War

Good God, y'all!

So, we've sent "lethal aid" to Ukraine and now we're threatening to sanction Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-seeks-protect-europes-energy-supplies-if-russia-invades-ukraine-2022-01-25/

Archive https://archive.is/dVWYG

WASHINGTON/MOSCOW, Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday he would consider personal sanctions on President Vladimir Putin if Russia invades Ukraine, as Western leaders stepped up military preparations and made plans to shield Europe from a potential energy supply shock.

The rare sanctions threat came as NATO places forces on standby and reinforces eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets in response to Russia's troop build-up near its border with Ukraine.

Russia denies planning an attack and says the crisis is being driven by NATO and U.S. actions. It is demanding security guarantees from the West, including a promise by NATO never to admit Ukraine. Moscow sees the former Soviet republic as a buffer between Russia and NATO countries.

It also seems that some of the same journalists who pushed Iraq are pushing for Ukraine.

Do you think it's inevitable now? Another forever war?

I saw this shit on Gettr, really makes me wonder, is this the start of another Cold war?

From what I can tell if it is a forever war then it's Russia's forever war against Ukraine.  I've read in a few places that Ukraine is preparing for an Iraq/Afghanistan style of resistance.

Biden's position is currently not getting the US directly involved.  Though it seems we have no problem making defense contractors rich in this situation.

I've also read an opinion that if Russia was going to invade then it would have done it by now.  Putin is spooked and he's trying to find a way out that saves face.  Don't know if that's true or not.

I sort of wonder if this is really just a ploy to hold onto Crimea.

If the US and NATO keep sending the war machine over there, it will force his hand into battle. Which is what Biden wants.

Russia and Ukraine should join NATO at the same time. The military contractors will all have a good cry!

Its not impossible he really does want Ukraine to be a buffer zone for NATO.  If Ukraine joins, then the western border of Russia js gonna have a big chunk bordering a NATO member.  And if Russia is afraid if NATO, that would do it.

Maybe the solution is to not have Ukrain join but give them NATO like guarentees of defense.  Just without the bases and official NATO rules.

I'd be all for that if they gave back the parts of Ukraine that they've already seized.

I feel that people overlook this part of the situation.  This invasion began 8 years ago.  Russia is clearly the aggressor here.

Ukraine had a deal where they gave up their nukes in return for their independance, and border guarantees. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine

Part of the Budapest agreement was as follows...

1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.


The Russians already broke the agreement by annexing Crimea,  so all bets are off already.

A more flagrant violation of Ukraine borders would almost compel the US to act.

Yeah that's another thing I've that for some reason no one brings up.

Maybe we should give them back their nukes if we're not interested in our side of the deal.

If the US and NATO keep sending the war machine over there, it will force his hand into battle. Which is what Biden wants.

Putin didn’t need any forcing to annex the Crimea. 

Here, on display, are AI, bots demanding the US serve the border interests of another country, while cheering the continued breeching of the US border.

Laughable.

Do you think it's inevitable now? Another forever war?

No and Russia cannot afford a forever war.   

Russia's GDP isn't that much bigger than Florida's...and a significant part of it is pumping gas into Europe.  If they actually invade Ukraine, watch everyone scramble to move off Russia's pipelines to tanker deliveries. 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/25/us-europe-russia-gas-supplies-energy

That's a short term measure, but long term I reckon everyone but Germany is already planning it.  And even Germany must be making contingency plans.

There is also no appetite for it back in  Russia, if it went wrong it could take down Putin and ruin his legacy, which at the moment is pretty secure if he does nothing.

Why do we care about Ukraine so much that we would have 2 world superpowers plunged in a war for? It's madness

Ukraine doesn't need NATO military bases or backup. In fact, no European country really 'needs' it. Not when you have a President of America who could facilitate the landing of a nuke within 30 minutes anywhere on the Earth at any time.

Although I hope they dont resort to nuclear warfare over a 3rd rate and corrupt country like Ukraine. America should worry about it's own backyard before involving itself in others.

Well, ultimately if Russia wants to invade it can, but the West needs to make sure there are serious consequences.  Economic, diplomatic and whatever.

Do you really think Putin should be able to invade a sovereign state of 40 million people and everyone should just go "Hey, that's cool bro".

I should imagine you'd feel quite different if a dictator's troops were queuing up to invade your 3rd rate country.

Well, ultimately if Russia wants to invade it can, but the West needs to make sure there are serious consequences.  Economic, diplomatic and whatever.

Do you really think Putin should be able to invade a sovereign state of 40 million people and everyone should just go "Hey, that's cool bro".

I should imagine you'd feel quite different if a dictator's troops were queuing up to invade your 3rd rate country.

Where did I suggest that we just 'let Russia do as it pleases'? I just don't think every solution to a problem is one that involves war and bloodshed

Economic punishment would be the real stinger. Not a bloody war throwing bodies at each other

Russia needs 'The West'. It's economy is heavily dependent on European customers for their products (eg oil). Europe can survive without Russia but Russia cant survive no longer being a player in the global marketplace

There is little appetite in Russia for an invasion of Ukraine. It would also cost a shit load of money they don't have, not just in trying to take it but in keeping it. Add to the fact if they did, Europe sure as shit wont be doing business with them.

If simply agreeing that Ukraine wont have NATO military and bases and that avoids a war - then just fucking do it. Sit at a table and hammer out an agreement with the knowledge that not everyone is going to get everything they want but everyone can walk away with something they want. Then everyone can save face for their respective audiences back home.

If simply agreeing that Ukraine wont have NATO military and bases and that avoids a war - then just fucking do it. Sit at a table and hammer out an agreement with the knowledge that not everyone is going to get everything they want but everyone can walk away with something they want.

This might be true, however you can't just concede everything Putin wants because he's waving his dick about.  All that will show him is every time he wants a concession on anything he just has to roll out the tanks and threaten someone with war.   He'll be at this shit every week until Nato is disbanded and Australia is sold to the Chinese.

It's not up to him to say who has Nato membership.  And in terms of Nato, what will be their "something they want."?  What is Putin going to concede?

Europe is very dependant on russian gas.
Far far too dependant.  They want to go green and are trying very hard to get away from gas completely but that'll take too long.

They need Russia to not be evil right now.

Quote from: Shifter on January 26, 2022, 06:42:53 AM

If simply agreeing that Ukraine wont have NATO military and bases and that avoids a war - then just fucking do it. Sit at a table and hammer out an agreement with the knowledge that not everyone is going to get everything they want but everyone can walk away with something they want.

This might be true, however you can't just concede everything Putin wants because he's waving his dick about.  All that will show him is every time he wants a concession on anything he just has to roll out the tanks and threaten someone with war.   He'll be at this shit every week until Nato is disbanded and Australia is sold to the Chinese.

It's not up to him to say who has Nato membership.  And in terms of Nato, what will be their "something they want."?  What is Putin going to concede?

I'm just a pleb who is tired of rich and powerful arseholes playing brinkmanship that threatens the safety of billions of people. Putin is an arsehole and every other word with a negative connotation you can think of. But he's old and he'll die soon enough anyway

Objectively - Ukraine is not worth the effort or the trust
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine

Corruption is widespread in Ukrainian society.[1][2] In 2012 Ernst & Young put Ukraine among the three most-corrupt nations of the world - alongside Colombia and Brazil.[3] In 2015 The Guardian called Ukraine "the most corrupt nation in Europe".[4] According to a poll conducted by Ernst & Young in 2017, experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation in the world.[5] According to the Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, Ukraine ranked 117th out of 180 countries in 2020, ranking the second lowest in Europe, after Russia.[6]

Maybe Ukraine should be told to get its shit together first before joining the EU and entering NATO.

Objectively - Ukraine is not worth the effort or the trust
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine

Yes, it's a deeply corrupt country.  I have close family who live there, remember?  My brother has to deal with the corruption on a daily basis.    I hear all sorts of stuff.

None of that means that the 40 million people who live in the country don't deserve protecting from a dictator's tanks rolling though their houses.   Or that Ukraine's sovereignty isn't as valid as anyone else's.   

It should also be pointed out, that despite the deep corruption they actually had free and fair elections and elected an outsider.  Unlike most of the other ex-soviet states, including Russia.

Maybe Ukraine should be told to get its shit together first before joining the EU and entering NATO.

It hasn't a hope of being allowed into the EU anytime soon and NATO membership is still hypothetical.

Quote from: Shifter on January 26, 2022, 08:30:57 AM

Objectively - Ukraine is not worth the effort or the trust
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine

Yes, it's a deeply corrupt country.  I have close family who live there, remember?  My brother has to deal with the corruption on a daily basis.    I hear all sorts of stuff.

None of that means that the 40 million people who live in the country don't deserve protecting from a dictator's tanks rolling though their houses.   Or that Ukraine's sovereignty isn't as valid as anyone else's.   

It should also be pointed out, that despite the deep corruption they actually had free and fair elections and elected an outsider.  Unlike most of the other ex-soviet states, including Russia.

Quote

Maybe Ukraine should be told to get its shit together first before joining the EU and entering NATO.

It hasn't a hope of being allowed into the EU anytime soon and NATO membership is still hypothetical.

If Russia hasn't rolled in any tanks, then we shouldn't apply this stupid brinkmanship style talks to egg that situation on.

In every negotiation, every side demands a ridiculous set of conditions that they know they wont get. The idea is to make each side think they 'won' by agreeing to 'concessions'. So Russia 'demanding' NATO may as well be disbanded knows that will never be accepted. So maybe they'll just be 'happy' with an 'assurance' Ukraine will never be a part of NATO. It wont be all that long before Putin is dusty bones. He wont be leading Russia forever and we can only hope Russia's next leader wont be as much of a dickhead as Putin and America can 'reneg' on the deal then

If Putin crosses the line, Europe can stop doing business with them. Easier said then done I know. Europe should have started pivoting its dependence away from Russia long ago the way Australia should have with China. Having a large percentage of your economy and products hinged on countries with strongman dictators is just not stable or secure.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/26/ukraine-militia-bleed-russia/

Archive - https://archive.is/dE9Om

Looks like Ukraine is arming militias.

It's probably a smart move.  Especially to promote it.  The name of the game is making an invasion of Ukraine so expensive that it's just not worth it.

I've got to say the reaction from some on the left is a little strange.  It's like seeing a video of a police shooting and automatically assuming that it was murder.  I think people forget that every once in a great while we're not the assholes in a conflict.

I've seen some of them compare it to Obama arming the Libyans and I've seen one compare the militias to Nazis. I don't even know. lol

I've seen some of them compare it to Obama arming the Libyans and I've seen one compare the militias to Nazis. I don't even know. lol

Aren't the militias supposedly helping prevent the Russians from invading? That seems like the opposite of the Nazis, who were very pro-invasion. Arming the Libyans was a pretty questionable move though - sometimes I suspect Obama never even watched Back to the Future.

I think they are just flailing around looking for something to criticize the US for, but we haven't really done anything yet, so NAZIS.

Arming Libyan rebels is most definitely a different situation.  We were trying to destabilize a country, probably a really bad idea.

This is obviously defensive.  I'm not sure where the nazi thing is coming from exactly.  I've heard it somewhere but I don't know what it's supposed to mean.  I found this from a website I've never heard of so I don't know how accurate this is.  https://www.jacobinmag.com/2022/01/cia-neo-nazi-training-ukraine-russia-putin-biden-nato

Other arguments against us doing anything to stop this I've heard;

We had an agreement to not add more nations to NATO and we broke that agreement.  So it's okay for Russia to invade Ukraine.  As far as I can tell this was something that came up in negotiations like 40 years ago and never advanced to any formal agreement.

This morning I saw a video where they claimed we were antagonizing Russia by stationing nuclear bombs in Turkey.  But I looked it up and we've been steadily reducing nukes stationed in Turkey and other countries since 2000.

I'm getting the impression that a certain amount of Russian propaganda is working its way into this situation.  Which is difficult to pull apart since there's always American propaganda in these things.

Funny timing with the trumpness.

woudlve thought the push pre2019 would make more sense

I think it was quite a common for supporters of Yanukovych (and/or Putin) to claim that the unrest that led to him being ousted were organised by fascists backed by the US and EU.  I guess the Nazi thing is probably an extension of that.  I don’t doubt the far right got stuck in when it kicked off though, they seem to like that kind of thing.

Somebody is yanking Tucker Carlson's chain.  He's gone full on Kremlin propaganda shill.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/nov/26/tucker-carlson-rooting-for-russia-fox-news

Not forgetting he did a weeklong special supporting Victor Orban....    Next up, it will be the Tucker Carlson Show on RT.

I think they are just flailing around looking for something to criticize the US for, but we haven't really done anything yet, so NAZIS.

Some of the Ukrainian Militias are probably pretty close to real Nazis.  The right wing Azov group looks a likely candidate.  Weird that Tucker isn't on board with them?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion