Orlando shooting, thoughts?

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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #270 on: July 29, 2016, 05:07:45 PM »
Stats just document winners and losers.
Bingo. And they document that whether or not you have a gun doesn't really decide whether you'd be a winner or a loser. Why is that hard to grasp? If I'm going to be lugged into a coroner's van having a gun wouldn't actually make a difference. End of. You can't just ignore observed facts about the world based on arbitrary feeling.


If your attacker was the one being sent off to be processed
that would represent a difference.

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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #271 on: July 29, 2016, 05:27:58 PM »
If your attacker was the one being sent off to be processed
that would represent a difference.
Which doesn't happen because, yet again, the statistics demonstrate explicitly and undeniably whether or not you have a gun will not alter your fate.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Rama Set

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #272 on: July 29, 2016, 05:49:42 PM »
Stats just document winners and losers.
Bingo. And they document that whether or not you have a gun doesn't really decide whether you'd be a winner or a loser. Why is that hard to grasp? If I'm going to be lugged into a coroner's van having a gun wouldn't actually make a difference. End of. You can't just ignore observed facts about the world based on arbitrary feeling.

Luke can, he is a YEC. I'm not sure why Bullwinkle is having trouble though.
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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #273 on: July 29, 2016, 06:06:01 PM »
If your attacker was the one being sent off to be processed
that would represent a difference.
Which doesn't happen because, yet again, the statistics demonstrate explicitly and undeniably whether or not you have a gun will not alter your fate.


 :P

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Luke 22:35-38

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #274 on: July 30, 2016, 09:07:15 PM »
Anecdotes don't trump the stats given that the stats typically take those anecdotes into consideration.

Seriously, that alone pretty much rebuts your entire post.

32,000 people dying in car accidents is a stat but people defending themselves with guns 118 times a day isn't? How does that work?

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Though:

As I said before. Even conservative estimates say that people defend themselves 118 times a day. That's more than how many murders there are by more than 5 times.
At this stage you have to be doing this on purpose. That doesn't matter. The stats remain. It doesn't matter if you can find ten billion examples of people using guns to defend themselves, there are also plenty of instances with people not using guns to defend themselves, and when you compare the two guns offered no advantage. End of. End of discussion. Stop repeating yourself, stop wasting time, read, acknowledge, pay attention. Anecdotes don't trump stats.

I haven't found the source saying that people defend themselves as much without guns as with. Do you have a link?

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And finally:

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Still, compared to Australia New Zealand is less more laced. And btw Australia has as much if not more guns now than it did before the ban. Once you have 30 minutes to spare please watch at least one of them.

I'm in my MSc year, if I get 30 minutes free it'll be to sleep. If you can't be bothered to quote a linked source or write down a point, why should I take the time to watch and write down a rebuttal?

Ok, here's the sources.

https://board.freedomainradio.com/topic/34837-

http://louderwithcrowder.com/australian-gun-ownership-rises-gun-crime-remains-low-america-still-at-fault/
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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #275 on: July 31, 2016, 03:56:05 AM »
32,000 people dying in car accidents is a stat but people defending themselves with guns 118 times a day isn't? How does that work?

I haven't found the source saying that people defend themselves as much without guns as with. Do you have a link?
No, the stats are that guns don't help. And you have seen the source, I've linked to it multiple time already, and you only ever ignore it. If you want the direct study for clarity:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743515001188

If you want the highlights:
Of over 14,000 incidents in which the victim was present, 127 (0.9%) involved a SDGU (Self-defense gun use).
After any protective action, 4.2% of victims were injured; after SDGU, 4.1% of victims were injured.
In property crimes, 55.9% of victims who took protective action lost property, 38.5 of SDGU victims lost property, and 34.9% of victims who used a weapon other than a gun lost property.
Compared to other protective actions, the National Crime Victimization Surveys provide little evidence that SDGU is uniquely beneficial in reducing the likelihood of injury or property loss.

And the whole things covers both at and away from home incidents.

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Ok, here's the sources.

https://board.freedomainradio.com/topic/34837-

http://louderwithcrowder.com/australian-gun-ownership-rises-gun-crime-remains-low-america-still-at-fault/
First of those is just a link spam, most of which seems to be things we've already covered. Second link doesn't seem to understand how stats work. First graph's too poorly defined to be of use, second cuts off everything before the gun control legislation and so is useless for comparison, and the third shows the opposite of what they're claiming. Immediately after the ban there's a decrease. Yes, there's an upwards spike later, but there always is (just like there are before): any stats have uneven lines like that. indeed, the largest spike is 2001, long after the ban, and since then it's plummeted. What matters is the average, and I recall seeing another source which pointed out that the rate of change after gun control is actually a much steeper decrease, which I think I've linked to before.
https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2016/06/26/gun-control-did-it-reduce-suicides-and-homocides-in-australia/
Not the source I was thinking of, and biased, but you don't have to read it: just scroll down to the charts resulting from plain, unbiased stats. There's no increase, and no sign of people relying on other means to do harm: and it's a much more reliable form of graph too, plotting simply the data points rather than taking the freedom to imagine whatever curves you want between them.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Luke 22:35-38

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #276 on: July 31, 2016, 06:03:28 PM »
32,000 people dying in car accidents is a stat but people defending themselves with guns 118 times a day isn't? How does that work?

I haven't found the source saying that people defend themselves as much without guns as with. Do you have a link?
No, the stats are that guns don't help. And you have seen the source, I've linked to it multiple time already, and you only ever ignore it. If you want the direct study for clarity:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0091743515001188

If you want the highlights:
Of over 14,000 incidents in which the victim was present, 127 (0.9%) involved a SDGU (Self-defense gun use).

Right off the bat that's not true. There was over a million violent crimes and thus a million victims in 2009 alone.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/violent-crime/violent-crime


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After any protective action, 4.2% of victims were injured; after SDGU, 4.1% of victims were injured.
In property crimes, 55.9% of victims who took protective action lost property, 38.5 of SDGU victims lost property, and 34.9% of victims who used a weapon other than a gun lost property.
Compared to other protective actions, the National Crime Victimization Surveys provide little evidence that SDGU is uniquely beneficial in reducing the likelihood of injury or property loss.

And the whole things covers both at and away from home incidents.

Which is also not true.

http://www.guncite.com/gcdgklec.html

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Ok, here's the sources.

https://board.freedomainradio.com/topic/34837-

http://louderwithcrowder.com/australian-gun-ownership-rises-gun-crime-remains-low-america-still-at-fault/
First of those is just a link spam, most of which seems to be things we've already covered. Second link doesn't seem to understand how stats work. First graph's too poorly defined to be of use, second cuts off everything before the gun control legislation and so is useless for comparison, and the third shows the opposite of what they're claiming. Immediately after the ban there's a decrease. Yes, there's an upwards spike later, but there always is (just like there are before): any stats have uneven lines like that. indeed, the largest spike is 2001, long after the ban, and since then it's plummeted. What matters is the average, and I recall seeing another source which pointed out that the rate of change after gun control is actually a much steeper decrease, which I think I've linked to before.
https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2016/06/26/gun-control-did-it-reduce-suicides-and-homocides-in-australia/
Not the source I was thinking of, and biased, but you don't have to read it: just scroll down to the charts resulting from plain, unbiased stats. There's no increase, and no sign of people relying on other means to do harm: and it's a much more reliable form of graph too, plotting simply the data points rather than taking the freedom to imagine whatever curves you want between them.

Japan has a high suicide rate and they have strict gun control. In fact their suicide rate is higher than ours. As to Australian gun ownership they had around 3 million guns before the ban and roughly the same after.
The Bible doesn't support a flat earth.

Scripture, facts, science, stats, and logic is how I argue.

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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #277 on: August 01, 2016, 02:40:09 AM »
Right off the bat that's not true. There was over a million violent crimes and thus a million victims in 2009 alone.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2010/crime-in-the-u.s.-2010/violent-crime/violent-crime

Which is also not true.

http://www.guncite.com/gcdgklec.html
First, statistics crash course: in many cases you need to analyse millions of incidents. This may as well be impossible, because typically the detailed data isn't available in these situations, as it isn't in this case: you can find a lot of lists of how many crimes occur, but never any details into all of them. And even if that information was available, that's way too many cases to sort through. So, instead, analysts take samples: a sufficiently large random sample ought to give a good indication of the overall behaviour. That's what this study did. It's how stats work: it's what the second link did, for that matter.
Secondly, that second link is the definition of a biased source. It gives literally no reason for rejecting the data beyond "It doesn't feel right compared with our agenda," and you just need to look at the data to realise it's a mess. Apparently over five years gun are used barely over twice the rate of the last year. Either there's some serious misremembering going on, or false positives.

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Japan has a high suicide rate and they have strict gun control. In fact their suicide rate is higher than ours. As to Australian gun ownership they had around 3 million guns before the ban and roughly the same after.
Japan also literally works people to death, alternative factors are definitely at play. Someone desperate for suicide can take any option: the usual depressive explanation usually involves people essentially making the attempt on the spur of the moment.
I'd point out that the requirement for licenses etc, ie gun control, still seems to have worked just fine in Australia.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #278 on: August 01, 2016, 02:53:12 AM »
Defend yourself once.

100% success rate.

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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #279 on: August 01, 2016, 02:58:23 AM »
Defend yourself once.

100% success rate.

You're not the only one in the world. And sorry, doesn't work like that.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #280 on: August 01, 2016, 03:16:08 AM »
Defend yourself once.

100% success rate.

You're not the only one in the world. And sorry, doesn't work like that.


Billions of folks on the planet.

Victim is a choice.

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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #281 on: August 01, 2016, 04:01:43 AM »
Defend yourself once.

100% success rate.

You're not the only one in the world. And sorry, doesn't work like that.


Billions of folks on the planet.

Victim is a choice.

No. Nothing works like that. And the stats remain, having a gun doesn't help, end of, no matter what you'd like to be true.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #282 on: August 01, 2016, 05:14:12 AM »
Defend yourself once.

100% success rate.

You're not the only one in the world. And sorry, doesn't work like that.


Billions of folks on the planet.

Victim is a choice.

No. Nothing works like that. And the stats remain, having a gun doesn't help, end of, no matter what you'd like to be true.


I have a feeling we are not going to agree on this.   ;)


You make passionate arguments. I respect that.

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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #283 on: August 01, 2016, 05:27:15 AM »
You make passionate arguments. I respect that.
And fact-based rather than feeling-based, I'm afraid.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #284 on: August 01, 2016, 05:46:05 AM »
You make passionate arguments. I respect that.
And fact-based rather than feeling-based, I'm afraid.


Don't be afraid. Someone will come to your defense well after the fact. Just too late.

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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #285 on: August 01, 2016, 06:05:49 AM »
You make passionate arguments. I respect that.
And fact-based rather than feeling-based, I'm afraid.
Don't be afraid. Someone will come to your defense well after the fact. Just too late.
And having a gun wouldn't help me in any way, so hey, sorry about the facts.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #286 on: August 01, 2016, 06:11:20 AM »
You make passionate arguments. I respect that.
And fact-based rather than feeling-based, I'm afraid.
Don't be afraid. Someone will come to your defense well after the fact. Just too late.
And having a gun wouldn't help me in any way, so hey, sorry about the facts.


Self defense never works.  ::)

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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #287 on: August 01, 2016, 06:27:39 AM »
Self defense never works.  ::)

Self defence is fine, but as the stats show guns don't help with that. Facts matter more than feelings. And given you're just ensuring every criminal will have them...
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #288 on: August 01, 2016, 06:44:23 AM »
Self defence is fine, but as the stats show guns don't help with that.

What does?

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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #289 on: August 01, 2016, 06:46:20 AM »
Self defence is fine, but as the stats show guns don't help with that.

What does?
Are you really saying you don't know how to defend yourself without a gun? Arms, legs, bats...
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #290 on: August 01, 2016, 07:08:20 AM »
Self defence is fine, but as the stats show guns don't help with that.

What does?
Are you really saying you don't know how to defend yourself without a gun? Arms, legs, bats...

None of those things will deflect a bullet. Statistically.

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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #291 on: August 01, 2016, 07:39:37 AM »
Self defence is fine, but as the stats show guns don't help with that.

What does?
Are you really saying you don't know how to defend yourself without a gun? Arms, legs, bats...

None of those things will deflect a bullet. Statistically.

You can deflect a bullet with a gun? That's impressive.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #292 on: August 01, 2016, 09:15:56 AM »
Bullwinkle vs dealer, unarmed: Both alive and unscratched, because unarmed Bullwinkle was seen as not a threat.

Bullwinkle vs dealer, armed: one or both of them either injured or dead, as Bullwinkle would have felt compelled to use the weapon and start a fight.

Sounds like a good example to show how guns don't exactly help. Thank you, Bullwinkle, to share your experience with us.

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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #293 on: August 01, 2016, 09:55:51 AM »
Self defence is fine, but as the stats show guns don't help with that.

What does?
Are you really saying you don't know how to defend yourself without a gun? Arms, legs, bats...

None of those things will deflect a bullet. Statistically.

You can deflect a bullet with a gun? That's impressive.


You're just being silly for no reason.
 

I'm disabled.
Left knee ACL, PCL, MCL and a wee bit of meniscus damage.
I ambulate at a comfortable pace. I can't run away.

Flail your arms and legs and bat all you want.
Not at all effective if your attacker is more than three feet away.

I would never, ever, use my defensive tool to protect anyone else.
You want to hide and hope and shout out stats? Your choice.


Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #294 on: August 01, 2016, 10:05:56 AM »
Self defence is fine, but as the stats show guns don't help with that.

What does?
Are you really saying you don't know how to defend yourself without a gun? Arms, legs, bats...
I prefer something that gives me the greatest advantage over whatever is attacking me.  Fair fights are for the ring, backyard "who's the better fighter" fights, or perhaps the bar. 

I was up in the mountains over the weekend, and was carrying a large caliber handgun, because going up with bare fists against a mountain goat is pretty much guaranteed to result in one's death. 

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Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #295 on: August 01, 2016, 10:20:00 AM »
Bullwinkle vs dealer, unarmed: Both alive and unscratched, because unarmed Bullwinkle was seen as not a threat.

Bullwinkle vs dealer, armed: one or both of them either injured or dead, as Bullwinkle would have felt compelled to use the weapon and start a fight.

Sounds like a good example to show how guns don't exactly help. Thank you, Bullwinkle, to share your experience with us.

I understand what you are saying.
It was way more dynamic than that.

I saw what was coming and I was powerless to participate in my survival.
He chose to not kill me. His choice. His whim.

I don't want to sound trite, but you really had to be there.


So far, I've lived happily ever after.   :)

Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #296 on: August 01, 2016, 10:27:43 AM »
Bullwinkle vs dealer, unarmed: Both alive and unscratched, because unarmed Bullwinkle was seen as not a threat.

Bullwinkle vs dealer, armed: one or both of them either injured or dead, as Bullwinkle would have felt compelled to use the weapon and start a fight.

Sounds like a good example to show how guns don't exactly help. Thank you, Bullwinkle, to share your experience with us.

I understand what you are saying.
It was way more dynamic than that.

I saw what was coming and I was powerless to participate in my survival.
He chose to not kill me. His choice. His whim.

I don't want to sound trite, but you really had to be there.


So far, I've lived happily ever after.   :)

Exactly, you're alive. Had you been armed, things would have been different. Even if everything had gone right, you would have killed someone. That's not something I'd want to live with. Do you?

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Slemon

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #297 on: August 01, 2016, 11:22:21 AM »
Look, the facts are these: when it comes to self defence, no matter what you may want to be the case, the stats are in and demonstrate clearly guns offer no advantage.
It's a rare civilian that could aim and fire accurately any meaningful distance when they think they're in danger. Even more so one that could do it quickly enough that the criminal wouldn't notice and aim in turn. There's the thought-experiment for you, but even beyond that the stats remain.
Selfishness is no argument. Sure, maybe you'd feel comfier with a gun, and maybe you're even one of the rare few with the necessary skills to use it in such a setting, but that's no excuse to make it easier for every criminal coming after you to be armed.

If you can run to hide or attack, do so. If you have a medical condition that prevents you from doing so, then you'd be a stationary target with or without a gun so your best bet would be to not come across as a threat.

Stats aren't a defence, they just give a better picture than a one-off incident. End of. That's how they work, and there's no ignoring them. The fact you had a bad experience is no excuse to just outright ignore facts.
We all know deep in our hearts that Jane is the last face we'll see before we're choked to death!

*

Bullwinkle

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Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #298 on: August 01, 2016, 12:55:59 PM »
Bullwinkle vs dealer, unarmed: Both alive and unscratched, because unarmed Bullwinkle was seen as not a threat.

Bullwinkle vs dealer, armed: one or both of them either injured or dead, as Bullwinkle would have felt compelled to use the weapon and start a fight.

Sounds like a good example to show how guns don't exactly help. Thank you, Bullwinkle, to share your experience with us.

I understand what you are saying.
It was way more dynamic than that.

I saw what was coming and I was powerless to participate in my survival.
He chose to not kill me. His choice. His whim.

I don't want to sound trite, but you really had to be there.


So far, I've lived happily ever after.   :)

Exactly, you're alive. Had you been armed, things would have been different. Even if everything had gone right, you would have killed someone. That's not something I'd want to live with. Do you?


This is not easy to describe.

I would be way more comfortable with him dead than me.


Re: Orlando shooting, thoughts?
« Reply #299 on: August 01, 2016, 01:22:59 PM »
Bullwinkle vs dealer, unarmed: Both alive and unscratched, because unarmed Bullwinkle was seen as not a threat.

Bullwinkle vs dealer, armed: one or both of them either injured or dead, as Bullwinkle would have felt compelled to use the weapon and start a fight.

Sounds like a good example to show how guns don't exactly help. Thank you, Bullwinkle, to share your experience with us.

I understand what you are saying.
It was way more dynamic than that.

I saw what was coming and I was powerless to participate in my survival.
He chose to not kill me. His choice. His whim.

I don't want to sound trite, but you really had to be there.


So far, I've lived happily ever after.   :)

Exactly, you're alive. Had you been armed, things would have been different. Even if everything had gone right, you would have killed someone. That's not something I'd want to live with. Do you?


This is not easy to describe.

I would be way more comfortable with him dead than me.

What about both alive and well?

It's easy to say "I'll kill him". Doing so, and dealing with the consequences, is completely different. Even profesional soldiers tend to miss on purpose to avoid such an experience. I doubt we're any different. And neither are petty criminals. The only reason they use weapons is because the chances their victim is armed are also high. They're defending themselves of you, or at most just trying to scare you, to be able to leave with some money and do whatever they need it for.