasn't for a long time, been attracting new users. The linux club made itself out to be exclusive. But sadly no one else gave a sh*t and that inaccessibility to the man in the street will be its undoing.

Did you even read the post you're supposedly replying to?  Your answer has nothing to do with the actual point he made.

All religions beat atheism, but Islam is the absolute google daddy

http://www.google.com/trends?q=atheism%2C+christianity%2C+islam%2C+judaism%2C+hinduism%2C+sikhism&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=1

I just wanted to examine this because I missed it the last time.

This is an example of misinterpretting what google is telling you. Lots of people google the word islam to find out why nut-jobs want to bomb us. Here are some better ways to get a picture. Lets look at things people associate with religion.

Church     Mosque

Click for source.

quran|qur'an|koran|curan|kuran     Bible

Click for source

muhammad|mohammed      Jesus

Click for source

When Christians are looking for religious stuff, they don't type Christian. They probably see themselves as Catholic or Methodist or Protestant anyway. By looking at say people hunting down bible quotes, or for a church or Jesus you get a better insight into who is interested. Note how 'Jesus' searches peak at Easter and xmas.

So no, I don't think Islam is the daddy. We just google it a lot to find out why a religion would order people to blow themselves up. [Spoiler-turns out there is nothing about blowing yourself up in the Qur'an.]

Also whilst it looks like people hunting for the quran is increasing year on year, it is important to note those are global figures. The figures are stagnant in the US.
quran|qur'an|koran|curan|kuran     Bible

Click for source
The increase in the global stats represents middle eastern countries coming on line as more of their users gain access to the internet. But its not an increase in religion as US and European figures for that matter, show. Conclusion - Islam is not the fastest growing religion in the world. Its hype.

Quote from: Thork on September 26, 2011, 09:53:05 AM

Quote from: jroa on September 26, 2011, 08:41:05 AM

Looking at search engine results only tells you how many people were curious to search for the term Linux.  It does not tell how many people are running the operating system on their computers.

If new people aren't interested in it, it won't grow. That's its problem. It isn't and hasn't for a long time, been attracting new users. The linux club made itself out to be exclusive. But sadly no one else gave a sh*t and that inaccessibility to the man in the street will be its undoing.

Dd you even read the post you're supposedly replying to?  Your answer has nothing to do with the actual point he made.

If he'd bothered reading the thread I covered exact numbers of people visiting distro download sites.