Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources

  • 18 Replies
  • 906 Views
Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« on: March 22, 2020, 01:30:36 PM »
This thread will be a collection of the best ressources regarding covid-19. Please reply with your own information/websites etc. and I will add them here.

Useful ressources
Best & most detailed map
https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/

Very detailed graphs about covid-19, worldwide and for each country
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Nice overview about epidemiology, treatment, prognosis etc.
https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19?source=history_widget#H3392906512

Websites with research
https://novel-coronavirus.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/

Center of disease control and prevention (CDC)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/

World health organization
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019


Personal protection
DIY facemask (from hongkong)
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3050689/how-make-your-own-mask-hong-kong-scientists

Can you reuse commercial masks? YES
The best and simplest method is to heat the masks to 75C for 30 min. This does not lower the mask's efficiency significiantly.
Obviously using a new mask every few hours is still preferable.
https://stanfordmedicine.app.box.com/v/covid19-PPE-1-2

Symptoms
Approx. 15-20% of cases are asymptomatic.
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30139-9/fulltext
Random tests in iceland and italy suggest that up to 50% of infected people are asymptomatic. Unfortuntately I couldn't find the papers for the studies in iceland and italy. I believe that both those papers failed to make a follow up, thus it's unknown how many might have gotten symptomatic after the positive test result.

Most common symptoms are fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath
(18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%), chills (11.4%),
nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%).

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf


Treatment
Standard of care is supportive/symptomatic (fluids, oxygen, mechanical ventilation etc) as well as treating complications (bacterial pneumonia etc).

Newest and most promising medication: Favipiravir
Time to viral clearance with FPV was 4d, vs 11d with LPV (Lopinavir)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095809920300631
Limitation: They only looked at people from age 16-80 with symptoms for less than 7 days

Chinese guidelines
https://video-intl.alicdn.com/Handbook%20of%20COVID-19%20Prevention%20and%20Treatment.pdf
Limitation: It's more anecdotal and not evidence based

No benefit with Lopinavir/Ritonavir
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001282
Limitation: A positive effect was observable (better outcome with treatment) but due to the sample size it was not significant. Further research required.

ACE-Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers do not have a negativ effect
https://www.escardio.org/Councils/Council-on-Hypertension-(CHT)/News/position-statement-of-the-esc-council-on-hypertension-on-ace-inhibitors-and-ang
Limitation: Those drugs may even have a positive effect. Further research to prove wether or not they have an effect (both positive or negative) is required.


Prognosis
The overall mortality is unknown. An educated guess would be somewhere between 0.5-2.5%.
It is said that around 80% of cases are 'mild' (thus don't need hospitalization or oxygen). About half of the critically ill die from the disease (numbers vary).
In hospitalized patients, death occured in an average 18.5d after onset and recovery after 22 days.
Recovery in mild cases takes around 2 weeks according to the WHO.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext#seccestitle150
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 02:07:40 AM by Definitely Not Swedish »

*

boydster

  • Assistant to the Regional Manager
  • Planar Moderator
  • 13868
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2020, 06:46:02 PM »
This site has the lastest info regarding infections, deaths, and recoveries from Johns Hopkins: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2020, 05:35:43 AM »
This site has the lastest info regarding infections, deaths, and recoveries from Johns Hopkins: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
It is a decent map aswell, but I prefer the one I suggested because it shows you the graphs with infections over time for each country.

Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2020, 07:31:38 AM »
This is also a good map.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Since it costs 1.82 to produce a penny, putting in your 2 if really worth 3.64.

Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2020, 10:45:27 AM »

*

Space Cowgirl

  • MOM
  • Administrator
  • 41415
  • Official FE Recruiter
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2020, 10:52:03 AM »
You might find this page interesting https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data
I'm sorry. Am I to understand that when you have a boner you like to imagine punching the shit out of Tom Bishop? That's disgusting.

Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2020, 04:37:50 AM »
Newly added:

Newest and most promising medication: Favipiravir
Time to viral clearance with FPV was 4d, vs 11d with LPV (Lopinavir)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095809920300631
Limitation: They only looked at people from age 16-80 with symptoms for less than 7 days; so whether or not this works for people 80 years and critically ill people (they usually have symptoms for >7d until they get critically ill) remains unknown.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 04:39:37 AM by Definitely Not Swedish »

*

Heiwa

  • 8005
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2020, 09:37:06 AM »
The invisible Covid-19 virus is like the fantastic US nuclear bombs stopping WW2 back in August 1945. https://ratemypoo.com/ . They were just fantastic, magic propaganda! They worked well. WW2 stopped at once. The idea was to say a months later that  a-bombs were a big JOKE but no. Sadly they are still around 75 years later. Same clowns are still at it. Only twerps believe in invisible virus.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 10:12:32 AM by Crouton »

*

Crouton

  • Flat Earth Inspector General of High Fashion Crimes and Misdemeanors
  • Planar Moderator
  • 10660
  • V is for Viceroy
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2020, 10:13:24 AM »
Heiwa,  I'm concerning that at your advanced age you are not properly distancing yourself socially.  Please take 3 days and be safe.
Intelligentia et magnanimitas vincvnt violentiam et desperationem.
The truth behind NASA's budget

Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2020, 11:45:55 AM »

*

Crouton

  • Flat Earth Inspector General of High Fashion Crimes and Misdemeanors
  • Planar Moderator
  • 10660
  • V is for Viceroy
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2020, 02:42:26 PM »
Another covid tracking site.

https://covidtracking.com/
Intelligentia et magnanimitas vincvnt violentiam et desperationem.
The truth behind NASA's budget

Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2020, 01:45:57 AM »
Can you reuse masks?

YES
The best and simplest method is to heat the masks to 75C for 30 min. This does not lower the mask's efficiency significiantly.
Obviously using a new mask every few hours is still preferable.
https://stanfordmedicine.app.box.com/v/covid19-PPE-1-2

*

Heiwa

  • 8005
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2020, 09:12:59 AM »
Can you reuse masks?

YES
The best and simplest method is to heat the masks to 75C for 30 min. This does not lower the mask's efficiency significiantly.
Obviously using a new mask every few hours is still preferable.
https://stanfordmedicine.app.box.com/v/covid19-PPE-1-2
But what happens to the corona viruses hiding in the mask?

*

boydster

  • Assistant to the Regional Manager
  • Planar Moderator
  • 13868
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2020, 09:19:21 AM »
Heiwa you can either take the nonsense to the forum it belongs or you can take a vacation.

*

rabinoz

  • 25653
  • Real Earth Believer
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2020, 06:07:39 PM »
Can you reuse masks?

YES
The best and simplest method is to heat the masks to 75C for 30 min. This does not lower the mask's efficiency significiantly.
Obviously using a new mask every few hours is still preferable.
https://stanfordmedicine.app.box.com/v/covid19-PPE-1-2
But what happens to the corona viruses hiding in the mask?
Can't you read?

Here try again!
The best and simplest method is to heat the masks to 75C for 30 min. This does not lower the mask's efficiency significiantly.
Obviously using a new mask every few hours is still preferable.
https://stanfordmedicine.app.box.com/v/covid19-PPE-1-2
But from the same source:
Quote
One area of concern was a misunderstanding about using home ovens 70C to disinfect masks and other equipment. None of us should take any contaminated materials home or leave them near food or drinking water as they present a risk to family and loved ones.

*

Crouton

  • Flat Earth Inspector General of High Fashion Crimes and Misdemeanors
  • Planar Moderator
  • 10660
  • V is for Viceroy
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2020, 06:53:46 PM »
Heiwa,

Don't make us angry.  You wouldn't like us when we're angry.
Intelligentia et magnanimitas vincvnt violentiam et desperationem.
The truth behind NASA's budget

*

Heiwa

  • 8005
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2020, 12:57:14 AM »
Heiwa,

Don't make us angry.  You wouldn't like us when we're angry.
? I only have friends. The rest I just ignore.

Re topic and that most common symptoms are fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath (18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%), chills (11.4%), nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%).
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
I had those too six weeks ago ... and ignored them.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 08:37:36 AM by Heiwa »

*

Space Cowgirl

  • MOM
  • Administrator
  • 41415
  • Official FE Recruiter
Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #17 on: April 01, 2020, 07:05:25 AM »
You know what else would help keep the crap out of this thread? Not replying to Heiwa. Okay rab? Crouton and boydster have been cleaning it up on a regular basis.
I'm sorry. Am I to understand that when you have a boner you like to imagine punching the shit out of Tom Bishop? That's disgusting.

Re: Covid-19: Information, papers, ressources
« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2020, 04:59:35 AM »
Estimating coronavirus underreporting using two methods:


First method
Idea: If there is an underreporting, then there should be more deaths in 2020 than in 2019, 2018, 2017 and 2016 AFTER I subtracted the reported corone deaths.
Step 1: Add together all deaths in week 1-17 in years 2016-2020 (mortality data from 24 countries)
Step 2: Calculated how many corone deaths those 24 countries have reported
Step 3: Subtract the corone deaths from the reported deaths in 2020
Step 4: Compare the number for 2020 to the numbers in 2016-2019 to see if there are still excess deaths
Step 5: If there is in fact an underreporting, then the deaths in 2020 (reported - corone deaths) should still be quite a bit higher than the death rates in 2016-2019.

Result
2020: 1085243 (all deaths) - 116470 (corone deaths) = 968773 deaths
2019: 984589 (all deaths)
2018: 1026022 (all deaths)
2017: 992529 (all deaths)
2016: 933109 (all deaths)

This means, that without the corone, looking at weeks 1-17 in 2019 there were 15816 deaths more, in 2018 there were 57249 deaths more, in 2017 23756 deaths more and 2016 was the only year with less deaths (35664) compared to the average of previous years.

Conclusion
There is a death excess in 2020 due to the covid-19 pandemic. After substracting the corona deaths, the mortality in 2020 is below the 2016-2019 average. This could be purely random or maybe due to fewer deaths because of the corona lockdowns (less accident, less influenza deaths etc). According to this method, there is no evidence for corona-death-underreporting.




Second method

Step 1:
Take this graph from euromomo:
It shows the excess deaths (=more than the average in the previous years, it usually above 0 in winter because of influenza etc)



Step 2
Now we assume that in 2020 the line would have been more or less straight if there was no coronavirus, which leads us to this graph:
(1) shows us the number of deaths that possibly would not have happend without coronavirus.


(1) is around 130000 deaths. Thus without the corone there might have been 130k less deaths.

For the countries included in the above statistic, there were 116.5k reported corone deaths. So 116.5 of those 130k excess deaths are reported coronavirus deaths.
 That gives us 13.5k unexplained deaths ('underreported' if you will). If we assume all those died because of the coronavirus (they most likely didn't), it would mean that the actual corona deaths are underreported by 10.4%.


And here is the summary of the excess deaths graph